Why this, Anthony Joshua?

Why this, Anthony Joshua?

GuyWhoLikesSport

The answer to that question is obvious: money.

But with that opening sentence, we’ve pulled a Memento and started at the end. So, let’s set the context.

In late October 2023, ex-UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou made his boxing debut against Tyson Fury in Saudi Arabia to open what the Saudis are calling Riyadh Season.

Riyadh Season, as far as I can tell, largely consists of the Saudis opening up the public investment fund to buy boxing and, given their large stake in the PFL (the organization that signed Francis Ngannou after the UFC did not renew him) and the pending UFC Saudi Arabia, combat sports in general.

The fight itself was largely expected to be non-competitive.

Arrested Development narrator: “the fight was extremely competitive.”

In the end, Ngannou gave Fury everything he could possibly handle. Fury, correctly, won the fight but Ngannou won the night.

In another Riyadh Season event in late December 2023 Anthony Joshua fought Otto Wallin, a solid heavyweight who went life and death with Tyson Fury in 2019.

That card had both Deontay Wilder and Joshua on it and the idea was that they would fight each other next, assuming they both won their fights.

Wilder, in the end, went full Logan Roy and didn’t hold up his end of the deal.

Joshua, on the other hand, fought his best fight since he dispatched Alexander Povetkin in 2018.

He was punch perfect. His jab was stiff. His counterpunching was better than it has ever been. But most importantly had a real mean streak back for the first time since Andy Ruiz shook his confidence.

It looked like AJ was back and, for the first time, it seemed to make sense to make AJ vs Fury, assuming Fury beats Usyk in a bout that was originally scheduled for February but now for March, also in Riyadh, for all the heavyweight belts.

But instead. AJ has decided to fight Francis Ngannou for no belts this Saturday.

Note also that AJ made his decision before the Fury v Usyk fight was postponed for May this year after Fury was cut.

There are various theories for how he sustained the cut, but in any case, we’re booked for May and hopefully Fury can’t find a way to wriggle out of it.

When the Fury v Usyk fight happens is also irrelevant to the question of why Joshua picked Ngannou next.

For Joshua to get a shot at the belts it likely needs to be against Fury, given he has already lost to Usyk twice. If Usyk wins, it’s more likely that Usyk will instead fight IBF mandatory challenger Filip Hrgovic instead of beating Joshua a third time.

So, I ask again, why pick Ngannou when you need a win, and your career finally has some momentum again?

Now we return to the start of the piece.

Money.

But is that a good reason? While I appreciate that Ngannou is a big name and a big, if not prestigious fight, the Fury fight didn’t appear to sell. The fact that the PPV numbers weren’t widely publicised and have just been whispered about is usually a good indicator that they were poor.

While AJ will certainly get a sizeable guarantee, his upside will be capped by the fact that Ngannou isn’t a tremendous draw.

Even if Ngannou were a Canelo-level PPV draw, would the money really be better for that fight than a fight for heavyweight supremacy between two charismatic and famous Brits, and possibly two of the three most famous active boxers on earth?

Surely both in terms of guarantee and upside, Fury is a bigger fight. And it’s huge with or without all the belts.

Even if Fury is tied up with Usyk for all of 2024 (with the rematch clauses in the contract), AJ could have kept the momentum going with an easier stay-busy fight with the pot of gold that is Tyson Fury at the end of the rainbow.

Isn’t Ngannou a stay busy fight, I hear you asking?

Isn’t that what Tyson Fury thought?

Ngannou is a tricky customer. He is strong in a way that most boxers aren’t, and he moves in an unorthodox way. Even if you beat Ngannou, you probably won’t look good doing it and you might derail your positive momentum in the process.

It’s a bit like facing Shaun Tait.

While Ngannou isn’t necessarily a good boxer, he is an unorthodox one and he has genuine punching power.

Those are two of AJ’s biggest struggles.

Ever since his loss to Andy Ruiz, perhaps even since his blood and guts win against Wladimir Klitschko, Joshua has shown that he simply does not like to get hit. At this point in his career, he is chinny.

Secondly, he wants to fight behind his jab, keep everything straight, and get out of there clean. He wants his fights to look textbook, and for that to happen, he needs his opponents to be textbook.

Fighting Ngannou will be like playing in a jazz band as a classical musician.

In short, Joshua has overcorrected from a big man who fought like a small man and got hit too much in the process, to a big man who fights too much like a big man and doesn’t want any smoke.

Only in his demolition of the just-solid Otto Wallin did he find a middle ground.

I worry that Ngannou might set him back again. Ngannou’s strange movements mean that the normal rules of boxing are difficult to apply to him and, if he lands one, you very well might go down as Tyson Fury did.

And, if you’re Anthony Joshua, you might find it hard to get up.

I don’t think Joshua will lose. Regardless, this isn’t a smart move.

This is a lose/lose for a fighter coming off his first big win in years.