NFL Week 5 Tips & Preview

After one of the most bizarre weeks in NFL history with positive COVID tests, postponements and plenty of points we’re gearing up for Week 5 now!

It’s a primetime fill up this week with three great games in the late morning window (AEDT) starting with the Bears and Buccaneers this Friday.

The Vikings are off the mark and head to Seattle to try and outscore Russell Wilson on Monday before the week closes out in New Orleans as the Chargers come to town.

Read on to see our Week 5 NFL Tips.

Chicago Bears v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
SGM: Tampa Bay to Win & Tom Brady Anytime TD Scorer @ $11.68

The stakes (and teams) are slightly different than the last time Tom Brady and Nick Foles faced off but we will no doubt be reminded ad nauseum about that game in Minnesota three seasons ago.

There is no market for it but whatever the hypothetical line on the number of times we see the Philly Special replay from Super Bowl LII is, take the over because that’s probably the most interesting storyline going for this one.

Chicago is coming off its first loss of the season and Tampa is on a three game win streak with Brady really starting to click with his receivers, especially his new Troy Brown/Wes Welker/Julian Edelman in Scotty Miller.

As funny as it would be for Foles to outduel Brady again, the Bears just haven’t got the firepower to match Tampa so I’ll back the visitors to win.

I’ll also take Brady to score a touchdown since Bruce Arians is exactly the sort of coach to call the Philly Special play and give Brady a TD catch of his own after which I can only assume he will flip the bird towards Foles and go “see I can catch it!”

Houston Texans v Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston to Cover -6 @ $1.94

The winless Texans have had an awful start to the season (hence why they are winless) but the schedule has finally delivered them a break with the Jaguars coming to town.

With interim coach Romeo Crennell running the show Houston is not short on experience and this is the perfect opportunity for them to get things back on track.

They have won their last four against the Jaguars and the visitors are coming off a pair of uninspiring losses to Miami and Cincinnati.

Whatever Minshew magic they had going for them in the first part of the season is well and truly gone and the Jags should be the perfect remedy for the Texans to get something going here.

Baltimore Ravens v Cincinnati Bengals
SGM: Baltimore to Win, Mark Ingram & Joe Mixon Anytime TD Scorers

It was a fait accompli for the Ravens returning to the winners circle against Washington last week and the market looks to have the head to head and line prices nailed on against the Bengals.

We have seen improvement from the visitors in the last couple of weeks including their first win of the season getting home over Jacksonville but the Ravens is a massive step up in quality.

For the value here I’ll team a Ravens win with a pair of touchdown scorers in a SGM.

Mark Ingram is seeing a reduced workload this season only getting 39 touches through four games but is still the lead back in name at least and I’ll combine him with the Bengals most dangerous outlet Joe Mixon to find the end zone.

Washington Football Team v Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams to Win & Under 45 Points @ $2.40

Washington might not be a good team but at least they aren’t a side that will just roll over and give up most weeks.

Unfortunately for them, a plucky attitude will only get them so far and the Rams are a much better side than they are.

LA has a habit of playing down to the competition however so this could be another low scoring affair.

We backed the Rams and unders with great success last week and will follow that play again.

Kansas City Chiefs v Las Vegas Raiders
Chiefs to Win & Over 55.5 Points @ $2.15

After an initial scare it seems like this game is going to be able to go ahead as scheduled with the Chiefs on a short week hosting the Raiders.

Kansas City is off to a 4-0 start for the fourth consecutive season and after a real scare against New England on Tuesday they get set for a divisional clash with the 2-2 Raiders.

This rivalry has been dominated by the Chiefs with the last five going their way and 10 of the last 11 being won by the Chiefs.

We should be in for plenty of points as well considering with Patrick Mahomes running the show the Chiefs have put up 40, 35, 28 and 40 on the Raiders who have their own strong offensive run going.

Even with the high points total I can easily see both teams scoring 30 with the Chiefs pulling away late.

Pittsburgh Steelers v Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh to Win & Over 44.5 @ $2.45

It’s the battle of Pennsylvania and after getting their first win of the season the Eagles will have a tough task to make it two from two against the Steelers.

Things haven’t exactly been smooth in Pittsburgh either though with the Steelers forced into an early bye week after their game with the Titans was postponed to later this month.

Now they have a chance to return to normal this week as they try and extend their perfect start to the season.

When they did get to play the Steelers were really impressive and it’s hard to see anything other than a Pittsburgh victory.

best bet
Atlanta Falcons v Carolina Panthers
Carolina to Win @ $2.02

Welcome to the easiest game of the week to pick, Atlanta is an absolute shambles and has to be backed against any time they are favoured (unless it’s against the Giants or Jets).

They were kept at arms length by Green Bay and now have to face a Carolina side that didn’t get the memo that they were supposed to be tanking this season.

Matt Rhule might not have the most talented team but he is maximising what he has at his disposal and they should be able to get by the Falcons.

New York Jets v Arizona Cardinals
SGM: Cardinals to Win & Kyler Murray Anytime TD Scorer

Tipping the Cardinals should be the easiest play of the weekend but there’s not a whole lot of value in that with the visitors favoured by around a touchdown.

Every but of Arizona’s success comes from Kyler Murray with the second year quarterback throwing for six touchdowns and rushing for another four already this season.

The only way the Jets are going to have a chance is by slowing him down but this is a unit that gave up 37 points to Denver’s third string quarterback.

San Francisco 49ers v Miami Dolphins
Dolphins to Cover +9 @ $1.91

The market must be very confident that Jimmy Garoppolo is coming back for this game to have the 49ers as such heavy favourites.

As we saw last week though, the pile up of injuries across the entire 49ers roster might have reached a tipping point though with the side left to shoot blanks against a fired up Eagles team.

Miami isn’t what you would call a strong team but they can compete and ran with Seattle last week.

At anything over a touchdown I’m happy to back Miami, especially given they have the backdoor cover specialist in Ryan Fitzpatrick slinging the ball around.

Cleveland Browns v Indianapolis Colts
Colts to Win & Under 46 Points @ $3.40

We have just been able to get our heads around the possibility that the Colts might be good, and now comes the time to start considering the possibility that the Browns are pretty good as well.

Losing Nick Chubb is a big blow to a team whose success is predicated on a strong stable of running backs and taking on one of the best defences in the league in just about every important category.

I’m expecting a fair few moments where the Browns just try and bang through the Colts brick wall followed by Baker Mayfield making some bad decision that backfires in the worst imaginable way.

Dallas Cowboys v New York Giants
Dallas -9.5 & Over 54.5 @ $3.60

It’s the matchup the NFL head office and TV networks love but the one fans cannot believe still gets featured billing every season.

We are a long way removed from Tony Romo and Eli Manning outduelling each other for over 70 points in 2007 that’s for sure.

On the plus side, Dallas can still score plenty of points and the Giants don’t have the personnel to slow them down.

To reach the over the Cowboys might have to do the bulk of the scoring themselves but 40 is not out of the question by any means and their defence just gave up almost 50 to the Browns.

Seattle Seahawks v Minnesota Vikings
SGM: Seattle to Win, Over 57 Points, D.K. Metcalf Anytime TD

Seattle is easily the most exciting team in the NFL at the moment thanks in large part to an offence that’s clicking and a horrendously bad defence that can’t seem to stop a high school team.

It’s why the highest points total of the season is not scaring me off backing the over, if the Vikings offence produces the way it did in Houston we should be in for a game that finishes with at least 70 points.

D.K Metcalf might not be bringing in a whole lot of catches but with three touchdowns through four games, he’s a favourite of Russell Wilson and should be a popular target here.

At this point though it’s just too tough to back against Russell Wilson, his bubble will burst at some stage & I’m happy to go down with his ship.

New England Patriots v Denver Broncos

For the second week in a row the Patriots have seen their game postponed due to a COVID scare, this time it is reigning defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore.

Until we know who will actually be taking to the field for both teams (injuries and COVID scares have this off the board at the time of writing) it’s hard to make a pick with any confidence.

Under normal circumstances I’d be looking at the Pats to cover a line of around -7 and taking the under as long as the total points number is somewhere in the 40’s.

But with so many players statuses still very much up in the air I’ll steer clear of this one.

New Orleans Saints v Los Angeles Chargers
Saints -8.5 & Over 50.5 @ $3.60

Even with all of the postponements this week, one thing remains certain, the Drew Brees Bowl on Monday Night Football should be an excellent contest.

Both teams are more than capable of putting up plenty of points with their variety of weapons and if history is anything to go by we should see plenty of points put up.

Since making the move to the Bayou from the then San Diego Chargers, Drew Brees has won all three of his starts against his former team, putting up over 30 points in every game and he has had to be on the money every time.

His defence has given up 32, 24 and 34 points in those games and with rookie Justin Herbert installed as the full time starter, the Saints defence could be in for a long afternoon based on the promise the youngster has shown.

Tennessee Titans v Buffalo Bills

As it stands this match has been postponed for Wednesday morning (AEDT) but only if the Titans COVID outbreak has been miraculously contained.

If this game is played I’ll back the Bills to win, it’s time to start treating them like something other than the dumpster fire they have been for most of the 2000’s.

But for the time being I’m going to stay out of it just because of the uncertainty surrounding the clash.