The Lions are back, and they’re dangerous.

The Lions are back, and they’re dangerous.

GuyWhoLikesSport

Beware the sleeping not quite giant. They’ll strike when you least expect it.

After having been written off by most of the footy public in light of a 2-5 start, Brisbane have won four of their last six games and drawn one while scoring over 100 in their last three.

At 13th on the ladder but sitting only a game out of finals and with the third best percentage in the AFL, the Lions look primed to play spoiler to some young upstart team who is excited to play in September.

I have long described Brisbane as a Mission: Impossible football team. They’re an attractive, fast-moving, ultimately unsubstantial side that will thrill onlookers but not ultimately win anything of consequence.

That doesn’t mean they’re bad. There’s nothing bad about this sequence, just like there’s nothing bad about Brisbane.

No team in the AFL is better at going slow in service of going fast. When in possession, the Lions are happy to chip the ball around. They sit top of the league in uncontested marks by nearly 10 per game, not because they’re boring but because they kick the ball well in defence, going from side to side in the hope that the opposition zone stretches out enough for Brisbane to attack the corridor or find an aggressive kick.

Then, when it’s go-time, they’re off to the races. They explode forward like they’re actual lions hunting gazelles and get the ball to what has been an underperforming forward line with real speed and consistency, as they sit first in inside 50s and third in marks inside 50.

Brisbane is also still the second-best clearance team in the AFL, the second-best contested ball differential team. They’re also the second-best expected score differential team and the second-best defence in the AFL by expected score.

Statistically, again, this team is a juggernaut, except in the forward line.

Brisbane’s season long-scoring numbers are well down on last season. On the season, they’re sixth at scoring from turnover (second last year) and sixth at scoring from stoppage (second last year). In terms of where they score from, they’re seventh at scoring from the defensive half (sixth last year), fifth from the forward half (second last year), and 15th from centre bounce (12th last year).

Literally every scoring number, including, predictably, total points is down on last year.

In large part, it’s easy to blame it on the forwards. And I will.

Eric Hipwood just isn’t good.

I will not allow his good game this season against the worst Ross Lyon defensive game in living memory cloud that knowledge. He’s almost an almost player.

Joe Daniher is slightly down on output as well.

Kai Lohmann has been a solid find this season and Cam Rayner is having a career best season, but around them a forward line cannot be built. That would be like making the movie with Spike Jonze as the lead.

The linchpin of the forward line, however, over the course of the run has been Charlie Cameron. He’s the Leonardo DiCaprio.

And poor old Charlie just isn’t playing well.

His player rating of 5.88 this season is the worst number of his career and about half of his rating of 10.58 last season. By player ratings he is the 77th best medium forward in the AFL this season, just under Jack Ginnivan and Nick Holman.

Last year he was 12th.

His average of 1.5 goals this year would be the worst since his final year at Adelaide where he was playing second fiddle to Eddie Betts.

Having said all of that, there are signs of life at least among the team-wide scoring numbers.

Over the last 5 games, the stretch that comprises most of the run I wrote about at the top, Brisbane are the best at scoring from turnover, and third best from stoppage. They’re the heaviest forward and defensive half scoring team, and they’re 10th at scoring from centre bounce.

 

They’re also first in expected score, and first in expected score per shot which means they’re getting very easy shots.

That’s a scoring profile you can build off.

Even if their forwards are a down, the fact that they can generate so many scores from easy shots off turnovers and scintillating ball movement means that their forwards almost can’t help but score goals. They’re propped up by the rest of the team.

That’s how Joel Amartey kicks 9 goals in a game.

The other key thing has been moving Dayne Zorko to a half back flank. That decision, made after Kideon Coleman did his ACL, has made a world of difference to Brisbane as Zorko tackles and works defensively while also possessing the skills to be an architect off half back. He’s the enginge behind that kick-mark game and has probably extended his career in the process.

If Brisbane can keep their scoring profile up, while maintaining their statistical dominance in other areas around the ball, this is a team that can play spoiler to some upstart team that finds themselves in the finals and can’t go with the heavy scoring Lions (Fremantle).

Beware, the medium sized monster has stirred.

 

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