As I\u2019m writing this in Melbourne, it\u2019s bloody cold. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Over the last five weeks, the AFL is scoring three fewer points per team per game than across the whole season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even with a couple of bangers last weekend,<\/a> we\u2019re officially in the dog days of the season, and a few of the teams that we expected to be good or goodish heading into the season are in a rut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Everyone reading this, and the fella writing it, have all been in ruts before – whether they be personal or in relationships. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Sometimes, the rut is terminal to the relationship. Other times, your partner just needs to dress up like a cop and you need to get arrested for being a very bad boy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n There are four teams that we expected to be pretty good that are either currently in ruts or just starting to work their way out of them: Collingwood, Brisbane, Hawthorn, and Geelong. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Which of them, if any, are terminal? <\/p>\n\n\n\n Before we get into it, I just want to note that you could include Gold Coast on that list as well but I wrote about them earlier this week so they\u2019re exempt.<\/a> If I had to place them somewhere, I\u2019d put them in the girls trip category where they could go either way. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI really need a massage Mr Masseuse. Can you fit me in?\u201d <\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Of the good teams in ruts that I listed, Geelong is the one that just needs to spice it up a bit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Cats have lost their last two games to a Josh Fraser-led resurgent Blues and a Jordan Dawson inspired Crows by a total of five points. That\u2019s not really the concern.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n The concern is that over the last two weeks, they\u2019ve scored fewer than 100 points in consecutive weeks for the first time this season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Against Adelaide, a big part of the issue was their persistence with Jeremy Cameron despite the fact that he did not appear to be able to grip the ball leading to the fifth worst game of his career by player rating.<\/a> Against the Blues, on the other hand, the issue was more the lack of production from Dangerfield and Neale. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In general, Geelong looks a little lanky forward of centre and when Cameron can\u2019t be the kind of hybrid key forward\/forward flanker, their forward line doesn\u2019t work. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But, even in both of their losses, they still generated 14 shots each off turnover and at least 12 from the forward half. They were also still in the forward half for about half of the game in each hit out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n That tells me that their structure gets them the wins they want, but they\u2019re struggling to put finishing touches on those wins. As Dangerfield gets fitter<\/a>, and as Cameron\u2019s hand continues to mend, combined with their continued front half excellence and their still dominant running game, Geelong is still in good shape overall. <\/p>\n\n\n\n If they can find a way to add some extra spice, maybe using Ollie Dempsey as a genuine key forward or trying Ollie Wiltshire or Jack Martin through the middle occasionally it might help. <\/p>\n\n\n\n So yes, they\u2019re in a bit of a rut. But it\u2019s easy to see them climbing out of it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Receiving a \u201cbook us into a nice dinner\u201d after a two-week fight text<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n After three straight losses, one of which included copping the greatest third quarter in AFL history against GWS,<\/a> Brisbane is back on the winners list. <\/p>\n\n\n\n A team like GWS was always going to be hard for Brisbane to play because, this season, they have been abominable at stopping ball movement and the Giants only want to kick ball movement goals. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Heading into the game against Gold Coast, they were 17th<\/sup> at stopping the ball going from D50 to a score. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But it just didn\u2019t feel like that could possibly persist all season long. It was like those fights you have with your partner where one day, even if it\u2019s not fully resolved, it\u2019s at least over for now. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Against Gold Coast, that run was over. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Lions finally cranked up their pressure game and their behind the ball structure, aided by a healthier looking Harris Andrews, and kept the ball in their front half for about 57% of the game.<\/a> They also held the Suns to their second worst game for the year at taking the ball from D50 to F50. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Crucially as well, the Lions were +15 in tackles while pretty much breaking even in disposals. Saturday showed a Lions team that got a rocket put under them after sleeping on the couch for a while and is ready to be better. The question is whether it lasts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Offence hasn\u2019t been a problem all season for Brisbane, and if they can get the other side of their game going, their rut will be a thing of the past. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cI\u2019m going on a trip. You\u2019re not coming.\u201d<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Hoo boy are we teetering! <\/p>\n\n\n\n The trip can go one of two ways. Either they remember how much they love you, or they remember how much they don\u2019t. That\u2019s where I feel Hawthorn is right now. <\/p>\n\n\n\n After having lost three of their last five, including their most recent loss to an ailing Western Bulldogs where they started talking like premiers at half time,<\/a> the Hawks look in a bit of trouble. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It seems to me that they basically look average forward of centre when Jack Gunston doesn\u2019t play and look great when he does.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Similarly, while James Sicily is having a resurgent year, this back line goes with Tom Barrass. When he plays, they\u2019re good back there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n When he doesn\u2019t, they aren\u2019t. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Given their still strong ground ball, ball movement, and time in forward half numbers I\u2019d typically not be concerned about the Hawks, especially given Will Day has given them some much needed burst from midfield.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n But it seems to me that the Hawks can have all the great underlying metrics they want. Their problem is that they have two key structural pieces that they need to be fit and firing to be true contenders. And both are currently injured and over 30. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Both Gunston and Barrass are on trips, and what they\u2019ll be like when they return is uncertain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe need to talk\u201d text received at 10:17pm on a Thursday night, coming from the bedroom while you\u2019re asleep on the couch<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s over. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Wrap it up. Start looking for lawyers. We\u2019re heading for a divorce. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Collingwood isn\u2019t in a rut, they\u2019re at the bottom of a river. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Collingwood couldn\u2019t score before Jamie Elliott got injured<\/a>, but without him it feels like it\u2019s going to get worse. While the Bulldogs game was a Jordan Belfort and Naomi style one last time before a divorce, <\/a>the way the Pies played against Melbourne feels much more like the reality. They scored just 35% of the time they went inside 50 on their way to a meagre 75 points. <\/p>\n\n\n\n