Opening Round(TM) has been and gone.
It was good to have footy back, even if it was a week too early and I’m also somewhat confused as to how it’s taken advantage of the NRL leaving Australia given they were back in the country this week?
Anyway, it’s hard to take too much away from it because it felt like half the teams that actually played were underdone and didn’t trot out full strength sides.
But I do have two lukewarm takes from the weekend of games.
Firstly, The Blues Brothers came out in 1980, the star of the movie, John Belushi, died in 1982.
How have Blues fans just arrived at wearing hats and ties to games?
It’s a 40-year-old movie their mission from God must have been delayed.
Secondly, Carlton might be better than I thought.
Last year, Carlton was fool’s gold. They were the best stoppage team in the AFL, and they were especially good at scoring from them sitting first in the comp in points from clearance differential.
But dominating in that stat is like trying to make a rom-com in 2019.
Old fashioned, the stuff of the 90s, they couldn’t generate anything in the way of forward half turnovers and couldn’t score from them.
But against Brisbane, that changed, it was their Anyone But You moment.
The Blues were able to meet the modern game in the middle, they broke even in clearances against another of the best midfields in the AFL but scored 8.4 of their 11.6 through three quarters off turnover which gave them a huge edge.
The return (finally) of Zac Williams also had an impact on their cleanness coming out of defence.
They were second in the opening round for rebound 50s after a 2023 season where they were league average.
But more than the numbers, it was the quality. Williams especially had numerous perfect kicks coming out of defence.
My personal favourite was one that was dropped by Matt Owies in the third quarter.
He was deep in defence and under enormous pressure, but was able to rake a kick to Owies on the wing that would have got them out of trouble if Owies had taken a chest mark.
It was like he couldn’t believe the ball got to him that cleanly.
If they can get that part of the game going, while staying good in the clinches and continuing to score off turnover, they might be a tougher out than I expected.
It’s especially true if Harry McKay keeps kicking straight.
I probably need to see it for a month before I crown him Matthew Lloyd’s heir, though.
1. Collingwood v Sydney
Collingwood have led these rankings twice in two weeks with games against the Sydney teams.
I’d watch a Royal Rumble event where just those three clubs go at each other until we crown a champion, but the AFL will never do that because they’re too busy revolutionising the game by starting a week early.
Sydney had a solid win against Melbourne last week, dominating the Dees’ allegedly vaunted midfield without their three key older players in Adams, Mills and Parker.
For Collingwood, the final score didn’t tell the full story.
Even though they lost by 5 goals, they had three more scoring shots and comfortably won the expected score.
Pies fans have been telling us for two years that the game isn’t played by expected score so I’m not sure what to make of that, though.
2. Gold Coast v Adelaide
This is my hipster, game style, pick.
By the way, have you seen The Big Lebowski?
Perfect to watch while sipping almond lattes with an ironic moustache.
Adelaide has the best or forward line in the AFL and are one of the most attractive teams to watch in footy.
They also have one of the worst defences in the league, which effectively guarantees that they’ll be the 2011 New Orleans Saints of this AFL season playing in shootout after shootout.
The Suns can put it on a team as well, with Ben King looking likely to break out.
Footy Classified already can’t wait to trade him to a Melbourne club, did you know his brother plays for the Saints?
Even if Gold Coast’s defence held up against a Lynch-less Richmond, there’s no reason to believe this won’t be a shootout.
3. Melbourne v Bulldogs
These are two of the most intriguing sides in football, from a “how big of a trainwreck could be” standpoint.
Train wrecks are like Sydney Sweeney on SNL. You can’t take your eyes off them.
The Bulldogs and Beveridge seems to be experiencing the seven-year itch nine years in.
The club is taking a stronger hand in football operations and taking power away from Beveridge and Bevo’s veneers indicate to me that a midlife crisis is afoot.
It would not surprise me, if they get off to a slow start, to see Bevo speed off in his newly acquired Mercedes convertible with a girlfriend half his age by Round 8 if things continue down this path.
For Melbourne, the game against Sydney was their Die Hard 2 moment: more of the same, with fewer positives.
They still couldn’t kick a score and went at just 41% efficiency inside 50, well down from their 46% average even last year where they were also abominable.
They should still be a good side this season, but it feels like there are real stakes.
4. Carlton v Richmond
This is really where the games themselves start to fall off.
This is a legacy addition because these games, irrespective of how good the teams are, always feel like an event.
Especially when compared to the premature release that was the Opening Round™.
5. Essendon v Hawthorn
Some years ago, this near the top of the list by virtue of clubs alone. But this season, neither side projects to be especially good.
This game is one that is bereft of A-grade players, Zach Merrett and James Sicily might be the only ones involved.
The only reason the game is this high is that both sides seem likely to play an attractive game and both are young enough for a neutral to take an interest in how they develop.
6. Geelong v St Kilda
These are two teams that seem likely to be around the mark for finals, so why are they this low? Game style.
These two sides project to have two of the least interesting game styles in football this year.
The Saints were stingiest defence in football last season and avoided the corridor like it was a venereal disease, preferring to play along the wings in the hope that nothing bad can happen.
Geelong was pretty middle of the pack in both scoring and defending but have long played a style that doesn’t inspire joy.
Combine that with an ageing list and generally very little mystery and you have this ranking.
7. Fremantle v Brisbane
Fremantle and Brisbane are two of the least interesting teams in football for different reasons.
For Brisbane, the list is so good and their success so metronomic, even despite the loss, that their season doesn’t start until September 1st.
For Fremantle it looks like a start again season.
For a small club in WA, that means apathy all around from most of the footy public.
8. GWS v North Melbourne
There are three reasons that this isn’t last.
Firstly, GWS play kamikaze football and are always fun to watch.
Secondly, it’ll be interesting to see who Alistair Clarkson yells at.
Quick aside: I challenge anyone to spot the lie with what Clarko called Jimmy Webster.
That hit was absurd.
Thirdly, Callum Brown.
9. Port v West Coast
The only reason anyone is watching this game is if you are a club supporter, you are interested in Harley Reid or if you have a Same-game multi on it.
West Coast threaten to be the worst side in recent football memory and Port had a hot middle of the season around general mediocrity.
Call your mother.