{"id":87891,"date":"2026-07-06T15:16:04","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T05:16:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=87891"},"modified":"2026-07-06T15:16:04","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T05:16:04","slug":"2026-state-of-origin-game-3-tips-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2026\/07\/2026-state-of-origin-game-3-tips-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 State of Origin Game 3 Tips & Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Through contentious\u00a0send-offs\u00a0and at-times baffling\u00a0teamlist\u00a0selections, the NSW Blues arrive at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night with a punchers chance at the 2026 State of Origin title.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Queensland Maroons<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
NSW Blues<\/div>\n
Wednesday 8th July 2026 8:05 PM (Suncorp Stadium)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

Through contentious\u00a0send offs\u00a0and at-times baffling\u00a0teamlist\u00a0selections, the NSW Blues arrive at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night with a punchers chance at the 2026 State of Origin title.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Teamlist\u00a0Talking Points<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I suggested on the Neds NRL Unpopular Opinions Podcast last week that Laurie Daley has named his strongest side of the series, and\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0doubling down here.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bradman Best and Stephen Crichton are big bodies in yardage and reliable defenders on either edge. Both have been here before and are proven performers at clubland and Origin, and both are named in their specialist positions for Game III.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018Critta\u2019 in particular has carried injuries throughout the 2026 regular season but comes into this week on the back of two starring games for the Bulldogs, albeit in the halves.\u00a0He\u00a0remains\u00a0the best defensive\u00a0centre\u00a0in the NRL and will play a crucial role in\u00a0containing\u00a0Kalyn Ponga down his\u00a0favoured\u00a0left edge.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other side of the field, Brian To\u2019o is an enormous omission by Daley but\u00a0there\u2019s\u00a0enough evidence in Jack Bostock\u2019s\u00a0favour\u00a0to at the very least reason with the decision.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Plenty has been made about To\u2019o\u2019s aerial deficiencies but his handling on the ground and in the ruck (five errors in two games) has contributed to some key issue areas for the\u00a0Blues\u00a0this series. In\u00a0defence, the spaces between To\u2019o and Kotoni Staggs were also spotted a few times by Kalyn Ponga on kick returns in Game I and\u00a0perhaps Daley\u00a0was looking to send a statement to his playing group by leaving the champion winger out for a decider.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Or,\u00a0perhaps it\u2019s\u00a0simply about rewarding the form of Bostock who has been undeniable since coming back from injury for Redcliffe. Currently averaging 160 run\u00a0metres\u00a0per game, NSW\u00a0don\u2019t\u00a0lose a whole lot in yardage with To\u2019o out and Bostock in, while his defensive involvements on the ground and in the air are consistently sound in clubland.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

With plenty of reps in\u00a0first-grade\u00a0on the left wing, Bostock is\u00a0a likely inclusion\u00a0for the Blues despite the man he replaces on Wednesday night.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Elsewhere, Liam Martin picks himself in a return to the Blues right edge and will relish the job asked of Haumole Olakau\u2019atu and Dylan Lucas in Games I & 2. Expect Martin to lead the kick chase and line speed all night, crowding Selwyn Cobbo on kick returns and harassing Cameron Munster or Ponga anytime QLD look left.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In a game filled with highlight reel players and moments, the work of Martin might just end up being the difference for NSW in this one.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As per usual, QLD Coach Billy Slater\u00a0hasn\u2019t\u00a0thrown too many curveballs with his selections for Game III.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeremiah Nanai made a compelling return from injury two weeks ago and has played himself back into a Maroons jersey here. His\u00a0gamebreaking\u00a0ability alongside Reece Walsh on QLD\u2019s extended bench is just another luxury at Slater\u2019s disposal should the Maroons need points in the back end.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Also on the bench, not enough has been made of Lindsay Collins\u2019 absence; ruled out under HIA protocols to leave an enormous hole in this QLD forward rotation. Pat Carrigan is in elite company as one of the best middle forwards in the game but\u00a0there\u2019s\u00a0a lot of pressure on him to match the productivity of Collins – on both sides of the ball – without any recent game time under his belt.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Knowing Carrigan, this could all be set up for an unlikely Man of the Match performance off the bench. On paper though, Collins\u2019s absence is a factor NSW can take advantage of once fatigue sets in around the ruck.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Deciding Factors – NSW Blues<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the more telling signs in the makeup of NSW\u2019s bench is the inclusion of only one genuine middle (Addin Fonua-Blake). While\u00a0there\u2019s\u00a0some merit to the idea of Haumole Olakau\u2019atu or Liam Martin spotting up in the middle if\u00a0required, the selections suggest to me that we may finally see Cameron Murray start at lock and Payne Haas play out big minutes at prop.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The combination of Murray\u2019s\u00a0legspeed\u00a0and\u00a0Haas\u2019\u00a0ability to bend the line is nightmare fuel for QLD defenders.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If Murray can get between defenders and promote a quick play-the-ball in yardage, Haas will be allowed to get over the advantage line and run amok at a retreating\u00a0defence. That one-two punch can be the trigger for a NSW shot on the edges, particularly if Murray is there to back it up at pivot while Nathan Cleary and Mitch Moses play a little wider in the\u00a0second-layer.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Too often in Games I & II we saw Isaah Yeo or Cleary drop a settler back towards the ruck after a\u00a0halfbreak, playing to a point instead of playing shot-for-shot.\u00a0Perhaps James\u00a0Tedesco\u2019s tendency to play\u00a0predominantly through\u00a0the middle-third was a factor there, too.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Regardless, Murray\u2019s speed and width of pass from\u00a0first-receiver\u00a0can be a point of difference for\u00a0a\u00a0NSW attack looking to ask a few more questions on the edges in the decider.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If so, any Blues attacking action will\u00a0likely start\u00a0with a positive yardage involvement from Murray and\/or Haas, a few tackles earlier.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Deciding Factors – QLD Maroons<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The productivity of Selwyn Cobbo on kick returns has had an undeniable flow-on effect\u00a0to\u00a0QLD\u2019s yardage game so far this series. He has consistently bent the line or generated ruck speed early in sets but will come up against a new-look and purpose-built NSW right edge defensive unit on Wednesday night.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If history is any indicator, Billy Slater will have a plan to combat NSW\u2019s adjustments and get the most out of his back five in exit sets.\u00a0Perhaps we\u00a0see QLD shift the ball a little more often on kick returns to force the Blues line to travel and test their kick chase on the far side?<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Assuming Slater\u2019s Maroons\u00a0<\/span>do\u00a0<\/span><\/i>carry\u00a0out of\u00a0their own end cleanly, the stage is set for Sam Walker to cap off a stellar Origin Series debut alongside a star-studded, running spine.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The on-the-ball threats of Harry Grant, Cameron Munster and\u00a0Ponga\u00a0have created the perfect storm for Walker to pick his moments, play to his strengths and execute; try involvements for Trent Loiero and Cobbo (with\u00a0<\/span>that<\/span><\/i>\u00a0scrum play) in Game II are good examples.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Walker\u2019s kicking game in particular has been a strength of QLD\u2019s attack this series, mainly along the ground for Robert Toia or\u00a0Hamiso\u00a0Tabuai-Fidow in good-ball.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

With the inclusion of Jeremiah Nani on Wednesday\u00a0night though, we should expect to see Walker send a few more sky-ward\u00a0on fifth tackle (or\u00a0maybe earlier). NSW\u2019s tall winger approach lends itself to this theory; QLD\u00a0don\u2019t\u00a0have the vertical advantage on the wings this week but have had success in the past kicking for backrowers jumping over defending halves\u2026<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Prediction<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While every analytical bone in my body says QLD will win this one comfortably, rugby league is a funny game\u2026<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Laurie Daley\u00a0hasn\u2019t\u00a0seemed fazed by any of the criticism throughout his tenure as NSW Head\u00a0Coach\u00a0but some of his comments leading into this game suggested otherwise.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Can the Blues hope for a fairy tale\u00a0finish\u00a0for one of their\u00a0favourite\u00a0sons?\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0happy to take the value in a close one but certainly\u00a0won\u2019t\u00a0be surprised if the Maroons close out the series on home soil.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Prediction:<\/strong> New South Wales Blues 1-12, Mark Nawaqanitawase Anytime Try Scorer<\/p>\n

Man of the Match:<\/strong>Payne Haas $15, Cam Murray $36<\/p>\n

Wally Lewis\u00a0Medallist:<\/strong>Nathan Cleary $4, Selwyn Cobbo $5.50, Harry Grant $23<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Through contentious\u00a0send-offs\u00a0and at-times baffling\u00a0teamlist\u00a0selections, the NSW Blues arrive at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night with a punchers chance at the 2026 State of Origin title.\u00a0\u00a0 Queensland Maroons vs NSW Blues Wednesday 8th July 2026 8:05 PM (Suncorp Stadium) Through contentious\u00a0send offs\u00a0and at-times baffling\u00a0teamlist\u00a0selections, the NSW Blues arrive at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night with a punchers chance at the 2026 State of Origin title.\u00a0\u00a0 Teamlist\u00a0Talking Points\u00a0 I suggested on the Neds NRL Unpopular Opinions Podcast last week that Laurie Daley has named his strongest side of the series, and\u00a0I\u2019m\u00a0doubling down here.\u00a0 Bradman Best and Stephen Crichton are big bodies in…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":87892,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[1400],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-87891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rugby-league","tag-nrl-tips"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"06\/07\/2026","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/34"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87891"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87891\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87893,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87891\/revisions\/87893"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87891"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=87891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}