The Sunday slate of the Week 12 NFL season concludes in Minneapolis with an NFC North rivalry match as the Minnesota Vikings play host to the Green Bay Packers. Both sides enter this one in poor form, with the Packers losing 3 of their last 4 and the Vikings losing 2 of their last 3. With the Chicago Bears establishing a strong lead in the division, both teams will be in desperate need of a win here to keep their playoff hopes alive. Let’s take a look at our 3 best bets on the board in what is sure to be a season–defining fixture for these two rivals.
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass Monday 12:20 pm
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings enter this one with a middling 5-4-1 record after last week’s loss to the division rival Bears. QB Kirk Cousins had one of his worst performances of the season, averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt and throwing 2 interceptions, including a crucial pick-six. The rushing attack also couldn’t get anything going, with Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray generating just 17 yards on their 13 carries. Receiver Stefon Diggs was a bright spot for this offence, hauling in 13 catches for 126 yards and a score. He was capably supported by running mate Adam Thielen, who added 7 receptions for 66 yards of his own.
Defensively, the Vikings have largely been very solid this season. They’ve held their opponents to 17 points or less in 3 of their last 5, limiting the high-flying Saints to only 30 in the process. They put in another strong performance last week in Chicago, allowing just 165 passing yards from Mitchell Trubisky and forcing two interceptions. The rush defence was also very strong, holding Bears duo Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen under 4 yards per carry. With Aaron Rodgers coming to town, another strong effort will be needed here from one of the NFL’s premier defences.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers make the trip to Minnesota at an even more precarious 4-5-1, after 3 losses in their last 4 games. Head Coach Mike McCarthy’s job security has come into question after poor recent performances and it’s assumed he will go if Green Bay can’t make the playoffs. QB Aaron Rodgers has still been very good this season, going 21/30 for 332 yards and 2 touchdowns in Seattle last week. Davante Adams has emerged as one of the best receivers in the NFL, enjoying 953 yards and 9 touchdowns on the campaign so far. Aaron Jones is also an emerging option at Running Back, putting up 172 all-purpose yards against Miami a fortnight ago.
Defensively, the Packers just haven’t done enough this season. They’ve allowed at least 27 points in 5 of their last 6 games and failed to play strong complementary football with Aaron Rodgers. They struggled again in Seattle last week, allowing the Seahawks to control the game on the ground en route to 173 rushing yards on 35 carries. Russell Wilson also made some plays on their susceptible pass defence, throwing for 225 yards and 2 scores of his own. If the Packers are to keep their season alive here, this unit will need a much better performance in Minnesota.
Best Bets
Packers +4
Based on the stats so far this season, this number is set correctly in my opinion. However, the Packers season is absolutely on the line here and I expect them to come out with a strong sense of urgency. Coach Mike McCarthy is no doubt tired of having his job security questioned and will leave no stone unturned to try and bring home a win here. Aaron Rodgers is also the much better QB in this one and I expect him to outduel Kirk Cousins here.
Through the key number of 3 and pushing with the key number of 4, I think the value is very much on Green Bay here. The Vikings haven’t had any real blowout wins this season and I don’t see them reversing that trend in this situation. This number also provides several backdoor opportunities if the Packers are down by 10 or 11 late. At $2.50, I’d also recommend sprinkling some money on Green Bay pulling off the upset.
Under 47.5 Points
This total again is right around where I’d put it based on performance levels this season. However, I think this situation calls for more conservative game plans by the coaches. The Packers strong front seven matches up quite well with a struggling Vikings offensive line and I can see them stifling Kirk Cousins and Co here. Even the usually strong Packers offence has struggled of late, only eclipsing 30 points in 1 of their last 4 games.
Ultimately, this total is probably 3-4 points too high for how I see the game playing out. 47.5 is also quite a key number in the NFL as common scores such as 24-23 and 27-20 result in wins for this under bet. I’m looking for Green Bay to do a better job of establishing Aaron Jones in the running game here, controlling the clock and leading to a more low-scoring affair.
Packers Team Total Over 22
This is an effective hedge against our under 47.5 bet, yet still offers the realistic possibility of both bets cashing. The Vikings inconsistent form of late, coupled with the Packers desperation here, leads me to believe that they can pull off the upset here in a tight one. Aaron Rodgers is still the NFL’s premier Quarterback and in Davante Adams he has an outstanding #1 Receiver. If Green Bay can have some success running the ball, I see this balance as a great way to both control the game and go over this relatively low total here.
Score Prediction: Green Bay Packers 24-20 Minnesota Vikings