Thanksgiving doesn’t mean much to the majority of Australians, but it does to NFL fans.
It means we are treated to three excellent games this Friday!
With all 32 franchises back in action over the same weekend for the first time since week three, this is going to be an outstanding slate of matches and there is plenty of value to be found.
We have analysed every game set to take place this weekend and our complete NFL Week 13 tips can be found below!
The Thanksgiving slate gets underway with what is, let’s be honest, the most underwhelming of the three clashes. There is still a winner to be found though and I think that winner will be the Unders in Total Points betting. The Under has saluted in the past three matches played between these two sides and backing the Under in Chicago Bears in particularly has been a highly profitable play this season.
It is incredible that Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Jason Garrett still has a job. No coach has made more errors in the NFL over the past decade and, despite having an excellent roster, the Cowboys continue to fail to take the next step. They are ridiculously short at their current price of $1.33 and I couldn’t possibly back them. I’ve made it very clear that I think the Buffalo Bills are overrated, but to their credit they just keep on winning games. There is nowhere near as much between these two teams as the current market suggests and the Bills are a great bet to cover the line.
The rivalry between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints is one of the best in the NFL and they always produce the goods when they do battle. The Falcons scored a shock win over the Saints when they met less than a month ago, but since then the Saints have gone on to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers. They surely can’t drop another game against their fierce rivals. In saying that, I won’t be diving in to back the Saints at their current price and this is another game where the Under does look appealing.
Remember last week when I told you that Carson Wentz was no good? I was right. The Eagles were no match for the Seattle Seahawks last weekend and are NFL Playoffs pretenders. They should have too much quality for the Miami Dolphins, but $1.21 is short. The Under has saluted in the past three matches played between these two sides and I will once again be a Grinch cheering against points being scored.
I’m normally critical of the AFC South, but this looks like one of the most interesting games of the weekend. Moving on from Marcus Mariota has been the best thing that the Tennessee Titans have ever done, outside of drafting my boy Vince Young, and Ryan Tannehill has been a revelation for them. This is a tough task for them though. The Indianapolis Colts have won the past three matches played between these two sides and they have won 16 of their past 17 games against their rivals as favourites. This is a key game for the Colts and I expect them to return to winning form.
The tank is well and truly on at Cincinnati. They have their hands on the number one draft pick at the moment and it is very tough to see that changing. The New York Jets have shown some signs of life in recent weeks and quarterback Sam Darnold was particularly impressive last week against the Oakland Raiders. Does that mean I’m willing to back them? Sort of. I still can’t bring myself to back the Jets to win, but I do think they can keep the useless Bengals to Under 18.5 points.
The Washington Redskins look like the only side capable of stealing the number one draft pick away from the Cincinnati Bengals, but they did themselves no favours by beating the Detroit Lions last weekend. They might actually be a sneaky chance to make it back-to-back wins. The Carolina Panthers have lost three games on the trot and they have won only two of their past seven games at home. I’m not sure that the Redskins are good enough to win, but they can keep it close and the 10 point line is utter craziness.
It is an absolute travesty that this game is not getting played in Prime Time and it could be a Super Bowl preview. If you aren’t enjoying watching the Baltimore Ravens at the moment, you really should just give up on football. Lamar Jackson is simply incredible and he is the MVP elect. In saying that, I do think that the Ravens are a touch on the short side. The San Francisco 49ers made a believer of me with their big win over the Green Bay Packers and their defence might be the one that is finally able to stop Jackson. The $3.25 currently available is big overs.
I am starting to come around on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They continue to be inconsistent and their defence is appalling, but they are always good to watch and they showed good composure to get the job done against the Atlanta Falcons last weekend. In contrast, the Jacksonville Jaguars may be the most irrelevant franchise in the NFL. They have lost three games on the trot and their defence, which has kept them relevant the past couple of years, looks to have given up. They have won only one of their past four matches as home favourites and I am keen to take them on again.
The Green Bay Packers look like the safest betting play of the weekend and if they lost this game they should be banned from the NFL Playoffs. The Packers were no match for the San Francisco 49ers last weekend, but it is rare to see them drop back-to-back games and they have been putting away teams like the New York Giants fairly comfortably this season. The Giants have now lost seven games in a row and it would be a shock if the Packers don’t win and win big.
I can’t wait for this one. The football will probably be awful, but there is no love lost between these two sides following the brawl and helmet swinging that occurred at the end of their most recent clash a fortnight ago. The fact that are playing again so soon is truly glorious and I only wish that the NFL would allow Myles Garrett to forgo his suspension and take his place for the Browns. Who is going to win though? The Browns were far too good for the Steelers in that clash, but betting against them continues to be a profitable play and they are due another meltdown. Mason Rudolph can get his revenge, if the Steelers actually start him, and help Pittsburgh to an upset win.
All is right in the NFL world – everybody hates Jared Goff again. Goff showed some promise last season and took the Los Angeles Rams to the Super Bowl, but he has reverted to his mean this season and that is a serious low. The Rams aren’t much good on either side of the ball and they were absolute torn apart by Lamar Jackson last week. Could Kyler Murray do the same? I don’t see why not. I continue to argue that the Arizona Cardinals are a better team than their current record suggests and this is an ideal opportunity for them to return to winning form.
The battle for last in the AFC West could be decided in this clash. Both these teams have been huge disappointments this season, particularly the Chargers, and it is tough to have faith in either of them from a betting perspective. I won’t be backing either of them, but this is another clash where the Unders does appeal. The Under has saluted in 12 of the past 16 matches played by the Broncos and has also been a profitable play in Chargers games’ this season.
This one could get ugly. The Oakland Raiders defence was completely torched by Sam Darnold and Patrick Mahomes is about 100 times better than Darnold. The Kansas City Chiefs have won nine of their past ten matches against the Raiders and it would be a huge surprise if they were unable to extend that streak in this clash. Back the Chiefs to win and win comfortably.
The rivalry between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots has been dominated by one man. Tom Brady. Brady seems to always produce his best against the Texans and the Patriots have absolutely dominated them in recent years. The Patriots have won the past ten matches played between the two sides and the majority of those wins have been by big margins. Their offence still hasn’t really fired, but the Patriots just keep on finding ways to win and their record against the Texans suggests that they will do the same again.
Lamar Jackson is getting all the hype, but Russell Wilson is also killing it this season. There may not be a single player in the NFL that plays such a pivotal role in his sides success or failure and Wilson has almost single-handily carried the Seattle Seahawks across the line in a number of games this season. The Seahawks have won seven of their past eight games and they have won their past five matches against the Minnesota Vikings. Despite their record, I’m not sure that there is a huge amount special about the Vikings and the Seahawks should win this game comfortably.