2021 Brownlow Medal Tips & Preview

It’s footy’s night of nights this Sunday and the question remains, just who will take Charlie home?

The 2021 offering of the Brownlow Medal sees one of the most competitive fields we’ve had in years, which makes things very interesting from a punter’s perspective.

There’s a heap of different, unique, and top-value Brownlow markets available, but I’ve done my homework and come up with six of my best bets ahead of the count.

So let’s not muck around, let’s rip into the 2021 Brownlow Medal tips and preview.

Brownlow Medal Winner
Tie @ $4

At the time of publishing this preview, both Port Adelaide’s Ollie Wines and Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver were equal $3.25 favorites to win the medal.

The 2021 Brownlow market is as competitive as we have seen in years, with Bulldogs champion Marcus Bontempelli on the second line of betting at $4 and Saint Jack Steele the third favorite at $6.

While I cannot see an outsider coming from anywhere to take the medal, the race for votes towards the later part of the season could lead to one of the best counts that Gillion McLachlan has ever announced.

What I can see, however, is a tied result for the first time since Trent Cotchin and Sam Mitchell drew with 26 votes each back in 2012*

(*Yes, Bombers fans we are aware of the Jobe Watson situation, but the record books suggest otherwise)

The likes of Wines, Oliver, Bontempelli, Steele, and even Christian Petracca will be racking up the votes and all roads point to a dual or even triple Brownlow Medalists at the end of Sunday nights count.

Since the old countback system was scrapped back in 1980, we’ve seen dual/triple Brownlow medalists six times – 1981, 1986, 1987, 1996, 2003 (triple), and 2012.

I reckon we’re going to see the seventh tied Brownlow in 2021 and simply cannot commit to an outright winner, which is why I’ll back the tie at the $4 on offer.

TOP 5
Touk Miller (Gold Coast Suns) @ $2.40

Had he not been suspended during the season, the Gold Coast midfielder would be in the conversation as a potential rough chance to actually win the medal.

It was a standout season for Miller who developed a reputation as one of the most consistent midfielders in the AFL, and don’t even bother looking at the top vote-getter for the Gold Coast Suns, given he’s at $1.01

Any player that finishes the season with 16 straight games of 30 disposals or more will always gather the attention of the umpires who hand out the votes.

With the Suns managing a few late-season wins, the phrase “Gold Coast T-Miller 3 Votes” is likely to be heard late in the count, bumping Miller up the list.

He’s gotta be a chance.

TOP 20
Dustin Martin (Richmond) @ $3.50

Dusty won’t be in the favorites for the medal, but there were at least four games this year when Martin was clearly the best on ground which should see him lead the votes for the Tigers.

Even though Richmond didn’t make finals this year after an epic five-year period of dominance, Dustin Martin was still very much amongst it, and a fair few of the Tigers’ losses were close encounters.

While he may have only played 16 games this season, there are at least four 3 vote games for Dusty and maybe the odd 1 here and there which should see the 2017 winner sneak into the top 20 by the end of the night.

LEADER AFTER ROUND 5
Taylor Walker (Adelaide) @ $2.75

Cast your mind back to the early part of the season, with the young Crows enjoying a flurry of upset wins with the new stand the mark rule being very much to the benefit of Taylor Walker who experienced quite the purple patch of form.

It was fun to watch at the time.

The rest of the season and then some can be forgotten but given this is purely a market focused on who’s leading after Round 5 – Taylor Walker is very much likely to be on top of the board before the first ad break.

LEADER AFTER ROUND 10
Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) @ $3

By Round 10, the Western Bulldogs are top of the ladder equal on points with Melbourne but have a healthy percentage buffer after having beaten St Kilda by 111 points.

Jack Macrae will probably get the 3 votes for the game, given his 41 disposals that night, but the Bont got 26 touches and four goals, along with the fact he was in beast mode to begin the year.

Most 3 Vote Games
Marcus Bontempelli (WBL) @ $2.25

Think big time, think big games, think the Bont.

In just about every big game involving the Bulldogs this season, Marcus Bontempelli was the standout on the ground.

Get used to Gill calling out “Western Bulldogs M. Bontempelli – 3 Votes”

While I’m confident we’re due for a tied Brownlow this season, I reckon the Bont will get plenty of 3 Vote games next to his name.