Those not afraid to think outside the box likely enjoyed a big week on the punt as Round 4 coughed up a handful of upsets.
GWS, St Kilda and Carlton all came through as the underdog, while a few surprises in the form of Charlie Dixon, Dusty Martin and Sam Docherty caught plenty off guard in the Player Performance markets.
The bookies have filled us in on the important numbers and trends, so if you’re looking for an edge heading into Round 5, make sure to read this week’s edition of The Snapshot below.
Power Rankings
Performance of the Week
Hard to go past the ladder leaders right now, or more specifically, Charlie Dixon.
Port continue to cruise on the Gold Coast after defeating West Coast by 48 on Saturday, while punters lined their pockets in more ways than one thanks to the powerful key forward.
Dixon was paying $4.75 for Most Goals and a whopping $23 to kick 5+, a result that leaves him firmly in the driver’s seat for the Coleman Medal.
He also came through at $9.50 in our First Goal Kicker market, before throwing his name in the hat for Mark of the Year with this outstanding hanger.
Punter’s Pals
- Don’t ever be afraid to back Tom Papley. Following Thursday night’s four-goal performance, the big man has now kicked 2+ goals in seven of Sydney’s last eight matches. Not a bad a little fill-up for those that backed him in our ‘Most Goals’ market @ $4.00.
- Bit of a quirky one here, but Toby Greene has been absolute money in night games at GIANTS Stadium. Following Friday’s three-goal game against Collingwood, the little genius has now kicked 2+ goals in each of his last five night matches at home.
- Pull the trigger on the next underdog to play at Marvel. After St Kilda’s resounding win over the Tigers on Saturday (paying $2.75), the underdog has now covered the line in each of the last seven games.
- So the Under might be the play between Collingwood and Essendon on Friday. Following the Bombers’ narrow loss to the Blues last week, the Total has now gone Under in each of their last eight games at the MCG.
- One to write down for later, but the Suns have now covered the line in each of their last four matches against Fremantle.
- Steer clear of the Crows at the line. Following Saturday’s thumping against the Lions at the Gabba, Adelaide has now failed to cover in nine of their last 10 games.
- We’ll touch on Lachie Neale again shortly, but boy does he enjoy playing the Crows. The Brownlow favourite has now recorded 31 disposals or more in each of his last five games against Adelaide – a handy trend if you backed him @ $2.25 to have 30 or more on Sunday. Bad luck if you had him to kick a goal, though.
- Can you believe Chad Wingard now sits fifth in the Coleman Medal race? He’s also been kind to punter’s recently, especially if you backed him to kick 2+ goals ($2.30) on Sunday against North. For those keeping counts, Wingard has now kicked two goals or more in four of his last five games against the Roos.
If You’re Not First, You’re Last
Hugh McCluggage not only got our Lions off to a fast start on Saturday, but he also kicked things off for punter’s paying $19.00 as the First Goal Kicker.
The book suffered two losses on First Goal Kickers last week – the first being Charlie Dixon on Saturday against West Coast, and the second being Alex Sexton against Fremantle.
The book did come out big winners on Jeremy Cameron however, a name everyone seemingly forgot following a couple of quiet games since the restart.
The reigning Coleman Medalist got the Giants on the board first paying $7.00 – although it was a 15-minute wait in what turned out to be a low-scoring first quarter.
Last but not least, Levi Casboult.
For whatever reason, the Blues big man loves playing night games, because he’s now kicked two goals or more – including this beautiful banana – in five of his last six.
If you backed him @ $12.00 on Saturday against the Dons, you probably walked away a happy customer.
The Baggage Area
Charlie Dixon and Tom Papley were the standouts in Round 4, but we have to give some love to Chad Wingard for his three-goal performance against North Melbourne.
After some ups and downs in his first year with the Hawks, Wingard suddenly looks to be the most dangerous player in the Hawthorn forward line.
He was paying $9.00 for Most Goals on Sunday and he might be worth a look again this week with 15 goals to his name in 10 matches against GWS.
Also worth a mention is Dan Butler, who carved his former Richmond teammates apart on Saturday with three goals paying $6.00.
Butler was traded from Richmond to St Kilda at the end of last season for basically nothing, so his big day out had to rub further salt into the wound of Damien Hardwick.
Disposal Demons
Scott Pendlebury has been absolute money in Disposal markets this year.
He might be a long shot for the Brownlow, but you can’t complain with this 26 disposal effort (paying $2.50) during Friday’s losing effort against the Giants.
Also no complaints with Sam Docherty, who was enormous on Saturday against Essendon clocking 30+ disposals for the 16th time in his career.
The Blues defender was perhaps a touch overs in the market paying $4.00 to have 30 disposals, a good investment for those brave enough. The performance looks even more brilliant when you consider no Essendon player managed over 20.
As we touched on earlier, our very own Lachie Neale was again the standout of the round racking up 32 disposals in the Lions’ win over the Crows.
The superstar midfielder was paying $2.25 to have 30 Disposals, while he’s also received a tidy trim in Brownlow betting firming from $7.00 into $4.00 favouritism.
Other notables include Jack Billings, who had 25 for the Saints, and Shaun Higgins, who clocked 30 against Hawthorn paying $5.00.
Mr Irrelevant
He’s a superstar of our game, but it’s time to throw Dusty under the bus.
Richmond was favoured heavily on Saturday with the gun midfielder returning from a rib injury, but unless you had a magnifying glass, he was hard to spot.
Dusty finished with only 19 disposals and a tackle in the end, a rough result for those that backed him to have 20 Disposals ($1.47) or to kick a goal at Anytime ($1.40).
To be fair, Dusty has been a little off his game since the season restarted, but he might have a chance to bounce-back this week against an equally ordinary-looking West Coast outfit.
One for the Blackbook
North Melbourne looked done and dusted at three-quarter time on Sunday before they came to life late in the fourth term to put a real scare into the Hawks.
There’s no denying Hawthorn’s defenders took their foot off the gas, but a big reason for the Roos’ fightback was 20-year-old forward Curtis Taylor.
The youngster took two big pack marks and kicked a crucial goal late in the fourth time – a welcome sign after Ben Brown went missing early on.
Taylor was paying $2.30 as an Anytime Goal Kicker and is already showing us why the Roos traded up in the 2018 draft to select him. He’s a big name to watch going forward.
Like a Librarian
There were a few big tackles on Saturday, but it’s tough to go past Ben Long running down Tom Lynch from behind.
Long finished with seven tackles to his name, one shy of tying a career-high.
Specky Magee
One word: Chaz.
Bad Beats
- Rough old day for Crows supporters, in more ways than one. Adelaide lost to the Lions by 37-points, falling half a point shy of covering the +36.5 line set at the bounce!
From Outside Fitty, and Beyond
Jeremy Cameron enjoyed a nice little bounce-back on Friday night against Collingwood, capping things off with this beautiful shot between the sticks from outside 50.
In terms of the game, this goal completely swung momentum in GWS’ favour, while it likely helped a few people in their multi’s with Jezza paying $1.15 to kick a goal at Anytime.
Don’t Tell the Misso
- You’ve got to risk it for the biscuit, but $120k on Collingwood @ $1.85? Just asking for trouble.
Bloody Good Bets
- Sometimes we tip winners, and (hopefully) you back them.