Big big sound taking a big big risk.

Big big sound taking a big big risk.

GuyWhoLikesSport

I want GWS to win the premiership.

I love their team.

They have the best, most varied forward line in football.

They’re the only team where their star small forward can be the one that jumps with a two key defenders and halves a contest and their third best tall forward is a good enough athlete to crumb a goal.

They also seem to have a never-ending supply of pressure small forwards. They’re like the ford factory pumping out carbon copies of the same high-IQ, fast, hard-working small forward.

Darcy Jones is the latest.

Their midfield is greatly improved from earlier in the season with the addition of real juice in the form of Toby Bedford and James Peatling, while still housing stars like Josh Kelly and Tom Green.

Their defence is also elite, particularly with the return of Sam Taylor to support Jack Buckley and Connor Idun.

On paper, this team is as good as it gets.

Om the field they have been elite as well winning each of their last six games, three of those wins against finals contenders Brisbane, Hawthorn and Melbourne. Their win against Brisbane, who themselves were on a nine-game tear, was spectacular.

Their fourth quarter was an astonishing mix of will and skill headlined by unsung players in Jones, Cadman and Finn Callaghan complementing the dominant Jesse Hogan.

While Jones has got most of the plaudits, I want to zero in on Cadman. Last year he had one of the worst seasons by a number 1 pick in recent league history.

This year, though, has been a different story.

He’s not been dominant by any stretch but there have been flashes where he’s looked like he could be anything. He’s played 19 games this year and while he’s only averaged 7 disposals and a goal per game, there have been real moments where his athleticism has matched his nous.

But his career-best highlight was in the last quarter against Brisbane.

He, of course, kicked three goals, my favourite being his absurd crumb off Toby Greene’s fly that I described in the open to make it 64-64.

He’s also like an X-man athletically.

In the final term, Zac Bailey picked up a ball at a contest and looked like he was about to fly out of there with the score sitting at 70-64 for GWS. Cadman was on the deck and just flung his arms up to catch Bailey, but he was so strong that Bailey had no choice but to go down and it forced another stoppage.

If he puts it together, he could be anything.

GWS’ numbers on the whole are pretty good as well. This isn’t a 2011 Philadelphia Eagles Dream Team situation where they’re good on paper and bad on grass.

Over their last five games, all wins, GWS are the number two handball receive team and the number three metreage team.

They run and run and run offensively.

However they’re not trying to be the best at exercise, they run for a reason.

They’re fourth in the AFL over that give game period in marks inside 50 per inside 50 and are sixth in total marks inside 50. They’re also top for goals per inside 50.

In terms of scoring profile, unsurprisingly they score heavily from the back half but are also a strong stoppage scoring side, sitting third in the league in both of those metrics over the last five matches.

Defensively they’re also sturdy.

They’re the third stingiest scoring defence in the league over the last five games, which included games against high scoring teams like Brisbane and Hawthorn. Over the same period, they give up the fewest goals and the third fewest scoring shots per inside 50 while being the best in the league at defending scores from the back half.

Even though they commit numbers forward, they’re not vulnerable. They’re a bit of a dogfight football team, where they attack and defend at the same time.

Except their game makes sense, unlike that scene in Top Gun: Maverick which was only included to get people horny.

But if you dig a little deeper, there are some stats that indicate there’s some luck at play for them.

Over the last five games, they have been the most accurate team in the AFL by 4.6%. The gap between them and number two is bigger than the gap between number two and number five. That shows in inflated goals per inside 50 number where they lead the league over the last five games, but they are 12th in shots per inside 50.

Against Brisbane, they kicked 13.4.

You can’t realistically rely on that week after week, even with the straight kicks on their team.

Defensively it’s a similar story. GWS opponents have been the least accurate shots for goal in the league and in turn GWS have been the most efficient defence. However, again, the shots per inside 50 tells something of a different story as GWS sit sixth in that number.

It’s better than their own scoring, but again it seems hard to sustain.

Those numbers show up in the expected margins in their recent run of wins. While they have won six straight, by expected score they’re 3-3.

“Well what about real score?” I hear you yelling. I am aware that they won, and I love watching them so I’m glad that they did, but they’re flying by the seat of their pants.

Separate to that, their game style is less sustainable than others. Last year they were an excellent turnover and front half scoring team, generally an easier way to score than their patented orange tsunami style run from the back half.

In 2023 they scored 52.5 points from turnover, good for fifth in the league, and 45.7 points from the forward half. This year, on the other hand, on the other hand, they’re scoring 48.3 points off turnover and 42.3 from the forward half, which is 9th and 8th, respectively.

Those numbers have also both dropped over the last five games to 39.4 and 38, which is 11th and 13th.

This year it’s like they’re in Japan in 2011. It’s all tsunami. They sit third in scoring from the back half over the last five.

Collingwood won like that last year I accept, but the competition is better this season and I’m still treating that Pies win as exception rather than rule.

These worries also show up in the premiership metrics.

Despite being second on the AFL ladder, they’re eighth in the premiership metrics. Part of the reason for that low ranking is that they’re 12th in shot at goal differential. GWS is also 11th in turnover differential and 12th in inside 50 differential.

In short, GWS is scoring when they go inside 50 and opponents aren’t. That’s like being a chef, a hard way to live.

I know that it’s hard to measure the size of the fight in the dog and these metrics measure the size of the dog in the fight. I also know that GWS are just about the most resilient outfit in football, and they have so much belief.

I’m just saying that this is a hard way to live.

 

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