The true week 1 of the finals throws up a slate of four games that each have pretty obvious storylines. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are anointings and inevitable destructions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are ends and beginnings of hype trains. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Of course all of those things are expected\u2026but maybe something else could pop up and throw a big old fly in that bowl of ointment. In honour of the greatest bit in the history of stand up comedy \u2013 Louis CK\u2019s \u201cOf Course\u2026but maybe<\/a>\u201d \u2013 let\u2019s have a look at the counternarratives that could arise as we get through the weekend. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Hawthorn v Fremantle: OF COURSE the Dockers last three weeks\u00a0don\u2019t\u00a0matter because they were coasting for the finals\u2026but\u00a0maybe we\u00a0shouldn\u2019t\u00a0be surprised if what we see with our own eyes is true.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n After winning 14 games in a row between rounds two and 16, then another four straight between rounds 18 and 21, the Dockers finished the year 1-2 with losses to Melbourne and Carlton.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Those are two losses to teams at or near the peak of their runs that had or are having sincerely magical seasons. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Conventional wisdom has been that the Dockers kind of put the cue in the rack toward the end of the year because they knew they were comfortably on top of the ladder. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But what if they\u2019re slipping, especially defensively, and they showed it against two finals teams? <\/p>\n\n\n\n Alex Pearce missed the Melbourne game but played the Carlton game, while Luke Ryan and Brennan Cox both started both games, so it\u2019s not like they were without key personnel.<\/a> And yet, those games were the only two games in which the Dockers, clearly the best defence in the league this year, gave up 110 or more points. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Then consider the Hawthorn v Fremantle game in round 9. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In that game, while the Dockers won when they deployed Delta Force and tore the game away from Hawthorn, they did have some issues defending in the first half. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In particular, Jack Gunston set the model for how to beat Fremantle that\u2019s now been successfully followed by Jake Stringer, Logan Morris, and even Shannon Neale.<\/a> Sam Mitchell isolated Gunston deep and, for the first half, he tortured Luke Ryan like he was sat in front of a butter chicken in a Biggest Loser <\/em>temptation challenge. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Dockers only fixed it when they sent Brennan Cox onto Gunston and improved their pressure through midfield. Now Brennan Cox has been ruled out of the Hawthorn rematch with a calf strain he sustained during that loss to Carlton<\/a>, and the Dockers defence is showing signs of weakness against less explosive scoring teams than Hawthorn. <\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019m not saying, I\u2019m just saying. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Geelong v Carlton: OF COURSE Carlton finished 10th<\/sup>\u00a0and should lose to Geelong\u2026but\u00a0maybe they\u00a0just know how to beat the Cats.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Carlton is probably nothing more than a nice story. Geelong is an institution that tends to make prelim finals. <\/p>\n\n\n\n That\u2019s probably how it goes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But occasionally stories don\u2019t know when to end. I\u2019ve lost count of the amount of Fast and Furious <\/em>movies there\u2019s been. Those people just have no idea when it\u2019s over.<\/a> It feels like Carlton is the same way. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It feels it even more when you consider the history. Over the last five, the Blues are 4-1 against Geelong. That includes a game this year, after Fraseball started sweeping the league, where the Blues beat the Cats by four points while still getting their Fraseball eye in.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n But then think about the fact that the method Carlton plays with is exactly the method to beat Geelong. If you can control a game against Geelong, even if you\u2019re the inferior side on paper, you can beat them. The Cats gave up 100 or more marks in just four games this year and they won just one of them. That includes a round 7 loss to Port Adelaide. If you extend it to giving up 90 marks, the Cats are 2-5 including that round 12 loss to Carlton where the Blues took 94.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Fraser\u2019s Blues have taken over 100 marks in 12 of his 14 games in charge. In his tenure, the Blues have averaged 115 marks, a number that is dragged down by an outlier game against Hawthorn where they took just 57. Only Port Adelaide took more than 115 marks against Geelong this year and they beat the Cats by five goals. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The biggest problem with Spielberg is that he has no idea how or when to end a movie. Josh Fraser also might not know when his time is up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Sydney v Brisbane: OF COURSE Sydney has disgraced itself and will go out with a whimper\u2026but\u00a0maybe this\u00a0is the ultimate \u201cnobody believes in us\u201d team.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Sydney alleged criminals have clearly disgraced themselves in the lead up to this\u00a0finals\u00a0series.\u00a0Now they come up against Brisbane who seem likely to do what very mediocre UFC fighters did to Greg Hardy for a little while: destroy them as we watch\u00a0gleefully with a heavy helping of schadenfreude.<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n But can you imagine a stronger \u201cnobody believes in us\u201d case than Sydney? They\u2019re missing their three best players, their president said openly that their decision to suspend the players embroiled in the Pullman Palaver had \u201ctorpedo[ed]\u201d their season, and they\u2019re coming up against one of the two leading flag favourites. <\/p>\n\n\n\n They have no right to win this game or even be competitive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Outmanned all over the field, there\u2019s never been a better test case for the power of \u201cnobody believes in us\u201d than this game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Adelaide v Bulldogs: OF COURSE this game will be decided by the midfield superstars\u2026but maybe when one side of the field is a catastrophic\u00a0weakness\u00a0we need to think a little harder.<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n You know the faces that are going to be on the Fox Footy poster before this game, arms folded and smiling weirdly. One of them will probably handball a footy into the air and catch it in an action shot. It\u2019s going to be Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards opposite Jordan Dawson and Izak Rankine.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n To be sure, they are the four best players in the game and should be focused on, but\u00a0they\u2019re\u00a0not going to decide this game contrary to what the pre-game hype videos are going to say.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite poor defensive personnel, the Dogs willingness to flood back and defend in numbers has driven them to being\u00a0basically a\u00a0middle of the pack defence. Given their reliance on\u00a0Buku\u00a0Khamis, that is astonishing.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Essentially, they\u2019ve done it because they would rather cut the leg off a kid than have one of their key backs isolated against a key forward. But footy doesn\u2019t tend to go to plan and Adelaide has the horses to take advantage whenever they get even numbers in their forward 50. <\/p>\n\n\n\n