It’s time to hate Collingwood (again)

It’s time to hate Collingwood (again)

GuyWhoLikesSport

Would you believe a Gone Girl sequel that again stars Ben Affleck as Nick?

It’s five years later, everyone has forgotten what happened with him and Amy,

and he’s finally managed to secure the divorce he so badly wanted without it being a nightmare from a PR standpoint. So now we’re following him around. He’s dating, meeting woman, etc.

After a few dates he meets Ingrid.

Ingrid is smart, accomplished, attractive, about his age and, wouldn’t you know it, her parents wrote a book series about her! “Incredible Ingrid”.

She’s spent her life being antagonised by Incredible Ingrid who consistently outshines normal Ingrid, and it’s turned her into a poorly adjusted narcissist with a homicidal bent and a need for revenge that she’s all too willing to take out on her romantic partners.

Now Nick is back again, framed for the murder of his wife who is so much happier now that she’s dead.

No.

You wouldn’t.

But that’s what has happened to Adelaide when they play Collingwood time and again.

In fact, 5 of Collingwood’s last 6 wins over Adelaide have been by 5 points or less.

They’ve not just made one sequel to Gone Girl. They’re pumping them out like Saw movies.

But that win precipitates a larger point.

Is Collingwood back?

After a 0-3 start, Collingwood are 6-0-1 in their last seven matches.

No opponent has scored more than 85 points against them in that run and only two have gone over 80. And they’ve done it while being severely undermanned.

They’re back.

They’re back partly because of an interesting tactical innovation that really shone through against Adelaide amid Collingwood’s personnel issues, but has been a consistent go-to this season.

Like all good sides, Collingwood is intimately aware of their own strengths and weaknesses.

They know their forward line is a problem.

The way that they have chosen to combat that is to always have extra men at the stoppage and play effectively with 4 forwards who push up the ground to keep the forward line open for midfielders and fast forwards to run into, kicking goals on the burst more than anything else.

They basically want the whole ground to a runway when they have the ball.

Against Adelaide, and without Jamie Elliott and Brodie Mihocek, Collingwood really lent into it.

Their best method of scoring was either in transition or from stoppage inside 50, and their best way to get into transition situations was to have players sit on the periphery of contests and have runners behind waiting to be launched.

As soon as they won a clearance or got a turnover, they were off to the races.

They weaponised their extra numbers at the periphery of the contest, farming the ball out to them who in turn launched runners streaming past.

The inside midfielders were like money launderers, cleaning a dirty ball so it could be used freely.

Nick Daicos had a Marty Byrde game with 14 clearances and 22 contested possessions.

The goal all along, was to get runners into space and forwards in one-on-one situations apart from any defensive help that might come in a more bunched forward line.

We saw it on the match-winning play. The Pies got a turnover on their halfback, had runners ready, Daicos stayed behind Crisp in case he got caught, and was ready when he ultimately got the ball and hit De Goey in a 1 v 1 in a wide-open forward line.

It was vintage Collingwood.

But the Adelaide game isn’t isolated. A lot of the trends that played out against Adelaide have been part of Collingwood’s plan during their rich vein of form.

Last season, Collingwood led the AFL with average of 8.6 goal kickers per game.

Over the last five games, they’re at 9.6 which is good for second in the AFL. The Pies and Sydney are the only two teams over 9 for that period.

They are also fourth in metres gained over the last 5 weeks with over 6,000. Last year they were tenth with 5,900.

Over the same period, the Pies have also been elite at getting the ball inside 50, sitting third, and are fourth for scores per inside 50.

As far as score sources, the Pies are also third for scores from stoppage, fourth for scores from turnover and fifth for scores from defensive half over the last five games.

They are better than they were last season at everything except scoring from the defensive half, as far as score sources. If there’s one that you want to drop off, it’s that number.

This year, this way to play, should be more sustainable.

Their method also exemplifies the strengths of their best players.

Scott Pendlebury is playing midfield but basically lives a handball behind most stoppages and is an architect from there.

Nick Daicos can be anything and yesterday he decided to be a Saudi prince’s Tom Mitchell.

Jordan De Goey is playing like 2019 Dustin Martin in terms of role, though not output, as a mostly forward who attends the odd centre bounce.

Runners like Josh Daicos, John Noble, Jack Crisp are also unleashed with the system that they’re playing.

Even more limited forwards like Reef McInnes have a fighting chance because what they lack in skill, they make up for in the amount of space that they are afforded.

I could go on, but the point is that McRae is coaching a flawed list with the Belichick philosophy: don’t tell me what the guy can’t do.

He’s playing to his list of strengths.

Defensively they have also been exceptional as Darcy Moore has fixed his early season poor form and Billy Frampton has played significantly better since the Carlton game.

Over the last five games, the Pies are third for lowest opponent expected score and have given up the fourth fewest scoring shots per inside 50 while allowing the third-fewest inside 50s.

None of this is to say that Collingwood is perfect.

Any time Collingwood couldn’t get the game into transition, they looked mostly toothless.

Part of that will be fixed when they get Jamie Elliott and Brody Mihocek back, but not all of it. It will still be hard for them to score when they’re not either on the burst or in a stoppage situation.

Despite that, they might be better than they were last year at the most important things.

Shit. I worked it out. Maybe they’re making a Gone Girl 2: Electric Boogaloo for all of us.

 

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