Swans are a dead cert, so who’s number 2?

Swans are a dead cert, so who’s number 2?

If one thing is certain in this AFL season, it is that Sydney is the best team in it.

They cycle through gears, occasionally playing teams close for a quarter or two before deciding to ratchet everything up and blow them away.

They’re like those things in A Quiet Place. They might not get you immediately, but eventually, you’ll make a sound and then you’re dying so Emily Blunt can live.

They did it again against GWS on Saturday afternoon. It was 16-13 at quarter time.

61-21 at half time.

They let GWS back into the game after they had geared down, but this team is in well-oiled machine territory.

To talk about the best team being the best is, however, boring.

Instead let’s talk about the second best.

Actually, a quick aside before we do. If you listen to Gerard Healy, you’ll be left thinking nobody and nothing is good. Who took the jam out of his donut?

Against Fremantle, Gold Coast had an exceptional bit of play with about five minutes in the second quarter to keep themselves alive. Sam Flanders kicked it up the middle out of defence, dropping it in a bucket over a fully extended Hayden Young into Matt Rowell’s waiting arms. Rowell then handballed it onto a sprinting Jake Rogers who hit Sam Day on a lead. He goaled from 50 to make it 37-19.

It was the first time Gold Coast got any sort of momentum out of their back half and one of the only times that they manufactured that kind of corridor access.

Gerard’s take away from a 50m set shot goal was that Day didn’t quite middle it (it was a perfect drop punt).

Cheer up Gerard! You didn’t even have to fly to Perth!

If you asked Gerard who number 2 is he’d tell you that number 2 was better 15 years ago and now all footballers are dumb and soft.

But you didn’t ask Gerard. I asked me, so let’s answer the question.

To me, this is between Carlton and Collingwood.

While you could argue that Brisbane is currently playing better than everyone, maybe even Sydney, they still sit outside the 8 and will need to win almost all their games to make the top 4.

They could very well enter September more tired than Carlton and Collingwood project to, given both sides are sitting inside the top-4 already.

Who is playing the better footy right now? And who is a better chance to beat Sydney?

On paper, it’s clear that Carlton has a better list.

Even if you say that the midfields and defences are relatively even, there is no contest between the forward lines. Carlton’s brew of McKay, Curnow, Owies, Williams and even guys like Elijah Hollands and Alex Cincotta is just better than Collingwood’s list.

Carlton’s best ruckman would be far and away Collingwood’s best forward.

Despite that, over the last five games, Carlton is generating only one more shot and goal than the Pies, while both sides are generating basically the same quality of shot (14th and 15th in the AFL). Both sides have also been extremely efficient when they get inside 50, sitting second and third in the AFL in scores per inside 50, separated by 0.1%.

I should say that the Blues are scoring more, kicking basically a goal and a half a game more than Collingwood.

Even so, what does that tell you?

Collingwood’s system is better.

The Pies are extremely efficient because their system.

They have extra players around contests and have their dashing half-backs waiting to be launched by a constructive handball to then run the ball into an open forward line. Their missile launching game style has been just as effective minute to minute as Carlton’s proclivity to bang it into their gun forwards, even as their scoring from turnover has dried up a bit.

That the Pies have scored as efficiently despite taking just the 15th most marks inside 50 in the AFL over the past five games has been a triumph of playing to personnel.

Collingwood have also played with tempo well. They would have had no trouble with Fletcher in Whiplash as they always play the game at the tempo they decide.

Despite their well-earned reputation as a free-flowing team, their last five games have had the fourth most ruck contests with 104. That is well up on their season number of 94. As their personnel has been limited, Collingwood have constricted their game and are now comfortable being tightly coiled and ready to run when the opportunity presents.

While the Blues have been more fluid in general over the past month, their bread and butter is still scoring from stoppage and turnover where they sit second over the last five games.

You can set your watch to Carlton’s scoring, Collingwood’s has to be more mercurial especially as their scoring from turnover has dried up over the past five weeks.

None of that is to say that Carlton are badly coached. Michael Voss has grown dramatically. You could see it against Geelong on Friday night. He had Tom Stewart in absolute hell all game long, both with the Alex Cincotta tag and the way that they played half a kick either in front of or behind him. They kept him in two minds all night long.

Like McRae, Voss is playing to his personnel. The difference is that Voss’ personnel is awesome and he lets them play while still having enough grinders and being well enough to set up to force turnovers at a dangerous rate.

The Pies are, however, a dramatically better defensive team. They’re the third best team in the AFL by opposition expected score and Carlton is 14th. The Pies give up the third fewest scores per inside 50, Carlton is 12th.

The Blues have clearly decided, and have been right to decide, that they will just blow teams away and they’ve been right sitting fourth in score differential. Collingwood is eighth, but their goal differential is only 0.6.

So what’s the verdict?

I have said that Collingwood’s method is better, their defence is better, and the midfields are relatively even.

I’d still pick Carlton.

Sometimes footy is about who has the biggest dick? Who has the best players? It’s Carlton.

Carlton is the second-best team in it.

And given that only two non-Victorian sides have won the premiership since 2010, maybe Carlton should be favourites (I hope this attempted jinx works).

 

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