For the first time in what feels like an eternity, the NFL Playoffs field is wide open with just about every team having a legitimate shot to reach the Super Bowl.
While four of the five favourites have this weekend off, Wild Card Weekend has the potential to go off with some huge storylines set to unfold.
Houston and Buffalo get things underway Sunday morning (AEDT) and Monday’s rematch of the Minneapolis Miracle is well worth getting up for.
Of course there is no bigger story than the New England Patriots playing on Wild Card Weekend for the first time in a decade in what could be the final run for Tom Brady in a Patriots uniform.
Then there’s what’s left of the Eagles taking on what’s left of the Seahawks to close out the weekend.
We’ve got tips and previews for all four games right here!
Normally the first game of Wild Card weekend is considered to be the graveyard slot for the NFL, but this game has the potential to go off. Houston’s bizarre run of results in 2019 continued with another loss following back to back wins. The big question for this game is whether or not you want to back that run to continue (& therefore Houston to lose the AFC Championship) or back their recent run of playoff no-shows. Under Bill O’Brien, they have gone 1-3 including a couple of embarrassing losses at home, most recently the 21-7 loss to the Colts in this game 12 months ago.
Buffalo is back in the playoffs after ending a long drought two seasons ago and they have to like their chances of getting past the Texans here. This season they have given up 20 or more points just five times and have the defence to really cause some headaches for Deshaun Watson. When you consider the fact Houston hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard lately either, this game will probably be won by the first team to 20 points. I feel very strange backing Josh Allen to win a playoff start over Watson but quarterback and receiver are probably the only two areas Houston has a clear advantage in this game. The only way Houston wins this game is if Watson goes off and I just don’t know if he can do it against this Bills defence.
Only in New England is finishing as the AFC’s third seed with a 12-4 record considered to be a letdown but after making four of the last five Super Bowls, the bar there is pretty damn high. The thing is though, this isn’t the all-conquering Patriots team of the past. For starters the Patriots offence is a total grind this season, they are only capable of scoring 20-24 points in their current iteration and the once dominant Boogeymen defence is only giving Bill Belichick nightmares right now.
The Titans have every reason to feel like they can come into New England and spring an upset. After going to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, they have been one of the hottest offences in the league and Derrick Henry won the rushing title with a ridiculous 5.1 yards per carry average. One thing that New England’s top ranked defence has struggled with all season is stopping the run and Tannehill should be able to have some success moving the ball through the air.
Even with all of that, I have to back New England here, last week against Houston’s backups was the first time the Titans had not turned the ball over since October 6 against Buffalo. If the Patriots defence can give Brady one or two short fields, that should be enough to get them over the line. It would not be a surprise to see the Titans with the ball trying to mount a comeback late but it’s still the Patriots at home. Since it is the playoffs though, I will throw in a couple of extra bets here, I’ll take Henry and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead to score touchdowns as well
Back Rex Burkhead Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $4.00
Back Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.90
We can only hope this is the same sort of game we got last time these two met in the playoffs. If you don’t know about the Minnesota Miracle, look it up, it might go down as one of the wildest endings in recent memory. It also began the playoff tradition of wondering what new way the Saints will have a heartbreaking end their season. After last season’s no-call debacle in the NFC Championship against the Rams, you have to think Sean Payton and company are going to do everything they can to remove fate and bad luck from the equation.
Minnesota is welcoming back a refreshed and (hopefully) healthy Dalvin Cook who is one of the most dynamic running backs in the league and a worthwhile bet in the anytime touchdown scorer market. The big handbrake on the Vikings though is Kirk Cousins who struggles against good teams. Cook will keep the Vikings in it early but the Saints should be able to run away with it.
Aside from Cook to score, I also have to back Saints utility Taysom Hill, who has become a big feature in the last couple of weeks. He’s scored four times in the last five games despite being officially listed as the third string quarterback. For the main play here, I’m expecting a lot of points and think the Saints should be able to hit 30 points with the offence at their disposal but the Vikings getting a backdoor cover is enough to scare me off the line.
Back Dalvin Cook Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.10
Back Taysom Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $4.00
The main reason to tune into this game is the possibility that this could set all time records for wackiness in the NFL. Both of these teams are massively depleted with injuries, forced to call on a mixture of recently retired running backs and receivers taken straight from the aisles of a grocery shop. Because of that, I’ve only got one play for this game and it follows one simple thought process: Russell Wilson is the best player on the field and won’t let his team lose this one.
He came so close to giving the Seahawks the NFC West over the 49ers last week and I like his chances of getting Seattle over the line in Philadelphia, a place they’ve already won at this season. Throughout his career, he has gone 4-0 against the Eagles, winning by an average of 10.75 points and I just don’t think they are going to give the Eagles anywhere near as many chances off bad plays as the Giants did last week. Let’s be honest, the Seahawks got into the playoffs because they are one of the NFC’s six best teams, the Eagles got in because they were the least rubbish side in the NFC East. Because of that, I’m happy to buy a couple of extra points in the line market for a bit more value.