Football’s night of nights is upon us again this Sunday night as the Brownlow Medal returns home to Melbourne’s Crown Casino for the first time since 2019.
It’s a historic night for the Brownlow as it will be the last time Gillion McLachlan reads out the votes for the last time, giving his own unique take on the count with the added pause for dramatic effect which he learnt from his predecessor Andrew Demetriou.
Brisbane’s Lachie Neale, Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver and Carlton’s Patrick Cripps are the market leaders but Brownlow Medal night has been known to throw a few surprises over the years.
While only one award is given out for the whole event, there are plenty of opportunities for the Punters to find a few winners from the count.
We’ve sifted through our markets and found our best bets in our 2022 Brownlow Medal tips and preview.
The phrase “Dual Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale” seems about right, and the Lions superstar midfielder seems very much on track to win his second Brownlow in three seasons.
Neale played all 22 games this season with an average of 30 disposals, had most of the Sherrin for 11 Lions wins and kicked at least 1+ goal in seven of those games and in many matches was judged best on ground or came second in the votes.
These stats tick all the boxes for someone who polls Brownlow votes and most of these indicators were also achieved by nine of the last 10 players to take Charlie home – including Neale himself when he won by the length of the Flemington straight in 2020.
The only game where he won’t be polling votes is the Lions’ Round 23 loss to the Demons, however, he may have already gotten himself the medal by then.
While I expect a tight finish in the medal overall, Neale will be streets ahead of any of his Lions teammates when it comes to getting votes and given Brisbane won 15 games during the home and away season, all roads point to a Lachie Neale Brownlow.
Gill’s final Brownlow count could be his best one yet.
While we think Lachie Neale will win another Brownlow, it’s also a case of who will win it with him as many a Brownlow predictor has pencilled in dual winners.
Some have a Neale-Cripps Brownlow, others have a Neale-Oliver Brownlow and I think we’re due our first Brownlow tie since Trent Cotchin and Sam Mitchell back in 2012 (I can hear the Bomber fans’ fury as I type this)
Carlton’s Patrick Cripps could be an excellent chance to equal or even (hopefully not) pip Lachie Neale.
While there was a bit of a mid-season slowdown, his early form should see him poll plenty of votes not to mention his epic effort in Carlton’s tragic round 23 loss for which he is every chance to gather 3 votes along with thanking the AFL appeals board in the process.
Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver is also very much a chance to also win a Brownlow and at the time of publishing was in the second line of betting at $3.75
Don’t rule out Oliver’s 30 disposals in the Demons’ 58-point win over Brisbane in Round 23 the one that sees him equal with Lachie Neale on Brownlow night.
If he was playing for a big club, Miller would be spoken of as one of the superstars of the AFL, but alas, he is an off-broadway (or Broadbeach should I say) beauty for the Gold Coast Suns.
While he wasn’t amongst the Suns best in their big win over North in the final round, Miller made a late charge towards the end of the season averaging 28.5 disposals a game and was amongst it as the Suns played some of their finest footy in season 2022.
Various vote predictors have Miller at the 21 – 22 vote mark and he’s an $8 underdog to win the whole thing.
Worth a crack at the $3 on offer, and every chance to equal with the likes of Andy Brayshaw and Christian Petracca in third place if the count is a thriller.
Pretty safe bet I reckon.
Christian Petracca and his Melbourne teammate Clayton Oliver will be taking votes of each other, especially early in the season.
If last year’s Norm Smith Medalist doesn’t get in the top 5 for Brownlow votes then the umpires clearly don’t like him or know nothing about football or both.
The $1.45 for a top 5 finish is better than bank interest.
Think back to round 10, Carlton is set to finish in the top four and play Melbourne who would go on to win back-to-back premierships in an undefeated season.
That’s what we were all thinking at the time.
Melbourne was on fire and Clayton Oliver was on fire, in fact, our man Alastair Lynch dubbed him “the greatest Demon of all time” on the Neds AFL Punting Podcast.
In the first quarter of the season, Oliver was gaining 29+ disposals in nine out of 10 of the Demons’ wins and will poll votes in just about every one of those games.
There are at least four games for where we will hear the phrase “Melbourne C Oliver 3 Votes” in Round 3 v Essendon (38 disposals), Round 6 v Richmond (won the best on ground in the Anzac eve game) and Round 10 v North Melbourne (45 disposals)
Patrick Cripps is the favourite to be leading after Round 10, but Clayton Oliver along with the Dees early dominance should have him close to the 20 vote mark early on in the count.
“Carlton P Cripps 3 Votes”
Expect to hear that a fair bit during the night.
Cripps was in beast mode, particularly early in the season when the Blues were up and about.
What’s also a good indication is that the AFL Coaches Association votes named the Blues skipper best on the ground more than any other player this season, perhaps the umpires might think alike.
He’s every chance to share the medal with Lachie Neale and is as good a bet as you can make in this market.
While the Richmond forward missed a month of footy, he managed 18 home and away games during the season with some stellar efforts for where the two-time premiership player should gain Brownlow votes.
Lynch achieved three career-best efforts in three different categories this season.
14 marks in the Tigers 109 point flogging of West Coast in Round 7, 25 disposals against the Magpies in Round 8 and kicked a big bag of eight goals against the Hawks in round 22.
Frequently named as one of the best for Richmond, the number 19 for the Tigers should poll a few votes to get him into the top 20.