Do you have a seat at the Table?
What table? It’s like the High Table in John Wick. All of the most powerful teams in the AFL are on this table together, as equals and as competitors. Among them, they’ll decide who gets to win the premiership.
But what is it?
The Table is a group of six teams that can win the premiership. That’s it. Only six. I will check in on the Table at about the ¾ mark of the season and then on the eve of the finals and, if all goes well, one of the teams on the Table will win the premiership.
You can only have six teams with a seat at the Table at any given time, so if I want to put a team on, I have to take someone off. The catch is, if I take someone off, they can’t be put back on the table.
There’s no getting back together with an ex here. This is not the game for Ben Affleck.
As we head toward the bye rounds with everyone having played eleven rounds, it’s time for the first look at who has a seat at the Table and who is on the cusp for next time. These are not in any order, nor are they tiered.
Imagine if on the High Table the Russian mob put themselves on top of the Camorra. Nightmare for them, and it’d be a nightmare for me to do the same.
Sydney
The way they’re playing with the ball would have looked like witchcraft like five years ago, as they’re currently gaining 702 metres per game by handball. They’ve averaged closer to 800 over the last five games. For reference, in 2021 Richmond led the league in that stat with about 400.
The Swans are currently trying to invent the Fosbury Flop and it’s working.
While they don’t have any winners behind the ball and really get by defensively on pressure, that’s a reasonable way to live when you score as heavily as they do. No doubt, they’re on the table.
Fremantle
This is, in my view, the very best list in the AFL. Unlike Sydney, they have winners across every line and also a game defining key forward in Josh Treacy.
While they’re big on wharfie time, the Dockers aren’t really wharfies. They’re more like an aircraft carrier sending out Goose and Maverick whenever they need a winner.
There’s currently nobody better at clicking through gears depending on what the game demands it. Time and again, the game has been close heading into the last quarter and far apart when the game. It happened against St Kilda last week, just as well as it happened against Hawthorn, just as well as it did against the Bulldogs.
While their usual posture is to play slower footy than I would like, the fact that they can put the throttle down basically when they feel like it guarantees them a seat at the Table.
Hawthorn
The Hawks are 1-1-2 over their last month as they’ve dealt with a few absences, particularly to their bookends Tom Barrass and Jack Gunston. As a result, their statistical profile over the last month or so is a little down as they’re struggling for inside 50 retention and scores per inside 50 offensively and are generally middle of the pack defensively.
However, over the same period they’re still top four in scores from turnover differential, forward 50 ground ball gets, and post clearance ground ball gets. That indicates that these Hawks still do everything around the ground that makes them good, they’re just missing the players on either end that turn good process into good results.
Forgive me for not thinking Blake Hardwick can replace Jack Gunston long-term.
But the good news is, neither Barrass nor Gunston are expected out long term and this is a good time to have a little downturn before launching into the future. The Hawks and their aggressive running and ground ball brilliance are on the Table.
Geelong
If I did this exercise in 2021, Geelong would have been at the Table.
Just like they would have been in 2011.
If the Table operated like the UN, Geelong would be like one of the five permanent members of the Security Council, except imagine if it meant anything.
Since their premiership in 2022, the Cats have overturned their list and turned footy into an athletics carnival, managing to run teams off their feet for game after game. They’ve turned that elite athletic profile into complete dominance in front half scoring, scoring heavily off both stoppage and turnover despite not having an elite inside midfield mix or an elite ruckman. They just have great around the ball structures that get their athletes into space.
Max Holmes and Bailey Smith have defined that shift. Smith, who turbocharged the change when he arrived from the Dogs, deserves particular mention. While nobody is as interested in Bailey Smith as Bailey Smith, you cannot deny that he’s playing elite footy as he currently sits top 3 in metres gained and score involvements. I’m also not sure if he’s ever been tired.
You add Jeremy Cameron playing better than he did to start the year, Tom Stewart having a renaissance year, and all the role players playing well and the Cats once again are at the Table.
Gold Coast
The top four was easy. Now it gets hard.
I picked Gold Coast for the premiership and there’s real argument to be made that I’m just hanging onto my priors, particularly after I just watched Gold Coast completely stop for the last quarter against North Melbourne.
But, I still think they deserve a seat. You can blame that loss on the top end tax and Gold Coast’s underlying metrics are still strong, sitting fourth in the premiership metrics. They’re also doing most of the Hardwick things, sitting second in time in forward half, third in scores from forward half and fourth in scores from turnover even without elite pressure forwards.
We know that brand works, and we know that their good players are really good.
So, while Gold Coast is still a little bit of a Boardwalk Empire where I’m confused about why they aren’t better, I think they need a seat.
Brisbane
Bloody hell. You want to talk about holding onto priors. The back-to-back champs are on the ropes.
Brisbane cannot defend transition and it’s killing them. For the season, Brisbane is giving up the second most points from the back half and are the second worst at stopping the ball at going from D50 to a score. Only Essendon is worse.
And it’s getting worse, as they’ve given up two of their three worst games at defending transition over the last two weeks against GWS and Geelong. The Giants kicked 14 straight goals against them on the weekend.
The Lions mids, particularly Will Ashcroft, just aren’t running defensively. The Lions forwards don’t pressure anymore. Over the last five games, Brisbane is fourth lowest for tackles inside 50 and 17th in time in forward half. Last year they were fourth and eighth.
But are you willing to write them off? Really? After two premierships and proof that they can throw away flip a switch as well as anyone?
I’m treating them like I treated Robert De Niro after Dirty Grandpa. I’m not done with them yet, and I believe they’ve got one more in them, but they need to show me.
De Niro had Killers of the Flower Moon. Do the Lions have something similar?
On the Cusp
Melbourne
They’re just very high variance. Sometimes it’s the Palestinian chicken episode, and other times it’s a whole season of Irma Kostroski.
GWS
They’re weird. I have no idea how you make such hard work of losing to West Coast then you put 14 goals in a quarter on Brisbane.
I don’t understand it.
And granted, playing Brisbane is kind of a perfect storm for them because GWS only wants to kick goals based on ball movement and Brisbane can’t stop ball movement but still. They kicked 14 of them. In a quarter.
If they can start playing a little more front half footy, with the talent they have currently on the park and returning, Maybe it’s recency bias, but after that game GWS has to be one of the teams that could get hot and go on a run. I refuse to count them out.