Do you have a seat at the Table? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
What table? It\u2019s like the High Table in John Wick<\/em><\/a>. All of the most powerful teams in the AFL are on this table together, as equals and as competitors. Among them, they\u2019ll decide who gets to win the premiership. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But what is it? <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Table is a group of six teams that can win the premiership. That\u2019s it. Only six. I will check in on the Table at about the \u00be mark of the season and then on the eve of the finals and, if all goes well, one of the teams on the Table will win the premiership. <\/p>\n\n\n\n You can only have six teams with a seat at the Table at any given time, so if I want to put a team on, I have to take someone off. The catch is, if I take someone off, they can\u2019t be put back on the table. <\/p>\n\n\n\n There\u2019s no getting back together with an ex here. This is not the game for Ben Affleck.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n As we head toward the bye rounds with everyone having played eleven rounds, it\u2019s time for the first look at who has a seat at the Table and who is on the cusp for next time. These are not in any order, nor are they tiered. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Imagine if on the High Table the Russian mob put themselves on top of the Camorra. Nightmare for them, and it\u2019d be a nightmare for me to do the same. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Even with Charlie Curnow playing poorly, and even after getting demolished by Geelong, it would be impossible to not have Sydney on the Table.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Even without Errol Gulden, who is expected back in another 6-8 weeks, they\u2019re leading footy in virtually every with ball stat and are defining a new meta in how to play with their explosive and aggressive forward handball game.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n The way they\u2019re playing with the ball would have looked like witchcraft like five years ago, as they\u2019re currently gaining 702 metres per game by handball. They\u2019ve averaged closer to 800 over the last five games. For reference, in 2021 Richmond led the league in that stat with about 400. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Swans are currently trying to invent the Fosbury Flop and it\u2019s working. <\/p>\n\n\n\n While they don\u2019t have any winners behind the ball and really get by defensively on pressure, that\u2019s a reasonable way to live when you score as heavily as they do. No doubt, they\u2019re on the table. <\/p>\n\n\n\n This is, in my view, the very best list in the AFL. Unlike Sydney, they have winners across every line and also a game defining key forward in Josh Treacy.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n While they\u2019re big on wharfie time, the Dockers aren\u2019t really wharfies. They\u2019re more like an aircraft carrier sending out Goose and Maverick whenever they need a winner.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n There\u2019s currently nobody better at clicking through gears depending on what the game demands it. Time and again, the game has been close heading into the last quarter and far apart when the game. It happened against St Kilda last week, just as well as it happened against Hawthorn, just as well as it did against the Bulldogs.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n It happens because they have destroyers like Reid, Bolton, Young, Jackson, Brayshaw, Serong and on and on ready to deploy from peacetime to all-out wartime.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n While their usual posture is to play slower footy than I would like, the fact that they can put the throttle down basically when they feel like it guarantees them a seat at the Table. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Hawks are 1-1-2 over their last month as they\u2019ve dealt with a few absences, particularly to their bookends Tom Barrass and Jack Gunston.<\/a> As a result, their statistical profile over the last month or so is a little down as they\u2019re struggling for inside 50 retention and scores per inside 50 offensively and are generally middle of the pack defensively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n However, over the same period they\u2019re still top four in scores from turnover differential, forward 50 ground ball gets, and post clearance ground ball gets. That indicates that these Hawks still do everything around the ground that makes them good, they\u2019re just missing the players on either end that turn good process into good results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Forgive me for not thinking Blake Hardwick can replace Jack Gunston long-term.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n But the good news is, neither Barrass nor Gunston are expected out long term and this is a good time to have a little downturn before launching into the future. The Hawks and their aggressive running and ground ball brilliance are on the Table. <\/p>\n\n\n\n If I did this exercise in 2021, Geelong would have been at the Table. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Just like they would have been in 2011. <\/p>\n\n\n\n If the Table operated like the UN, Geelong would be like one of the five permanent members of the Security Council, except imagine if it meant anything. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Since their premiership in 2022, the Cats have overturned their list and turned footy into an athletics carnival, managing to run teams off their feet for game after game.<\/a> They\u2019ve turned that elite athletic profile into complete dominance in front half scoring, scoring heavily off both stoppage and turnover despite not having an elite inside midfield mix or an elite ruckman. They just have great around the ball structures that get their athletes into space.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Max Holmes and Bailey Smith have defined that shift. Smith, who turbocharged the change when he arrived from the Dogs, deserves particular mention. While nobody is as interested in Bailey Smith as Bailey Smith, you cannot deny that he\u2019s playing elite footy as he currently sits top 3 in metres gained and score involvements.<\/a> I\u2019m also not sure if he\u2019s ever been tired. <\/p>\n\n\n\n You add Jeremy Cameron playing better than he did to start the year, Tom Stewart having a renaissance year, and all the role players playing well and the Cats once again are at the Table. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The top four was easy. Now it gets hard. <\/p>\n\n\n\n I picked Gold Coast for the premiership and there\u2019s real argument to be made that I\u2019m just hanging onto my priors, particularly after I just watched Gold Coast completely stop for the last quarter against North Melbourne.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n But, I still think they deserve a seat. You can blame that loss on the top end tax and Gold Coast\u2019s underlying metrics are still strong, sitting fourth in the premiership metrics. They\u2019re also doing most of the Hardwick things, sitting second in time in forward half, third in scores from forward half and fourth in scores from turnover even without elite pressure forwards.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n We know that brand works, and we know that their good players are really good.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n So, while Gold Coast is still a little bit of a Boardwalk Empire <\/em>where I\u2019m confused about why they aren\u2019t better, I think they need a seat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Bloody hell. You want to talk about holding onto priors. The back-to-back champs are on the ropes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Brisbane cannot defend transition and it\u2019s killing them. For the season, Brisbane is giving up the second most points from the back half and are the second worst at stopping the ball at going from D50 to a score. Only Essendon is worse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And it\u2019s getting worse, as they\u2019ve given up two of their three worst games at defending transition over the last two weeks against GWS and Geelong.<\/a> The Giants kicked 14 straight goals against them on the weekend. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Lions mids, particularly Will Ashcroft, just aren\u2019t running defensively. The Lions forwards don\u2019t pressure anymore. Over the last five games, Brisbane is fourth lowest for tackles inside 50 and 17th<\/sup> in time in forward half. Last year they were fourth and eighth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But are you willing to write them off? Really? After two premierships and proof that they can throw away flip a switch as well as anyone? <\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019m treating them like I treated Robert De Niro after Dirty Grandpa<\/em>. I\u2019m not done with them yet, and I believe they\u2019ve got one more in them, but they need to show me. <\/p>\n\n\n\n De Niro had Killers of the Flower Moon<\/em>. Do the Lions have something similar? <\/p>\n\n\n\n Melbourne is a bit like a Curb Your Enthusiasm <\/em>script where you can feel the freedom within sort of broadly defined parameters.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n They\u2019re just very high variance. Sometimes it\u2019s the Palestinian chicken episode, and other times it\u2019s a whole season of Irma Kostroski. <\/p>\n\n\n\nSydney<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Fremantle<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Hawthorn<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Geelong <\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Gold Coast<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Brisbane<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
On the Cusp<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Melbourne <\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n