Another crucial week of NFL action rolls around on Friday as we continue the march towards the playoffs.
It’s becoming more and more difficult to feel confident in the favourites each week, especially with the likes of the Ravens, Bucs, and Rams all coming off upset defeats.
A couple of key division games are on the Week 11 schedule, starting with the Vikings hosting the Packers on Monday, followed by the Seahawks and Cardinals in action from Seattle.
The Cowboys are also hoping to strengthen their Super Bowl claims when they visit the Chiefs at Arrowhead, right before the Steelers and Chargers kick off in the primetime slot.
Nothing is a given at this point in the season, so let us do the hard work for you in our NFL Week 11 Preview below.
Forget the AFC East, the NFL could be turned on its head if the Patriots pull off a fifth-straight win over the Falcons this week.
Now at 6-4, New England finds itself back in the thick of the playoff race following last week’s 45-7 win over the Browns, while the Falcons are looking to bounce-back from a similar blowout at the hands of the Cowboys.
The Patriots’ offence is really starting to click now, evident in the fact they’re averaging close to 28 points-per-game.
Atlanta, meanwhile, has allowed the second-most points in the league defensively, making this a worrying matchup for Arthur Smith’s side.
Thursday Night Football underdogs have proven very profitable this season, but I really can’t see the Falcons keeping up on the scoreboard if Cordarrelle Patterson and Hayden Hurst join Calvin Ridley on the sideline.
New England’s defence has held its last two opponents to less than eight points, so with the Falcons potentially missing more key weapons on offence, I’m happy to back the Patriots to cover.
No surprise to find even money on offer here.
The Saints have slipped to 6-4 with Trevor Siemian under centre, while the Eagles continue to flirt with a .500 record following last week’s big win over the Broncos in Denver.
The injury list only complicates matters with the Eagles potentially missing Miles Sanders and Dallas Goedert, while the Saints are also waiting on word surrounding Alvin Kamara’s knee.
If Kamara misses this game, I fully expect the Eagles to start firm favourites, but even if he does play, I still feel confident in Philly.
The Eagles’ defence has been quietly sturdy this season, particularly against the pass, allowing just over 230 yards a game.
Siemian put up some decent numbers last week in the loss to Tennessee, but I think Philly’s secondary is a much tougher challenge.
The Eagles are also 7-1 in their last eight games as the home favourite, so if the current $1.80 price sticks, I’m happy to load up.
The Dolphins and Jets are playing for nothing more than bragging rights at this point in the season, but a win could prove crucial as far as next year’s Draft is concerned.
Miami made it back-to-back wins last week with an upset over the Ravens, a game that saw the defence hold Lamar Jackson and company to just over 300 yards on the day.
The Jets, on the other hand, are looking to snap a two-game skid following back-to-back losses to the Colts and Bills.
New York’s quarterback situation is confusing to say the least, while Miami’s decision to bring Tua Tagovailoa onto the field at crucial stages last week was just as perplexing.
For that reason, I think the Under is probably the safest play here.
Both teams are averaging just over 17 points a game this season, and it’s also worth noting that five of their last six meetings have gone Under the Total.
Depending on how you look at it, this game could be very entertaining or a comedy of errors. Based on everything we’ve seen so far; I’m leaning towards the latter.
Washington and Carolina get together on Monday and the timing couldn’t be any more perfect.
A huge defensive performance saw WFT pull off one of the upsets of the season over the Bucs last week, a result that has left Ron Rivera’s side with some hope as far as the NFC Wild Card picture is concerned.
Likewise, the Panthers kept their own playoff hopes alive with a massive upset over the Cardinals.
Cam Newton scored two touchdowns in his return to Carolina, and it looks as though we’ll see plenty more of No. 1 this week with Sam Darnold still on injured reserve.
This is one of the toughest games to get a feel for, largely due to how inconsistent both teams have been.
Washington hasn’t won back-to-back games at all this year, while the Panthers have managed only two wins from their last five games.
That said, I still think Carolina gets the job done… just.
Chase Young’s season-ending knee injury is a massive blow for the Washington defence, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time with a run-savvy quarterback like Newton lining up opposite this week.
Speaking of defence, the Panthers remain the toughest team to throw the ball against, allowing an average of 173 yards-per-game.
Considering Taylor Heinecke struggled in the red zone last week against the Bucs – not to mention the five sacks he took – it’s likely Carolina’s defence does the talking here.
Frank Reich and Sean McDermott should both be sensing the importance of a win this week.
The Colts have improved to 5-5 with back-to-back wins over the Jets and Jaguars, but this is obviously a big step up in class against of the AFC’s top Super Bowl contenders.
Buffalo, meanwhile, got back to business last week with a blowout win over the Jets, but the Bills still have a point to prove after losing to Jacksonville two weeks ago in one of the upsets of the season.
The Bills held on for a narrow 27-24 win over the Colts when they met in last year’s Wild Card game, but I think this one might be a little more one-sided in favour of Buffalo.
While Carson Wentz has shown improvement, it’s hard to ignore the fact Indianapolis hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record at all this season.
Buffalo’s defence has been one of the toughest teams to throw the ball against this year, while the running game also looks dangerous now that Matt Breida has returned.
The home team is 5-1 in this matchup over the last six meetings, so I’ve got the Bills covering.
The Lions have managed to avoid another dreaded 0-16 season after drawing with the Steelers last week, a performance Dan Campbell will be hoping his side can build on against the injury-ravaged Browns.
Cleveland lost in blowout fashion last week to the Patriots, and it’s becoming extremely difficult to feel confident in their chances week-to-week with Baker Mayfield still injured.
As it stands, Baker is 50/50 to play with a shoulder injury, while Jarvis Landy and Nick Chubb are also questionable.
Jared Goff, meanwhile, is likely to play through an oblique injury, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Lions spend a good chunk of time running the ball given their success on the ground against Pittsburgh.
The +11 about Detroit is appealing, especially if Mayfield misses this game.
That said, the Lions have failed to score more than 19 points since Week 1, so I think the Under on Detroit is the safest play.
A rare meeting between the 49ers and Jags is scheduled for Week 11, and it looks to be a very favourable matchup as far as San Francisco is concerned.
Kyle Shanahan’s team pulled off one of the upsets of the season last week over the Rams, and they’ll now have their sights set on a Jacksonville team that came crashing back to earth last week with a six-point loss to the Colts.
San Francisco has won each of its three meetings against Jacksonville and I think the Niners can add to that record based on how awful the Jags have looked through the air.
As expected, rookie Trevor Lawrence has struggled to convert opportunities into points this season, while turnovers have also proven a big problem.
The Niners are allowing just over 200 passing yards a game, not to mention the fact the offence has scored 30 points or more in two of its last three outings.
Betting-wise, I think the 49ers win this game, but there is a case to be made for the Jags at the line.
Playing in the Jacksonville heat this time of year can be a challenge, just ask the Bills.
If the Jags can run the ball efficiently and also avoid turning the ball over, they might make this a contest.
The Titans have taken a commanding lead in the AFC South, and they should be able to move one step closer to wrapping up the division against the struggling Texans.
Tennessee made it six in a row last week with a narrow two-point win over the Saints, while the Texans are returning from the bye hoping to snap an eight-game skid.
The Titans have owned Houston’s number recently, but it’s worth noting the last two meetings have turned out rather close.
The Titans required overtime in their first meeting last year, while they managed to win by only a field goal back in January.
That said, a lot has changed in Houston since then, and I can’t back the Texans with any confidence after Tyrod Taylor threw three picks against the Dolphins.
With Tennessee’s offence looking to get back on track after a close call against the Saints, this one might get out of hand in a hurry.
The 8-2 Packers will be hoping to sew up the division this week with a win over the Vikings on the road.
It wasn’t pretty, but Green Bay managed to bounce-back with a win over the Seahawks at Lambeau last week in Aaron Rodgers’ return from COVID.
The offence was dealt a loss with Aaron Jones suffering a knee injury, but backup A.J. Dillon filled in nicely with a pair of touchdowns to compliment another huge day from the defence.
Minnesota, meanwhile, grinded out a gutsy win over the Chargers to improve to 4-5.
The Vikings have been ahead in every game they’ve played this season, and if it wasn’t for a few costly mistakes or last-minute field goals, there mightn’t be as much separating these two sides in the standings.
Green Bay has won three of its last four meetings against Minnesota, but I think the Vikings are a serious threat to bring the Packers’ defence back down to earth.
Dalvin Cook has given Green Bay problems in the past, while the Vikes are also getting a big boost on defence with Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith a chance at returning.
This game will likely boil down to a couple of key possessions, but with home-field advantage and Kirk Cousins playing extremely well, I think the Vikings are a good bet to cover.
The Ravens have had an extra few days to reflect on what went wrong against the Dolphins last week.
Miami’s defence stopped Lamar Jackson in his tracks, but fortunately for Baltimore, no one else in the AFC North managed to pick up a win.
The bookies are favouring the Ravens to bounce-back in a big way against Chicago, but I don’t think anything is going to come easy against a Bears team that is basically playing for its season.
Matt Nagy’s side has lost four straight coming in, but there was a bit to like about their loss to Pittsburgh a fortnight ago on a walk-off field goal.
Chicago’s defence is definitely much better than Miami’s, and we’ve already seen the Bears’ elite pass rush make life difficult for run-savvy teams this year.
Unfortunately, the Bears have gone 0-6 against the spread in their last six games following a bye, so don’t be surprised if Baltimore sneaks in and covers.
This mightn’t be the standout game on the schedule, but it’s hands down the most important.
The Bengals and Raiders both head to Vegas at 5-4, meaning a win for either team could vault them back into one of the three AFC Wild Card slots.
Cincinnati is the slight favourite in betting despite losing back-to-back games prior to last week’s bye.
The Bengals defence has given up 72 points in its last two outings, but they might find this matchup a little easier given the Raiders rank 26th in the league in points-per-game.
Likewise, Vegas is also coming off an ugly loss to Kansas City that basically boiled down to Derek Carr struggling to find targets through the air.
The loss of Henry Ruggs has really hampered Vegas’ passing game, and I don’t think that bodes well against a Bengals offence that is built for shootouts.
Cincy has gone 5-1 against the spread following a double-digit loss at home, so with a little rest on their side, I’m with the Bengals.
It’s almost D-Day for the Seahawks as they square off against the division-leading Cardinals this week.
Seattle has sunk to 3-6 on the season following last week’s shutout loss to the Packers – the first scoreless game the Seahawks have posted during the Russell Wilson era.
It was painfully clear last week that their star quarterback was less than 100 percent, but on the plus side, the Seahawks mightn’t have to deal with Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins this week.
Arizona’s top two players are still listed as questionable on the injury report, and as we saw in the Cardinals’ loss to the Panthers last week, their absence is significant.
Of course, there is a chance Murray plays through his ankle injury, which more than swings this matchup in Arizona’s favour.
Seattle’s defence struggled mightily against the run last week, and to make matters worse, the Cardinals have also posted a perfect 5-0 record straight-up, and against the spread, on the road this year.
The Cowboys find themselves as road underdogs this week at Arrowhead, a price that certainly stands out in the market.
Dallas was almost faultless last week in the win over Atlanta, and when you consider this is basically the league’s best offence taking on one of the league’s worst defences, it’s hard to ignore the price on offer.
To be fair, the Chiefs have found some form of late, but it’s hard to read too much into a cheap win over the Giants, a victory over the Rodgers-less Packers, and a big win over a Raiders team that has plenty going on away from the field.
Home field advantage should help Kansas City’s cause, but I really think Dak Prescott is going to put on a show this week.
The Chiefs’ secondary has looked completely lost at times this year, and there’s arguably no better passing side in the league right now than Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys.
With Ezekiel Elliott also enjoying a career year, the current $2.15 quote about Dallas is a steal.
This shapes as a bit of a tell-all primetime game between the Steelers and Chargers from SoFi.
Pittsburgh basically had every opportunity to put a feisty Lions side to bed last week, but instead settled for a 16-16 tie in overtime.
Likewise, the Chargers were their own worst enemy in a narrow loss to the Vikings, one that has cast plenty of uncertainty around their playoff credentials.
This isn’t a game I’m particularly keen to bet on, especially with Justin Herbert plummeting back down to earth following an MVP-like start to the season.
That said, Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t fill me with confidence either, leaving me looking towards the running game as the deciding factor.
Both sides are averaging around 100 yards-per-game on the ground, while both have also been awful when it comes to stopping the run defensively.
Therefore, instead of backing a winner, I think there’s a worthwhile Same Game Multi to be had on Austin Ekeler and Najee Harris both to score.
Hardly the most exciting Monday Night Football matchup, but there are a few key storylines worth following.
First and foremost, the Bucs are coming off a stunning loss to Washington last week, marking the first time they’ve lost back-to-back games since Week’s 11 and 12 last season.
Second, it’s Tom Brady vs the Giants, a rivalry that is choc-full of history.
Unfortunately, the fun kind of stops there though, as the Giants only look a chance at causing an upset if Daniel Jones somehow plays the game of his life.
Backing Brady to bounce-back has been a very profitable play right throughout his career, and I think he’s almost a certainty to add to that record if Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown play this week.
Even if the pair do miss another game, however, I still think the Bucs have enough to get the job done.
New York’s pass defence is giving u close to 250 yards per game, which could be an issue after Mike Evans saw only three targets last week.