We’re officially a month through the NFL Season. Week 5 is here and we’re starting to get a great feel for who is good this season and who should spend a bit more time scouting rookies for next year.
There are heaps of blockbuster match ups this week including Cardinals v Eagles, Ravens v Bengals and Chiefs v Raiders on Tuesday!
There’s plenty to love this week and hopefully we can find a few winners as well.
Here is my preview for Week 5 of the NFL. There’s plenty of action each week on the Neds NFL Punting Podcast too, check that out below!
It’s a Thursday Night Football game that I would’ve been excited for at the start of the season but a month into the action and I’m not very keen on this matchup at all.
The Broncos are yet to live up to the hype and the Colts are severely disappointing everyone this season.
To add insult to Injury, the first overall pick in Fantasy Drafts this year; Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out of this game with an ankle injury. Without him the Colts Offense will struggle to stay on the field and the Broncos will struggle against a Colts defence that has been very strong so far.
I’m taking the unders and I’m checking the score on my phone for this game.
The 3-1 Packers travel to New Jersey to take on the 3-1 Giants. Yes you read that correctly, the Giants are 3-1.
This will be a big test for NY. Yes they have won 75% of their games this year but this is their hardest match up so far. Not to mention, anyone not names Saquon Barkley isn’t jumping out on the stat sheet so far this season.
It’s easier said than done but if the Packers take Saquon out of the equation, it is an easy win here and I believe they have the weaponry to do that.
This was my “Sneaky Good Game” on the Neds NFL Punting Podcast this week. (Shameless plug, go and listen to the poddy on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.)
Dolphins’ QB Tua Tagovailoa has already been ruled out of this one after the sickening head knock he copped against the Bengals. Teddy Bridgewater will be under centre for Miami this week and is one of the better back ups in the league.
The Jets however are the team I’m looking at in this one. Zach Wilson is back, they have some incredible pass catchers in NY and Breece Hall looks to be on the cusp of breaking out.
It wouldn’t be a huge upset but I’m tipping the Jets to win here and to have a positive record in the first 5 weeks! Unheard of!
Another sneaky good one here I reckon.
The Seahawks are coming off a game with the Detroit Lions where the was nearly 100 points scored!
They take on the 1-3 Saints who have look ~okay~ but haven’t really had much luck this year. They were without Can’t Guard Mike, Alvin Kamara and Jameis Winston last week against the Vikings.
Jameis hasn’t trained yet this week, Kamara might be on a snap count if he plays (he was limited at training) and I have no idea what Michael Thomas is doing (He didn’t train at all).
The Seahawks on the other hand got it going last week and if there are that many question marks over there opposition. I’m rolling with Seattle. At Home too!
Tom Brady is going to be playing angry in this one.
He’s got a lot going on outside of football and he hasn’t lost three games in a row in 20 years.
I’m personally getting on him to throw 500+ Yards and 5 TDs. Tom is angry and he is free,
The Falcons are in trouble here.
Detroit are good to watch this year and they’re even better for an Overs market.
They are the #1 in Points Per Game so far this year (35 PPG) and are also #32 on Points Allowed this year (35.25 PPG)
I’m taking the overs in this one very comfortably. The Lions have the potential to score 45 themselves and they are currently turnstiles on defence.
I’m expecting a huge score in this one.
Kenny Pickett’s first official NFL start will be a tough one. He will play the current Super Bowl favourites the Buffalo Bills (They’re currently $5 to be Super Bowl Champions btw)
The Steelers are massive under dogs here $6.40 to be exact and the Bills are $1.12 to win.
I’m looking forward to this one mainly to see how Pickett goes, he hasn’t thrown an incompletion yet. His passes have all been caught (Just not all by the right team)
14 points is a huge handicap but if anyone can cover, it’s the Bills. This one could blow out quickly.
The Jaguars struggled in the wet last week against the Eagles but should bounce back in this one. Despite his 4 fumbles last week Trevor Lawrence has improved week on week.
The Texans however have looked like hot garbage consistently. They’re run defence has been abysmal and I’m going to be taking overs on rush yards for James Robertson and Travis Ettiene in this game.
Jags to cover lead by the two headed monster that is their backfield. Could be a few TDs for the Jacksonville RBs.
Another opportunity for the Vikings to tighten things up. They take on the Bears who have no idea what they what to do this season.
There is nothing to get excited about with the Bears this year, they are a walking practice squad and I’m tipping the Vikings to TORCH them.
Dalvin Cook could go off in this one, Saquon had 146 Yards against the Bears last week. Jefferson should have himself a day out too. Lots of player markets I like in this one.
Quite possibly the game I care about the least this week.
I don’t know what there is to say in this one. Wentz has crashed back down to earth, Tannehill could only muster 137 Pass yards last week and will be without rookie wideout Treylon Burks in this one.
I’m liking the unders in this one, I just think it’s going to be a stinker. Take the unders and don’t set your alarm for this 3am game.
This game is one I’m looking forward too. The Chargers at $21 is someone I’m very interested in to win the Super Bowl and they are taking on a 2-2 Browns team that have stuck with a lot of sides so far this year.
My leg in the “3 and Out Multi” on this weeks NFL Punting Podcast (another shameless plug) is the Chargers to cover so it makes sense to tip it here too. The line is 2.5 and I think that is waaaaaay too easy for LA to cover.
I like it a lot.
Baker is really letting me down this year. I’ve been a huge Baker Believer since day 1 but it’s getting harder and harder to go out to bat for him. DJ Moore had 11 Targets last week but could only muster 6 catches for 50 yards.
It’s just not working in Carolina and there is every chance Baker gets benched once Darnold is healthy again.
The 49ers defence has been so impressive this year and I think they are going to pound on Baker this week. It’s not going to be a pretty sight.
I like the 49ers to cover and could be very interested in a 49ers Defence anytime TD bet. Massive Pick 6 potential in this one.
Another game on a decent time slot for us Aussies that I am not very excited about.
Everyone not named Cooper Kupp on the Rams last week struggled and I can’t get a proper read on Dallas this year. Is Rush good? Who’s the RB1? These are the questions I keep coming back to week after week.
The Rams are still the Rams, they’re the reigning champs and are huge favourites in this one. I’m just… not keen on them. They SHOULD absolutely blow the Cowboys out but they have just looked so clunky this year.
I’m tipping a close one in this matchup.
Battle of the Birds! This game is going to be one of the best of the week.
Kyler vs Jalen is a matchup I am very much looking forward too. They are two teams who have scored a lot of points but also let in a heap this year.
I’m taking overs on the points line in this one. Sitting back with a coffee on Monday morning and expecting fireworks.
I hope this game lives up to the hype.
Finally some prime time games I can get around!
This is a huge AFC North showdown. Lamar v Burrow what is not to love?!
While the Bengals at home are the underdogs I am leaning towards them because of the improvements to their offensive line in recent weeks. Burrow has been sacked 3 times in 2 weeks and the Ravens are averaging 2 sacks a game on the year so far.
Burrow should have heaps of time on his feet and we’ve seen that when he does, he can really embarrass teams. $2.40 is value for a Bengals W.
Mahomes and The Chiefs decimated the Buccaneers last week.
They were my number 1 ranked defence and Mahomes dropped 41 on them like they were a high school team. Another week into the season, Mahomes will be more comfortable with his new weapons against a side that in under performing. I think this could be a very brutal win for KC.
I like the Chiefs 14+ and if I was feeling savage I’d multi that up with over 51 points for $4.69.
I’m expecting big things from KC in this one