The Week 11 Sunday slate concludes with an intriguing NFC North battle as the 6-3 Bears play host to the 5-3-1 Vikings. Both teams have impressed so far this season and would be in the playoffs if they started today. The Bears in particular have outperformed preseason expectations and enter this one off 3 straight wins. Minnesota has rebounded from what was a difficult start and look to be gearing up for another playoff push. With the winner of this game taking sole possession of the NFC North lead, I’m expecting a hard-fought and entertaining affair in Chicago. Let’s take a look at our 3 best bets on the board in this one.
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass Monday 12:20 pm
Chicago Bears
The Bears enter this one at an impressive 6-3 record after 3 consecutive victories over the Jets, Bills and Lions. QB Mitchell Trubisky has been excellent of late, completing 23/30 passes for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns against Detroit last week. This effort was much needed as the Chicago rushing attack struggled mightily to get going, totalling only 54 yards on 22 carries. Wide Receiver Allen Robinson enjoyed by far his best outing of the season last week, totalling 133 yards and 2 touchdowns. This was balanced nicely by an impressive display from Rookie Anthony Miller, who managed 122 yards and a touchdown of his own.
Defensively, the Bears are coming off 3 very strong consecutive performances. However, these did occur against 3 of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Led by Khalil Mack, their dynamic pass rush dominated Detroit with ease, registering 6 sacks and 3 forced fumbles. They also limited the previously strong Lions rushing attack, holding them to just 76 yards on 3.2 yards per attempt. Two big interceptions from Bryce Callahan and Prince Amukamara were the icing on the cake of a great day. Against a Minnesota attack that is better than anything they’ve faced recently, this defence will have to be on top of their game here.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings enter this one fresh off their bye, with a 5-3-1 record that places them a half game behind the Bears for first place in the NFC North. Free Agent acquisition has been a significant upgrade at QB over Case Keenum, completing only 71% of his passes for 17 touchdowns compared to just 5 interceptions. RB Dalvin Cook also looked very strong in his return from injury, putting up 109 yards from scrimmage in just 14 touches last time out. In Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, the Vikings also have one of the best receiving duos in the NFL, capably supported by veteran Tight End Kyle Rudolph.
Defensively, the Vikings have looked very strong recently, holding their opponents to 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4. They destroyed Detroit before their bye, holding Matt Stafford under 200 passing yards and sacking him a whopping 10 times. Defensive End Danielle Hunter earned Defensive Player of the Week honours for his 3.5 sack performance, which was capably supported by 2.5 sacks by Tom Johnson. They also held the Lions rushing attack under 3 yards per carry, which was instrumental in pulling out the win. In a tough Chicago environment, they’ll be looking to repeat this effort here.
Best Bets
Vikings +3
I’ve been high on the Vikings all season and think that they’re the better team here. Aside from an aberration at home against the Bills, their only 2 losses this season have been against the Rams and Saints, two of the top three teams in the league so far. This roster is actually stronger on paper than the team that made the NFC Championship last season, largely due to the huge upgrade at Quarterback.
Despite putting up some strong numbers, I believe Mitchell Trubisky has become overrated by the oddsmakers. He delivered sub-par performances against Green Bay and New England in losses earlier this season and hasn’t faced a defence with Minnesota’s quality. In a primetime game in front of a national audience, I think Kirk Cousins can outduel him here. Whilst I expect the Vikings to win this one outright, the 3 points represents strong value.
Over 45.5 Points
Whilst the Bears are renowned for strong defensive play, their match total has gone above this line in 5 of their last 6 games. Part of this is the very strong performances from their offence, which hasn’t put up below 24 points in its last 6 outings. The Vikings offence has also been firing in that stretch, scoring at least 23 each week over the same stretch.
Whilst both of these sides have formidable defences, the offences have shown this season that they are very much up to the challenge. 45.5 points really isn’t all that much in the modern NFL, particularly on a primetime Sunday Night Football game. With the total going over this number in 8 of their last 10 combined games, I’m expecting this trend to continue here. The points total is about 5-6 points too low and there is some good value on the over.
1st TD Scorer: Dalvin Cook
There was a ton of talk in the pre-season about the impact that Dalvin Cook was going to have on the Vikings offence this season. He looked excellent in his first 4 games as a rookie, before unfortunately suffering a season-ending injury. Unfortunately, he suffered the same fate this season, missing 5 games after suffering an injury against LA. In his return against Detroit last week, Cook looked incredibly dynamic. He picked up 109 yards on 14 total touches and is an excellent threat both as a runner and receiver. This makes him a threat from all over the field and I expect him to get some run in the red-zone here.
Score Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27-23 Chicago Bears