NFL Week 6 Tips & Preview

NFL Week 6 Tips & Preview

The NFL season continues to roll on with a massive Week 6 on the cards.

Naturally the level of concern about the ability to finish the season grows week in and week out but the league office seems determined to plough through as best as they can.

There’s still 14 games scheduled at the moment for this weekend but the chopping and changing has claimed Thursday Night Football this week meaning the first games are not until very early Monday morning.

Read on for our tips here.

Pittsburgh Steelers v Cleveland Browns
Steelers by 1-13 @ $2.40

It turns out there isn’t a market on my first tip for this game but if there was, I’d happily back Myles Garrett to lose his mind and try to beat a Steelers player with their own helmet again.

Some rivalries in the NFL have become a bit sterile but after last November’s battle in Cleveland there might be a few scores looking to be settled here.

On top of that, this has all the makings of a back and forth divisional battle between two teams that have been very impressive so far.

The slight edge for this one has to go to the Steelers and the experience at quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, I’ll back them to win by 1-13.

Indianapolis Colts v Cincinnati Bengals
Under 46.5 Points @ $1.91

*This game may not go ahead after the late breaking news about the positive tests at the Colts facility

The signing of Phillip Rivers hasn’t quite panned out the way the Colts would have hoped for with the aging signal caller showing some real signs of aging in last week’s loss Cleveland.

Cincinnati didn’t show a lot against the Ravens last week but they are a better team than that performance and rookie quarterback Joe Burrow is looking good in his maiden NFL season.

The problem with both of these teams is a major lack of consistency across the board and even down a couple of players, the Colts should still be able to keep Burrow on the run.

Chances are the first team to 20 wins this game and it could be either one so I’ll back the under.

New England Patriots v Denver Broncos
SGM: Patriots to Win & Cam Newton Anytime TD Scorer

It’s the game that can’t commit to a single kickoff time having already been postponed from its original Week 5 slot three times for a couple of different reasons to reach this window.

On the plus side for the Patriots, it means that they will head into this one with Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore able to suit up which only enhances their chances of victory (and inflates the line up to double digits).

Cam is the Patriots offence, as demonstrated by the struggles of Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham in Kansas City a fortnight ago.

When he goes, they go and I’ll back him to score a touchdown in a home victory here.

Jacksonville Jaguars v Detroit Lions
Adrian Peterson Anytime TD Scorer

Sometimes a bye week can work in a team’s favour, after seeing the Jags get gashed on the ground for the fourth straight week against the Texans, I’m feeling quite bullish on the Lions chances here.

Adrian Peterson has taken over the lead back role for Detroit and as long as the coaches don’t get stupid and stick with the simple formula, they should be able to get over the line in this game.

They only have three scores on the ground so far this season but there is no reason to think they’ll be kept out by this flimsy group up front for Jacksonville.

New York Giants v Washington Football Team
Giants HT/FT Double @ $2.35

Let’s not try and oversell this, neither of these teams are overly good, or even average at this point.

What you can say is that both of them come to play in most games, even if they find themselves overmatched from a talent perspective.

On recent form there’s an edge to be given to the Giants but only a slight one, they should win the .

Here you can bring out the old rule, when two bad teams play, back the home one.

Tennessee Titans v Houston Texans
Titans to Cover -3.5 @ $1.91

The Titans are only 3.5-point favourites this weekend because they are playing on five days rest against the Texans.

It should be a lot higher considering how good they looked in an utter demolition of the Buffalo Bills and how much Houston has struggled this season.

Admittedly the Texans 1-4 record can be partially attributed to a rough start to the schedule but the Titans are at least as good as the average of the four teams they have lost to as well.

Considering this is a divisional game there is every chance the Texans keep this close for a while but Tennessee has the ultimate closer in Derrick Henry.

Carolina Panthers v Chicago Bears
Mike Davis Anytime TD Scorer

It might not have been overly pretty for either team last week but the Bears and Panthers both picked up vital victories in Week 5.

Chicago might be the 4-1 team nobody believes in (and with good reason) but you can’t argue with the performance of their defence in the last two weeks.

On paper they should have no trouble stopping a Panthers offence missing its best player in Christian McCaffery but Matt Rhule and his staff have done a great job keeping things rolling with Mike Davis the primary replacement.

He has found the end zone in his last three games and with the head to head market a tough choice, I’ll go for Davis to score as the play for this game.

Philadelphia Eagles v Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore to Cover -7.5 @ $1.94

Say the worst case scenario is true for the Baltimore Ravens, say they are in fact just a flat track bully of a team, full of regular season heroes that tend to fall off a cliff come New Years Day.

Even if that is true, the Eagles are the perfect flat track opponent for the Ravens to steam roll by double digits.

Lamar Jackson isn’t running the same way he was last year, perhaps in part due to the knocks that have seen him on the injury report in previous weeks, but he doesn’t have to do too much to get his side home this weekend.

The defence is helping carry this team and the Eagles just have nothing in the passing game to keep this one close.

Minnesota Vikings v Atlanta Falcons
SGM: Vikings to Win & Alexander Mattison Anytime TD Scorer

There are two schools of thought regarding this game, either the Falcons are going to wake up following the firing of coach Dan Quinn, or their issues go well beyond the coaching.

It’s never encouraging when the team owner says that every player is potentially up for sale ahead of the trading deadline, but maybe it will give this defence a kick in the teeth.

Their pass defence is dreadful, giving up over 32 points per game so far and the Vikings have the offence to punish Atlanta both in the air and on the ground.

Even if star running back Dalvin Cook misses this game, his replacement Alexander Mattison can carry the load for a couple of weeks.

Miami Dolphins v New York Jets
Dolphins to Win by 14+ @ $2.35

On the surface, this tip may look like an overreaction to the Dolphins crushing the 49ers last week but it’s impossible to underreact to just how dreadful and miserable the Jets truly are.

Adam Gase is still in a job, seemingly in the hope that he will continue to destroy this franchise to “win” the first overall pick in next season’s draft (and if so I fully expect the leading QB prospects to decide another year in college isn’t that bad of an idea).

I would say losing Le’Veon Bell harms the Jets chances but they can’t get much worse, especially with Joe Flacco’s skeleton making another start this weekend.

Truthfully the main reason to watch this game in the fourth quarter is to see if the rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa gets some snaps on the back end of a Dolphins blowout.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Green Bay Packers
Over 55.5 Points @ $1.91

When the schedule came out earlier in the year, this was one of the games you singled out as a must watch and the first five weeks have only added to the hype.

Tom Brady has shown flashes but is still adjusting to a different style of play in Tampa (including about three times as many penalties as he’s used to), and he will be looking to make up for an embarrassing error against Chicago.

Aaron Rodgers is on a revenge tour this season, looking to prove to the league that he still has what it takes to be an elite quarterback and his production so far certainly supports that assertion.

I’ll back the relatively high over here considering the Packers have scored 30 or more points in all of their games while the Buccaneers have scored 31 and 38 at home so far as well.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns into a “last possession wins” sort of contest.

best bet
San Francisco 49ers v Los Angeles Rams
Rams to Cover -3.5 @ $2.02

It turns out the 49ers back to back wins in New Jersey were a red herring and the side is in dire straits as they struggle to field a properly healthy lineup.

That was still no excuse for the no-show against Miami last week and all of a sudden, things are in danger of spiralling out of control in California’s Bay Area.

Facing the Rams this week won’t make life any easier as Sean McVay’s side is rounding into some pretty impressive form.

Aaron Donald will be frothing at the mouth at the prospect of taking over this game and whoever starts at quarterback for the 49ers is going to be in for a very long night.

For some reason the line is at just over a field goal and looking like falling, I’ll happily back the Rams to cover anything under a touchdown.

Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs to Cover -4.5 @ $1.91

In what was originally set as the Friday morning (AEDT) game, it’s now the early Tuesday contest as a part of a double header.

Buffalo were outclassed by the Titans last week as their perfect start to the season was brought to a screeching halt in a 42-16 thumping.

Kansas City had their own 4-0 start ended by their division rivals Las Vegas as they lacked their usual sharpness on both sides of the ball.

The Bills have definitely grown under Sean McDermott over the last 18 months but they aren’t at the point where you just pencil them in for a bounce back game here.

The Chiefs have earned that benefit of the doubt and I’ll take them to win and cover here, even if they are still finding their feet.

Arizona Cardinals v Dallas Cowboys
SGM: Cardinals to Win & Kyler Murray Anytime TD Scorer

This game was shaping up as an all time shootout in the desert based on how both teams were playing in the opening five weeks.

Unfortunately we were robbed of Dak Prescott after his brutal broken ankle last week and while Andy Dalton is a more than capable replacement, it’s just not going to be the operating at the same level.

What hasn’t changed is just how brutally bad this Cowboys defence is to watch and it’s hard to see them having any real success stopping the Cardinals fast paced offence.