With hopes anew and the slate wiped clean, we look ahead to Week 1 of the NFL season on Friday with the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams kicking things off at home against the Buffalo Bills.
The 16-game slate is headlined by several key divisional showdowns on Monday (AEDT), including the Steelers taking on last year’s runner-ups, the Cincinnati Bengals, and a telltale battle between the Packers and Vikings from the Dome in Minnesota.
The primetime slot features a potential NFC Championship Game preview between Tom Brady and the Bucs and Dak Prescott’s Cowboys, followed by a statement game for Russell Wilson on Tuesday against his old team, the Seattle Seahawks.
Upsets are almost a guarantee in Week 1, and we’ve got you covered with our best bets for every game below!
We kickoff where we left off last season with the Rams back home at SoFi hoping to defend their crown against the current Super Bowl favourites.
Late-season additions helped Sean McVay’s side earn its first Lombardi Trophy since moving to Los Angeles, but the champs have lost a few key pieces in transition – namely Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr.
Led by Josh Allen and a defence that allowed the fewest passing yards all season, the Bills have been a trendy pick to finally win their first ring after falling agonizingly short in the AFC Championship Game to the Chiefs last year.
Buffalo is arguably one of the most talented teams on both sides of the ball, but this is still an enormous early test against a Rams pass rush that still features three-time DPOY, Aaron Donald.
The Bills will likely look to the aerial route in this game, and although the Rams’ secondary isn’t what it was last year, there’s still enormous depth on the roster.
Allen can test LA with his legs, but this game will largely be won and lost in the red zone – an area where both sides ranked bottom five in touchdowns allowed last year.
The “Super Bowl Hangover” narrative will be fascinating to watch as the season wears on, but if the Rams can protect Matt Stafford and handle the blitz – something they did exceptionally well last year – and also keep the Bills to under 25 points, they look a good bet to cover.
Expectations are low for the Falcons heading into the season, but there’s every chance this turns into a feisty game against the division rival Saints.
New Orleans fell agonisingly short of a playoff berth last year despite beating this same Falcons team in a 22-20 thriller in the final week of the season.
In terms of turnover, the Saints have retained much of the same roster that they had last year, while they’ve also gained the services of Dennis Allen as their permanent coach, and the return of superstar wide receiver, Michael Thomas.
Defensively, the Saints are one of the toughest teams in the league to run the ball against, which does make this a tricky matchup for a Falcons team that has limited offensive options outside of Kyle Pitts and Damien Williams.
To make matters worse, the Falcons don’t really have much of a pass rush, leaving Jameis Winston plenty of time to air it out downfield.
It won’t be surprising if the Falcons hang around early in this game, but a sneaky backdoor cover from the Saints is the likely outcome.
The first of two revenge games kicks off nice and early on Monday with Baker Mayfield taking on his former team, the Cleveland Browns.
It’s been a tumultuous offseason for fans in the Dawg Pound with Mayfield ousted in favour of Deshaun Watson, the latter suspended for the first 11 games.
The Browns are in safe enough hands with Jacoby Brissett starting under centre though, and we’ll likely see a healthy share of last year’s second-leading rusher, Nick Chubb, running the football.
The ground game should also be a focal point for the Panthers with superstar Christian McCaffrey back in the fold.
The Panthers have missed their star rusher for the better part of the last two seasons, and there’s no doubt a healthy No. 22 would help take the pressure off Mayfield.
The offensive line is a concern for both teams this year, making betting on this game even more difficult.
The ‘Mayfield Revenge’ narrative is enticing, but if the Browns get 200-ish yards out of Brisett and the pass rush lives up to its end of the bargain, Cleveland might just sneak an important win on the road.
A new era is set to get underway in San Francisco on Monday with Trey Lance taking over quarterback duties in place of Jimmy Garoppolo.
Kyle Shanahan’s decision has parted fans down the middle, but it could turn out to be a stroke of genius if the Niners can suddenly start scoring points – an area that plagued them at times last year.
The Bears enter the season firmly in rebuild mode with Matt Eberflus the new head coach and Justin Fields set for his first full season under centre.
Chicago is still a long way away from competing, and this looks to be another tough year with wide receiver Allen Robinson departing for Los Angeles.
Growing pains are to be expected from Lance in his second season, but the defence should do enough to carry the 49ers here.
Nick Bosa is an early favourite for DPOY honours, while it’s worth remembering this is the same unit that held the Packers to 10 points in a Divisional Championship Game at Lambeau.
All eyes will be on the Bengals in Week 1 as they hope to avoid the dreaded Super Bowl hangover that has cost so many teams in the past.
Last season’s runner-ups have added to their offensive line during the offseason, while Joe Burrow is also in good health following an appendectomy.
The Steelers, meanwhile, are much more of a mystery.
Coach Mike Tomlin has named Mitch Trubisky as the starter, disappointing the thousands of fans calling for rookie Kenny Pickett to lead-off the season.
Cincinnati’s receiving core of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd might be the best in the league, not that Pittsburgh fans need any reminding.
The Steelers lost by double-digits in both meetings last year, while the Bengals also covered in six of their seven games against division opponents.
Pittsburgh might see some success running the ball, but with so much uncertainty at quarterback, the Bengals are clearly the much better team on paper.
The Eagles and Lions have both been popular ‘smoky’ picks in their respective divisions this year.
Philly’s revamped pass rush is a welcome change for fans, while the addition of big bodied wide receiver A.J. Brown gives second-year starting quarterback Jalen Hurts a true No. 1 option in the passing game.
The Lions have also received plenty of love, largely due to their appearance on Hard Knocks.
Early first round pick Aidan Hutchinson should be a one-man wrecking ball on the edge this year, while there’s also been a lot to like about the general energy at Ford Field during the preseason.
The Eagles were a profitable team to bet on in away games last year posting a 6-4 mark overall, but the Lions were also one of the best teams to back as an underdog at the line.
I’d feel a little better about backing Detroit with more insurance, and I do think the Eagles can pick apart their average secondary if Hurts gets time in the pocket.
The Lions’ offensive line has also shown issues throughout the preseason, not to mention some of the little mistakes they tend to make that cost them plenty of games last year.
This game could be a shootout early, but I think the Eagles can land the killer blow late.
We’re all set for another quarterback change in Indianapolis with former MVP Matt Ryan taking over under centre.
Like a few others, the Colts have also been a popular ‘roughie’ in futures betting heading into the season, largely due to a roster that features an emerging star in Michael Pittman, a defence that made a reputation for stopping the run last year, and of course, MVP runner-up, Jonathan Taylor.
Meanwhile, in Houston, it’s another transition year for the Texans as they begin the season with Davis Mills at quarterback following Deshaun Watson’s departure.
Talent is thin on the depth chart, but rookie running back Dameon Pierce does stand out as a name to watch.
Defensively, the Texans are still one of the worst teams in the league though, and I suspect they’ll rank top five again in yards and touchdowns when this season is all said and done.
With a new identity and some fresh new talent on the roster, this feels like a statement game in the making for the Colts.
This is one of the more intriguing games on the early slate with the Patriots opening their season in Miami as +3.5 underdogs.
It’s been a big offseason in New England with former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels departing for Vegas, but there are plenty of positives worth focusing on after the Patriots went out and acquired for Dolphins receiver Devante Parker.
Speaking of the passing game, the Dolphins should be plenty of fun to watch this season if Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill find themselves on the same page nice and early.
Like their rivals, it’s been a long offseason for Miami marred by off-field controversy, but there is reason for optimism if Tua can stay healthy and the defence takes another step forward.
These two sides have met in Week 1 in each of the last two seasons, and while there are probably more unknowns about the Dolphins, it almost feels like the bookies might know something we don’t.
So long as the Dolphins’ offensive line protects Tua, I’m happy to side with Miami at home.
Outside of Joe Flacco taking on his former team, there aren’t many reasons to get excited for this game.
The Jets have started the season on the back-foot with Zach Wilson suffering a knee injury during preseason, leaving the home side seriously short-handed against a Ravens side playing with a point to prove.
After falling to 8-9 and missing the playoffs last year, the Ravens find themselves chasing down the Bengals in the AFC North in what is also a contract year for quarterback Lamar Jackson.
On offence, Jackson has lost one of his key weapons in wide receiver Marquise Brown, but there are plenty of reasons to believe Baltimore can be a force in the AFC again if running back J.K. Dobbins stays healthy.
It was only two season’s ago that we saw Jackson run riot on the Dolphins in Week 1, and although much of their chances depend on his arm and legs, it’s hard to see the Ravens losing this game.
It mightn’t be the most exciting game of Week 1, but there’s every chance this one turns into an early thriller.
The Jaguars will be looking to forget all about their brief and tumultuous relationship with Urban Meyer when they kick off the season under new head coach, Doug Pederson.
Philly’s former Super Bowl winning coach inherits a roster oozing with young talent, starting at the top with 2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence, and one of the best young running back tandems in Travis Etienne and James Robinson.
The Commanders are also turning over a fresh leaf with their own former Eagle, Carson Wentz at quarterback.
After a failed stint with the Colts, no one is expecting miracles from the veteran, but Wentz does at least bring some stability to the position and a slight upgrade on Taylor Heinecke and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Nothing much is expected from either side this season, but I still think the Commanders are a sneaky chance at winning seven or so games – especially if Wentz can help rectify some of their red zone troubles last year.
All in all, we know what we’re getting with Wentz – interceptions and some odd decisions – but he should be able to push the ball downfield and make some magic with Terry McLaurin.
It’s only fitting that these two sides should meet given how important their respective running back’s might be to their season.
Giants fans will be hoping the Saquon Barkley of old returns this year after showing obvious signs of slowness last season following a torn ACL, while Tennessee is also hoping Derrick Henry can shrug off some rust and play the full 17 games.
Betting-wise, this is a tough game to feel for given both offences were stagnant at times last year.
Given their financial situation, the Giants are basically handcuffed to Daniel Jones for at least one more season, and the options surrounding him at wide receiver don’t inspire much confidence.
Likewise, the Titans will likely run Henry into the ground – which could produce mixed results given the state of their offensive line.
With that said, if I had to bet on this game, the Under would be my play.
The bookies are expecting a high-scoring shootout from the desert on Monday with the Over/Under Points Total set at 53.5 between the Chiefs and Cardinals.
Kansas City kicks off the year with a fresh new look, mainly at wide receiver with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Juju Smitch-Schuster hoping to fill the void left by one of Patrick Mahomes’ favourite targets, Tyreek Hill.
The Cardinals have also seen some change at receiver with DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first six weeks of the season.
Arizona got busy during the break acquiring Marquise Brown, one of Kyler Murray’s former teammates at Oklahoma.
In recent times, beating the Chiefs has been almost impossible during the few weeks of the season, but we should expect some growing pains with a few key pieces adjusting to a new scheme.
Even so, we saw last year that the Cardinals are hardly the same team without Hopkins, and you do have to wonder when, not if, the old turnover problems that plagued Murray will begin to rear their ugly head.
We kickoff the season with one of last year’s most exciting match ups.
The Chargers were denied a playoff spot in the final week of the regular season against the Raiders, but it’s fair to say a lot has changed since then.
Los Angeles has turned over much of the same roster with the inclusion of Khalil Mack to the pass rush, while the Raiders spent up big on the league’s No. 1 receiver, Davante Adams.
The AFC West is almost in a league of its own, and although it’s only early, this is the kind of game that could wind up determining the division down the track.
For a bet, I think the Chargers are the rightful favourites, especially with the Raiders kicking off a new era under former Patriots offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels.
Vegas is stacked with talent, but they’ll need the offensive line to perform out of its skin if they stand any chance of matching Los Angeles on the scoreboard.
The Chargers averaged just shy of 28 points a game last season, scary considering Justin Herbert still has improvement to come.
With LA’s pass rush revamped and the running back room healthy, this looks like a great revenge spot for the home side.
The Packers have dominated the NFC North in recent years, but there is a sense of uncertainty about the defending champs to begin the season.
Last year’s MVP Aaron Rodgers has lost his favourite target in Davante Adams, and outside of adding a couple of receivers with serious potential in the draft, the Packers haven’t done much to address the position.
On the flip side, the Vikings possess one of the most talented receiving duos in the league.
Justin Jefferson again rates as a top five wide receiver this year, while veteran Adam Thielen and tight end Irv Smith all leave Kirk Cousins with a range of options.
The Packers will rely heavily on their ground game this year, which makes perfect sense given the talent of Aaron Jones and the returning A.J. Dillon.
Defensively, the Vikings had enormous issues with their pass rush last year, while they also ranked seventh in rushing yards allowed.
Jones and Dillon could both be in for a big day, but Green Bay’s defence probably holds the key to this game.
The Packers’ secondary was one of the best in the league last year when it came to securing takeaways, and a lot of that came without star cornerback, Jaire Alexander.
These two sides put on a high-scoring shootout when they met in the Dome last season, but against a Green Bay defence that is projected to be Top 5 in the league again, the Vikings might find points hard to come by.
There are storylines aplenty heading into the second primetime game of the week, starting of course, with Tom Brady.
The GOAT’s off-field marriage issues have dominated the headlines in recent weeks, leaving many to wonder where Brady’s head might be at to start the season.
On the field though, the Bucs have only gotten stronger, adding former Falcons wideout Julio Jones to an already stacked receiver room that features Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, will be hoping to improve on last year’s 12-5 mark.
Most expect the Dallas defence to regress after leading the league in turnovers, but there’s still enormous talent on the offensive side of the ball with Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, and one of the game’s most exciting receivers, CeeDee Lamb, leading the way.
This is a tough game to try and pick, but I’m leaning the way of the Cowboys following Beady’s disrupted season.
I also think Tampa Bay’s offensive line has huge question marks following a preseason dominated by injuries, which does spell potential trouble against DPOY candidate Micah Parsons, and the always dangerous, DeMarcus Lawrence.
The stage is set for a memorable Tuesday in Seattle with former Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson returning in a Broncos jersey.
The Seahawks are expected to miss the playoffs this year after losing their star signal-caller, but there’s no doubting the 12th man will be up and about for this game with Wilson back in town.
Outside of No. 3, the Broncos will be hoping Jerry Jeudy can take another step forward out wide, while Albert Okwuegbunam looks a sneaky chance at being one of the more productive tight end’s this season.
With Geno Smith at quarterback, the Seahawks will likely spend a healthy amount of time running the ball this season.
Rashaad Penny and third-stringer Travis Homer make up some serious muscle at running back, but they’ll likely have their work cut out against a Denver defence that allowed the 12th fewest rushing yards last season.