We have just six rounds to play and so many matches are set to have a huge bearing on the finals.
Friday night’s clash in Perth is an all-Top 8 affair with the Roosters looking to secure a Top 4 spot while the Dolphins are fighting for their finals life.
The Sharks and Cowboys are heavily favoured against teams out of the running so will be expecting to at a minimum maintain their position while the Bulldogs are favoured against ninth-placed Canberra with the Raiders needing to keep winning.
The Dragons and Knights sit 10th and 11th and face monumental tasks this week, playing in Penrith and Melbourne respectively.
The Wests Tigers are a huge price at home to beat North Queensland, something they did to the tune of 66-18 when the teams met here last in mid-2023.
There is little doubt that the Cowboys are the better team but they should not be favoured by double digits in a game the Tigers can absolutely win.
Benji Marshall’s team has lost Fonua Pole, Starford To’a and Luke Laulilii to injury but David Klemmer, Justin Olam and Solomon Alaimalo look arguably an upgrade.
The Cowboys have major concerns in their middle with both Reuben Cotter and Jason Taumalolo out.
The Tigers have covered six of eight at Leichhardt when an outsider and are 12-6 against the spread when a double digit underdog off conceding 30-plus, and the Cowboys have covered just 12 of 30 interstate.
Koroisau has three tries in his last nine games, while Papalii scored in his return from injury and now has three tries in his last three games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Wests Tigers +10.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Wests Tigers Win ($3.35)
- Tryscorer: Api Koroisau ($29 First, $3.90 Anytime)
- SGM: Api Koroisau Try/Isaiah Papalii Try ($21.47)
It is likely to be a procession when the Warriors host the hapless Eels with the Warriors keen to give another sold-out home crowd plenty to cheer about.
The Eels remain without star half Mitchell Moses and they remain coached by Trent Barrett, who is 13-52 across his last four seasons as a head coach.
The Warriors received plenty of positive news with some key ins including halfback Shaun Johnson, but the big query around the Warriors is their failure to cover any of their six games as a double digit favourite across the last four years so fancy the over 49.5 is a safer bet.
When these teams play, the over is 16-6 and has hit in the last five.
It is also 14-3 when the Warriors are off scoring at least 28 points and is 23-11 when the Eels are off a loss of seven or more.
Addin Fonua-Blake is about as short as a prop gets but the Eels middle is desperately soft and he has 17 tries in 44 games across the last two seasons.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has scored in both his starts on the wing this season and Watene-Zelezniak has five tries in his last seven games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Over 49.5 Total Points ($1.90)
- Next: 61+ Total Points ($4.50)
- Tryscorer: Addin Fonua-Blake ($12.50 First, $2.20 Anytime)
- SGM: Addin Fonua-Blake Try/Roger Tuivasa-Sheck Try/Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Try
The Dolphins are not without a shot when they tackle the third-placed Sydney Roosters in Perth on Friday night.
The Roosters have Joey Manu returning but the Roosters cover at just 42.9% when off a win while they are 22-33 against the spread when playing Top 8 opposition.
In the post-Origin period, the Dolphins have seen their form fall off sharply but they are a very impressive 12-6 against the spread when getting a start of eight or more and they have covered five of seven against Top 4 opposition.
The line here looks too big.
Jack Bostock is a tryscoring machine who has 13 tries in 17 games in his first full season as an NRL regular.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 11 tries in 10 appearances this year and Tedesco is in hot tryscoring form with three tries in his last four games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Dolphins +11.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Tribet 1-6: Either Team Wins by Under 6.5 ($5.60)
- Tryscorer: Jack Bostock ($10.50 First, $1.90 Anytime)
- SGM: Jack Bostock Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/James Tedesco Try ($8.36)
The Titans are home underdogs in this match against the Broncos and it makes almost no sense.
Gold Coast have been betting darlings of late while Brisbane have managed just a single win from their last seven games.
The Broncos do need to win out to make the finals but desperation hardly seems like a reason to bet the Broncos, particularly after the embarrassment of last week when the team was underprepared and poorly coached.
Brisbane has lost Selwyn Cobbo while Gold Coast potentially see AJ Brimson return.
The Titans have covered a remarkable nine of 10 getting a start of at least a try while the Broncos have covered just one of seven as a favourite.
It would not shock at all if the Titans ran away with this.
Khan-Pereira is the leading tryscorer in the NRL with 19 tries including nine in his last five.
Randall has three tries in his last six starts when not playing hooker and the Broncos allow a lot of tries through the middle.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Gold Coast +5.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Gold Coast Win ($2.45)
- Tryscorer: Alofiana Khan Pereira ($7.50 First, $1.46 Anytime)
- SGM: Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try/Chris Randall Try ($7.36)
Melbourne are obscenely big favourites at home this week against St George Illawarra but it is a line that seems far too big.
The Storm have just two wins of more than 18 points this year while the Dragons have bounced back well under Shane Flanagan, winning three of four this season after conceding 40-plus.
The Dragons have covered four of their last five interstate but most notably teams off conceding 46 or more cover at 61%.
Expect the Dragons to be able to keep this one close enough.
From a tryscorers perspective, St George Illawarra conceded a hattrick to Panthers No.7 Nathan Cleary last week and Jahrome Hughes knows his way to the tryline.
The Pap has eight tries in seven appearances against teams outside the Top 8 this year and Anderson is hot with four tries in his last three matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra +19.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne 1-12 ($3.70)
- Tryscorer: Jahrome Hughes ($17 First, $2.70 Anytime)
- SGM: Jahrome Hughes Try/Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Grant Anderson Try ($7.26)
Top 4 teams coming off a defeat over the backend of the season have a tremendous cover record with those teams making the nut the following game at a clip of 85% when the game is played in Round 21 or beyond.
That puts the Sharks in a super spot with Cronulla soundly beaten by North Queensland in Townsville last week.
Will Kennedy returns this week in a massive in for Cronulla while the South Sydney injury toll continues to build with Alex Johnston the latest out.
Souths have nothing to play for while Cronulla have covered eight of 12 at home when a double digit favourite.
Trindall has seven tries in his last eight games, Katoa has seven tries in his last six appearances and Kennedy has been down in scoring this year but is turning it around with three in his last eight.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Cronulla -11.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Exact Winning Margin Cronulla 30+ ($5.20)
- Tryscorer: Braydon Trindall ($15 First, $2.60 Anytime)
- SGM: Braydon Trindall Try/Sione Katoa Try/Will Kennedy Try ($9.91)
Penrith showed their hand last weekend when they went to Wollongong and embarrassed St George Illawarra last week.
Origin is over and the run for a fourth straight premiership has begun, oh and Nathan Cleary is back.
It is worth noting though that Penrith are now without their first two choice fullbacks while James Fisher-Harris is also out.
The Panthers have covered just four of their last 11 home games when favoured by double digits.
Adam O’Brien has once-again tinkered with his halves and has once-again managed to unnecessarily disrupt his side but this is a team that played well in the day (14-3 against the spread) and have covered their last four on the road when a double digit underdog.
Liam Martin comes off an impressive try and will benefit having Cleary back, Iongi and McLean are two young speedsters who can take advantage of the worrying edge Knights defence.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle +17.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Penrith 1-12 ($3.50)
- Tryscorer: Liam Martin ($19 First, $3 Anytime)
- SGM: Isaiah Iongi Try/Liam Martin Try/Casey McLean Try ($14.61)
Canterbury are the fairytale team of 2024 with the Bulldogs making an unlikely run to fifth on the table.
It has not only inspired their fans but has been a dream for bettors with the Bulldogs covering 12 of their last 16.
There is no reason to get off the Bulldogs train now even though the Raiders have won nine straight against Canterbury.
Cameron Ciraldo’s men have covered six of eight day games and six of eight off scoring 30-plus while the Raiders are 15-31 against the spread off a win.
Xerri has scored in his last three and Kikau has scored twice in his last five against the Raiders.
Recommended Bets
Best: Canterbury -8.5 ($1.90)
Next: Canterbury 13+ ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Bronson Xerri ($13 First, $2.15 Anytime)
SGM: Bronson Xerri Try/Viliame Kikau Try ($7.70)