The Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks are set to compete for the 2023/24 NBA “World Title”.
The pair will play a best of seven game series, commencing at the TD Garden this Friday morning (AEST).
BOSTON CELTICS
The Celtics are vying for a record 18th Championship, and their first NBA Title since 2008.
Boston has been threatening to win a chip for some time now, reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in six of the last eight seasons, and the NBA Finals twice in the past three years.
This season’s additions of Kristaps Porzingas and Jrue Holiday have substantially elevated the title favourites at both ends of the courts, Porzingas has averaged 23 points throughout the regular season, while Jrue has been nothing shy of elite on the defensive end.
The C’s finished the regular season 64-18, 14 wins clear of 2nd place in the East (Knicks), and seven wins better than the best of the West (OKC), earning themselves home court advantage all the way through the post season.
Jayson Tatum led the Celts in both scoring (26.9) and rebounding (8.1) during the regular season, while Derrick White averaged the most assists (5.2).
Boston’s Path to The Finals:
The Celts were handed one of the easiest pathways to the NBA Finals in years!
They blew past the Heat 4-1 in Round One, though Miami was missing Boston strangler, Jimmy Buttler.
Round two saw them go 4-1 against a Cavs side who were without Jarret Allen and then lost Donovan Mitchell after 3 games.
Before they eventually swept the 6th seeded Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, again, Indiana lost their best player (Halliburton) halfway through the series.
Irregardless of their opponents misfortunes, the Celtics efficiently took care of business, dropping just two games across three rounds, while going undefeated on the road.
DALLAS MAVERICKS
The Mavs return to the NBA Finals for a third time, after appearances in 2006 and 2011, both against Miami Heat.
Last time Dallas was in the Finals (2011), they claimed a huge upset against the LeBron led Miami “Super Team”, playing in that series was now head coach, Jason Kidd.
The Mavs will assume the Underdog tag once again here, starting at $2.75 to win their 2nd ever chip.
Dallas finished the regular season with a 50-32 record, earning themselves 5th seed in the West, the same record would’ve placed them 2nd in the East.
Before the 2024 trade deadline, the Mavs were sitting 8th in the West with their season hanging on the line, then everything changed!
Dallas’s front office traded Grant Williams to the Hornets for PJ Washington, then acquired Daniel Gafford form the Wizards, proceeding to go 21-9 on the run into the post season, while having the #1 ranked defence across the trip.
Luka Doncic led all stats for Dallas during the regular season, averaging 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists, file finishing 3rd in the MVP voting.
Mav’s Path to The Finals:
The Mavericks have been underdogs heading into each round of the playoffs, and that won’t change for the Finals.
Dallas faced the Clippers in the opening round, winning the series in 6 after dropping Game 1, although LA were without Kawhi for most of the match-up.
Round 2 saw the Mavs take on Western Conference 1st seeds, OKC. Dallas won in 6 again, despite losing Game 1, with PJ Washington shooting the lights out from three throughout the series.
The Mavericks most comprehensive series win came in the WCF, seeing off 2nd seeded Timberwolves in 5, a series which Doncic dominated from start to finish.
Series Winner: Boston $1.45
Boston are justifiable favourites here, their depth of talent through positions 1-6 is unmatched in the league.
The Mavericks have a much-improved defence, though their strength is stopping sides getting into the paint, whereas the Celtics offense is most damaging on the perimeter, having attempted and made more 3’s than any side in the comp.
Series Correct Score: Boston 4-2 $5.25
t feels like this series will go 6 or 7 games, Boston are undefeated on the road during the post season, and I can see them closing out the Finals in Dallas.
If the Celts allow a Game 7, I fear that Luka will go God mode and snatch their souls in front of their helpless fans.
Finals MVP: Jaylen Brown $7, Luka Doncic $3
I’m taking a value play for Finals MVP, betting around Tatum. Jaylen Brown enters this series off the back of claiming the WCF MVP, and has been made massive plays on both ends of the court in the clutch. While, Dallas will likely assign their best defensive options to Tatum, allowing Jaylen more freedom.
I’m also taking Luka, more or less to hedge against a Boston series win, if the Mavs spring an upset, it’s Doncic’s trophy.
Most Points: Luka $1.50, Jaylen Brown $12
Barring an injury, Luka should score the most points in this game by a considerable margin, Doncic has is averaging 28.8 across the post season, bettering both Tatum (26) and Brown (25).
Jaylen Brown is my value play here, if it clicks for him from deep, he is more than capable of putting up 30+ points per game.
Most 3’s: Luka $2.15, PJ Washington $23
Luka’s usage rate positions him as a clear favourite for all scoring markets, the Serbian guard isn’t afraid to jack-up a logo 3, and there’s not many players he can’t shoot over.
PJ is my value play for this market, the Celts might focus their defensive efforts on deterring Luka and Kyrie from getting to the rim, this will open up the corner 3’s for PJ Wasington and Derrick Jones Jr.