Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off with a matchup of two NFC powerhouses as the Los Angeles Rams host the Minnesota Vikings. The 1-1-1 Vikings enter Week 4 off of one of the biggest upsets in NFL history, being dominated by the hapless Bills at home as a 16.5-point favourite. Conversely, the 3-0 Rams enter Week 4 as the form team of the NFL, coming off of three straight comfortable victories. The Vikings have their backs against the wall here, as 1 win in 4 would represent a very poor start given their high preseason expectations.
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass Friday at 10:20am
Los Angeles Rams
Young Quarterback Jared Goff has been on fire to start the season, leading a Rams offense that has scored at least 33 points in all 3 weeks. Often criticized for being a ‘system QB’ Goff has passed for 941 yards and 6 touchdowns through 3 weeks, completing his passes at a 70% clip. Superstar Running Back Todd Gurley has also started the season strong, scoring 5 total touchdowns and averaging 125 yards from scrimmage so far this season. Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks have also proved to be an outstanding Receiver duo this season, combining for 558 yards and two touchdowns on the year.
As impressive as their offense has been this season, the Rams defence has been just as good. They’ve allowed an average of 12 points per game in three consecutive dominant defensive displays. Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers and Ndamukong Suh continue to form the NFL’s most dominant defensive line and have had a very strong start to the season. On the back end, Defensive Backs Aqib Talib, Lamarcus Joyner and Marcus Peters make for an excellent and opportunistic secondary. After a dismal display last week, the Vikings offense will have their work cut out for them here.
Minnesota Vikings
I’m still in shock at the performance the Vikings put in last week. Despite a strong first two starts, QB Kirk Cousins struggled against the Bills, averaging only 5.3 yards per attempt and turning the ball over 3 times. The running game got absolutely nothing going, totalling 14 yards on 6 carries for the afternoon. Even star Receiver Stefon Diggs was limited to only 17 yards on 4 receptions. Ultimately, I think the Vikings offense is a talented group that just put in one poor performance. Even against a strong Rams defense, I expect a better showing from this unit this week.
The Vikings defence has been solid if unspectacular to start the season. They put in a very strong performance in Week 1 against Jimmy G and the 49ers offense before being carved open by Aaron Rodgers in Week 2. It’s tough to judge a Week 3 performance where the offense put them in a lot of tough spots. Star players like Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr and Danielle Hunter form the base of a strong front seven. Moreover, Defensive Backs Harrison Smith, Andrew Sendejo and Xavier Rhodes combine for a strong secondary that will test Jared Goff and Co.
Best Bets
Vikings +7
After last week’s dismal performance, I believe that the public are starting to significantly underrate the Vikings. We have to keep in mind that this is a team that made it all the way to the NFC Championship game last season and subsequently upgraded at Quarterback. Kirk Cousins, along with RB Dalvin Cook and Receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are all very capable players that I expect to put in a performance this week.
With star Cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters likely out in this one, I predict that the Vikings will enjoy some success against the Rams vaunted pass defence. On offense, the Rams haven’t come up against a defence that is nearly as good as this Vikings one. Whilst I think that Goff, Gurley and Brandin Cooks are all stars in their own right, coming up against one of the strongest defences in the NFL will prove to be a somewhat difficult initial adjustment.
Under 49 Points
The typical Thursday Night Football Under trend has so far gone 2-1 this season. In a matchup off of a short week featuring two very strong defences, I predict that Points won’t be as free flowing this week. The Rams defence has cemented themselves as one of the NFL’s premier units so far this season. Whilst the likely loss of both Talib and Peters is a blow, I expect this Rams defensive front to put in a strong performance against a relatively weak Vikings offensive line.
Moreover, I think that the Vikings defence can enjoy some success against Jared Goff and Co. When you’ve been carving up below par defences like the Rams have so far, it can be quite a shock to come up against one of the best units in the league. For me, the Vikings definitely are that and will likely be back to their best this week. As such, I believe this points total is 6-7 points too high and there is good value on the under.
Vikings +3.5 first half
The short week comes at a good time for the Vikings as it allows them to quickly bounce back after last week’s horror show. I expect them to get off to a fast start in this one and believe that a 3.5 point half time cushion represents immense value. Given the quality in the Vikings defence, I predict that the Rams will struggle early, giving Kirk Cousins and Co the opportunity to build up an early lead.
Furthermore, Vikings Coach Mike Zimmer has emphasized the need to get out to a fast start after incurring big deficits early in both of the past two weeks. In a more optimal evening start time, I predict that the Vikings will be hungry and ready for this one. Coming off of 3 straight routine wins, I’m just not sure that the Rams can match this intensity, at least at the beginning.
Best Bet: Vikings +7
Any time you can get a team of the Vikings quality +7 points then you have to take it, especially off of a short week. I especially love the +7.5 points play if you can get it for $1.75 or better. I expect the Vikings to absolutely take it to the Rams this week and they’ll at least keep it close if they can’t pull out the victory.
Score Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 23-20 Minnesota Vikings