Football’s night of nights is upon us again, as the glitz, glamour, and drama of the Brownlow Medal gets underway at Melbourne’s Crown Casino on Monday night.
Up until Round 21, it was a case of Nick Daicos vs. the field, but a late-season injury changed everything and we could be in for one of the more thrilling Brownlow counts that we’ve seen in recent years.
Will Nick Daicos hold on?
Can the Bont finally snag one?
Does Christian Petracca have all the ingredients?
Is it true that everyone knows it’s Butters?
Got a feel for Neale?
Perhaps there’s an upset on the cards!
With a heap of different, fun, and competitive markets, the Brownlow medal is always a great one for Punters.
I’ve plucked out a few of my favorites where I see a bit of value in the count in our 2023 Brownlow Medal Tips & Preview
Much of the attention will be on Marcus Bontempelli ($2.90), Nick Daicos ($2.90), Zak Butters ($5.50) and Christian Petracca ($6.50) to win the Brownlow.
Some outlets, such as the Herald Sun are even predicting a tied result ($5) between the Bont and Nick Daicos.
However, sometimes we forget who is polling the votes – the umpires.
They love ball magnets and well-behaved players and when a Brownlow market is competitive as to what we have seen this year, upset results to occur.
Hence why I think Lachie Neale from the Brisbane Lions has a very good chance to win his second Brownlow medal on Monday night and is outstanding value at the $13 on offer at the time of publishing.
Neale didn’t make All-Australian this year but was a regular in the coaches’ votes – coming fifth overall.
Some Brownlow predictors, such as afl.com.au have a 22-vote gap between the 2020 winner and his teammates, with Charlie Cameron next on 10.
Neale has averaged 27.1 disposals this season, 10 of which have been 30+ (including 37 against North Melbourne back in Round 5), in the last two weeks of the home and away season he got 31 disposals in a best-on-ground performances against Collingwood and 30 in the Round 24 St Kilda clash.
Expect a string of two and three-vote games between Rounds 13 and 17 where Neale was averaging 32 disposals per game, which will easily grab the umpire’s attention when it comes to dishing out the votes.
In what should be a competitive race, Neale has every chance to pull ahead as the winner or possibly tie with one or both of Bont and Daicos and become a dual Brownlow Medallist.
When Port was on their 13-game winning streak, Zak Butters was dominating.
Along with his teammate Connor Rozee, the two made for quite the dynamic pair in the midfield.
Back in Round 10 against Melbourne, Butters suffered a case of serious leather poisoning gaining a career-high 42 disposals, 18 of those contested, and 10 clearances along with two goals with a season average of 27.5 per game.
It’s been a terrific year for Butters, named All-Australian, champion player of the year from the AFL Coaches Association, the Triple M-VP award, most courageous in the AFLPA awards, and third place in the MVP.
He’ll poll plenty and poll high.
Take the $1.75 on offer for a top-three placing in the count.
Despite some pundits regarding him as the 151st best player in the competition, and being denied a spot in the All-Australian squad the former Giant turned Tiger has had an outstanding year and will poll plenty of votes.
From Rounds 6 to 14, Taranto found himself best on ground week after week with some vote predictors having the Tiger midfielder on track to poll up to 26 votes for this season.
Taranto will be in the top 10 vote-getters on the night and there’s plenty of scope for him to sneak into the top five by the end of the count.
The $2.75 on offer is outstanding value.
The Top 20 market is always one of the more interesting and top-value markets Brownlow Medal betting has to offer.
While a lot of the attention has been on his younger brother this season and in the Brownlow, making him the Danni Minogue of the pair, Daicos of the Josh variety has been as good a performer for the Pies this season and has constantly been amongst their best week in, week out.
While N. Daicos 3 Votes will be said a fair few times during the night, factor in that when Nick was out with injury for the end of the home and away season, Josh managed to get 38 disposals in the Pies eight-point win over the Cats in Round 22.
Expect “J Daicos 3 votes” to be called out by Gill for that one.
There’s every chance a fair few games of this season will see the Daicos name be called out twice been Josh and Nick, with Josh getting one or two and Nick getting three.
Josh to get in the top 20 is better than his brother to win the medal value wise and I’m happy to take the $3.50 on offer.
This market can be a bit of a lucky dip at times, so it’s best you look towards your own club of support and think about who stood out in big wins during the season.
Richmond made a stunning comeback against Hawthorn back in Round 19, trailing by 30 points at three-quarter time to win by one point.
While Jai Newcombe and James Sicily should poll in this match, Jack Graham managed 21 disposals, 15 kicks, and a goal but was named the best in the match reports and came second in the coaches’ votes with six for the match.
If he’s going to poll a vote in any match, Round 19 would be it, and happy to take the $2 on offer.