Why EVERY team in the eight can’t win the flag.

Why EVERY team in the eight can’t win the flag.

GuyWhoLikesSport

Round 9 was “Top Eight Round” where every team that was in the top eight heading into the week played each other.

After the round we had one change in the eight, with Fremantle falling out and the Pies vaulting back in after beating West Coast, who are, indeed, not back.

Their resurgence was like a virgin’s first time, short-lived.

The participants in the finals series don’t tend to change much after this point in the season, so chances are one the teams that is currently in the eight will win the flag.

While the competition is better this season than it was last, like every year in every sport, nobody’s perfect.

In that spirit, I’ll tell you why every team that’s currently in the top eight unequivocally cannot win the premiership.

Bad luck all! Better luck next season.

1. Sydney – History

I’ve made a huge mistake.

Seriously what a dumb column idea.

Why start with the team that just demolished GWS and a heartbroken Fremantle, has the best scoring differential, the best score from turnover and score from defensive half differential, and the second-best score from stoppage differential.

There’s no reason Sydney can’t win the premiership.

I would have said defence but they’re giving up the fewest goals per inside 50 and the third fewest scoring shots per inside 50 in the last 5 games, which included their win over GWS and their potent attack.

Even with the rain in that game, they’re unassailable defensive numbers.

So I’m stuck with history, Longmire is 1-3 in Grand Finals.

Maybe they’ll lose again? I don’t know.

Also, the defence.

Other than GWS, in that 5 game stretch they’ve played a grieving Fremantle, Hawthorn, Gold Coast and West Coast.

Whatever. Stupid game.

2. Geelong – Need the corridor

This is better.

Geelong have lost two in a row in remarkably similar ways.

That’s not to say that they’re a poor side, it’s just to say that there’s a way to beat them.

Geelong were so good early in the season when they got access to the corridor and were able to get speed on the game.

Over the last two games both Melbourne and Port Adelaide have totally owned the corridor and forced Geelong into slower ball movement, which they couldn’t abide.

The Cats only took 66 marks against Port and were -54 in uncontested ball.

Melbourne didn’t necessarily attack the game the other way, but Port shut down Geelong’s corridor work and cheated hard the other way.

Geelong only got back into the game when they got fast and made Port pay for their cheating like they were a scorned wife in a big-money divorce looking to add a beach house.

If Geelong can’t access the corridor, they’ve proven two weeks in a row that they can’t win.

3. Essendon – No great players

Now, this might seem obvious.

You tend to need great players to win premierships.

Good players win you games, but having great players wins you premierships and Essendon have one great player, Zach Merrett.

They have a few very good ones like Stringer, McKay, Durham (my favourite), Langford etc.

They have a good system, are very well-coached, and for the first time in living memory seem to be hard to play against.

Indeed, over the past 5 games they’re third in metres gained differential and are seventh for opposition metres gained.

Last season they were fifteenth in both metrics.

They’re hoping to be like a great TV show.

Great TV shows tend not to have stars at the centre of them, at least early in their runs, but instead have pieces who are stars in a great infrastructure like Jon Hamm in Mad Men.

AFL football doesn’t work like that.

4. Melbourne – The same reason that they haven’t won for the past 4 years

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expected different results.

Relatedly, Melbourne don’t have any forwards.

They’re below average in scoring this season, like they always are.

This year, they’re not even generating shots or inside 50s (or clearances), sitting below average in those numbers as well.

They’re matched only by Carmy from The Bear in terms of self-sabotage.

Trade for Tom Lynch.

5. GWS Giants – No plan B

When the US invaded Vietnam, they figured the kind of warfare that served them so well in WWII would work in the jungles of Vietnam.

They didn’t research the terrain and were out-thought and outfought by those pesky Viet Cong.

Even as decades went by and they took it upon themselves to improve other countries like Iraq and Afghanistan, the American plan B remained “do plan A better”.

GWS is the same. When GWS have their turnover game meshing with the (agent) orange tsunami, they’re irrepressible.

When a team stops their run, they can’t pivot. The last two weeks have borne that out.

Both Essendon and Sydney have made the games ugly and stopped GWS’ run at the source, as a result both teams massively outgained GWS and dominated the territory battles.

If it’s not a perfectly GWS game with their pinpoint kicking, pressure, run, and turnover, they can’t pivot into a contested game or win on the other team’s terms.

At least their exits from unwinnable situations have been more dignified than Saigon.

6. Port Adelaide – They’re a good stats bad team, team.

There are certain players who love nothing more than putting up big stats on bad teams.

Trae Young in basketball, Kirk Cousins in American football, Harry Sheezel in modern footy (this is unfair I know, but I was struggling for a name).

They have gaudy numbers but no real cut-through in terms of winning.

Port is a bit the same, as a whole club.

They lead the league in shot differential and expected score differential, are currently second in inside 50 differential and third in metres gained differential and clearance differential.

This is a territory team that plays territory football without necessarily sacrificing much in terms of efficiency, sitting top in shots per inside 50 (granted they miss a lot of those shots).

Yet I would be astonished if they win the premiership.

Their win against Geelong is their first substantial win of the season.

Port are the quintessential flat track bullies and tracks aren’t flat in the finals.

7. Carlton – Their defence is held together by Jacob Weitering and toothpicks

I wrote about Carlton last week so I’ll keep this short.

The defence is a problem. Last year this was one of the very best defences in the league, giving up the fewest goals and shots per inside 50.

This season they’re giving up the second most goals per inside 50.

If Jacob Weitering goes down it would only get worse.

He’s like Logan Roy at the end of Succession. If you think it’s bad now, wait until it’s Lewis Young trying to lead the show. It would be even worse.

It would be a tribute band.

8. Collingwood – Old

Collingwood is old.

Their playing list probably watches Bounce on Sunday nights and laughs, they’re that old.

They might even say “spot on, Duck” in a Facebook comment when Wayne Carey says something.

They were the oldest team last year, and they remain the oldest team this year.

Except this year they seem much older.

Steele Sidebottom is done, Jordan De Goey has had his one good season and now seems content to loaf his way to an early-September trip to Bali, Jeremy Howe isn’t the same as he was last year and I could go on.

It’s not that they aren’t trying (except De Goey), and they’re still a smart side with a big heart, but they just aren’t what they were last season.

Their big acquisition of Lachie Schultz was not exactly Richmond adding Tom Lynch.

Collingwood was the worst premier since the 2016 Bulldogs, and I suspect that they’ll have a bit in common with the Bulldogs in a few years’ time.

Nick Daicos will be their Marcus Bontempelli.

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