Four of the five biggest traditional Melbourne clubs are either in, or appear to be careening towards, significant rebuilds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
All appear certain to miss the top six and only Collingwood is likely to make the wildcard, particularly given that Carlton has been seriously incentivised to lose so they can get access to Cody Walker at pre inflation prices<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Clearly the AFL\u2019s chicanery could lead to Carlton getting a better outcome than they would have got because they could get Walker and a pick at the end of the first round, though they\u2019ll probably confect a way to get out of that as well.<\/a> This AFL is addicted to releasing rabbits into the wild to hunt a bug that they can\u2019t eradicate, then sending foxes to hunt the rabbits and on and on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n For a great game, the sport appears to be administered largely by morons who are driven by being able to go on junkets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It all means that we\u2019re about to have a season where Spielberg didn\u2019t make a movie and The Artist <\/em>is going to win the Oscar (unless of course the unthinkable happens and Hawthorn wins). <\/p>\n\n\n\n But what about over the next five years. Whose position would you rather be in over the next five years? <\/p>\n\n\n\n Let\u2019s have a look at each club. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Blues appear to be pretty much certain to replace their coach at the end of the season and Graham Wright doesn\u2019t seem averse to big game hunting given his pursuit of Craig McRae.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Based on that, there\u2019s not much point digging into Michael Voss\u2019 game style. <\/p>\n\n\n\n However, given that pursuit and Carlton\u2019s deep messiah complex and the pursuit of McRae, I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if they chased a big fish. Maybe someone like Adam Simpson who, if they hired, I would instantly downgrade their outlook. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The question at Carlton is solely about list talent. Over the next five years, they probably won\u2019t have Cripps, Weitering, or McKay any longer but they will have brought in Cody Walker. Alongside him, they\u2019ll have Jagga Smith and Sam Walsh though by that point his back could be worse than Julius Caesar\u2019s just after he got stabbed in it.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Harry Dean has also looked steady to this point in his career and figures to be a big part of their future.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Blues next five years figures to be a rebuild with those four players at the heart of it. It\u2019s not a bad start, particularly if footy continues to preference run and carry over grunt in midfield. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Carlton\u2019s rebuild could be off to a worse start. <\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019m not breaking news here: Collingwood has no young talent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In terms of building blocks under 25, it\u2019s basically Nick Daicos, Oscar Steene (who has played five career games so describing him as a building block is probably generous),<\/a> and maybe Angus Anderson (who has played even less than Steene). <\/p>\n\n\n\n Even Anderson looks like a Ned Long clone to me, and I don\u2019t mean it in a good way. <\/p>\n\n\n\n So the questions for Collingwood\u2019s five-year outlook are twofold: <\/p>\n\n\n\n For the first question, I\u2019d be surprised if Daicos left for Tasmania. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Daicos was built to be an AFL star. He\u2019s erudite, talented, and always says the right thing.<\/a> He\u2019s kind of like Victor Wembanyama, where you can see that he\u2019s been building toward being a super-duper star for his whole life. <\/p>\n\n\n\n This is not Joe Daniher, where the limelight of Melbourne was too much. Daicos clearly loves it. He even gets other people to crack the shits for him so he gets what he wants, like what happened with last year\u2019s best and fairest.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Clearly, he\u2019s familiar with Cris Carter\u2019s fall guy speech. <\/p>\n\n\n\n There\u2019s nowhere better to be a super-duperstar than Collingwood. Even if the money Tasmania offers is ludicrous, the commercial opportunities at Collingwood will be far bigger. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The question about McRae is an important one as well. He has the best defensive system in footy that would probably preclude them from ever truly bottoming out, but that might hurt them in the long run because they need access to elite young players. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The final factor with Collingwood is that they\u2019re Collingwood. People want to play for the biggest club in footy, so they can do Laker rebuilds where they fall ass backwards into stars. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Gee whiz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Essendon\u2019s lack of truly elite top end youngsters is kind of unbelievable given how bad they have been for as long as they\u2019ve been bad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s a bit like the Gen Zers in Beef <\/em>having a golden opportunity to blackmail Oscar Isaac and Carey Mulligan and coming away with pretty average American health insurance and their shitty overleveraged life.<\/a> Like what are you doing? These people love debt! Force them into more of it! <\/p>\n\n\n\n Anyway, their best young players are Sam Durham and Archie Roberts. Durham has been good for a while but Roberts looks to be making the leap, though threatens to be a bit of a Bryce Gibbs type who racks up elite numbers without elite impact.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Outside of them, guys like Farrow, Sharp, Day Wicks, Kako, and Caddy have all shown something but aren\u2019t necessarily blue-chip prospects like Sam Lalor.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n In terms of coaching, the club seems to be backing Brad Scott to the hilt. As a recovering Brad Scott truther myself, I understand this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Whether the hilt has a five-year time horizon, I do not know. <\/p>\n\n\n\n However, if it is Scott long term, he needs to learn some lessons from what his retread mates Ross and Clarko and understand the value of kicking forward not just sideways. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In terms of high picks that are young on the list, Richmond is in an unenviable spot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n As we all know, they bottomed out in 2024 and got a million picks and are now on the rocket ship up! <\/p>\n\n\n\n Wait, what? What\u2019s that I\u2019m hearing? They\u2019re terrible and none of the young players except Sam Lalor are playing? Oh no.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Richmond was praised by the footy commentariat for the same reason that the Sam Hinkie Sixers were praised. Everyone understands the concept of losing and getting a tonne of picks. It\u2019s not complicated. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But for it to work, the kids need to play and they especially need to play while the mature players on the list are still playing. That means Smilie, Hotton, Armstrong, Faull, Cumming, Fawcett, and Gibcus all need to be playing regularly while Vlastuin, Broad, Lynch, Nankervis and Taranto are still around to protect them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The worry is that all of the young players that I just listed have missed either all or a chunk of the season already for form or physical reasons. Otherwise, the risk is that the Tigers turn into the Hinkie Sixers, who never quite figured out the point at which you\u2019re supposed to start trying to win. <\/p>\n\n\n\nCarlton<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Collingwood<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Essendon<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Richmond<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n