{"id":84751,"date":"2026-04-08T11:19:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T01:19:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=84751"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:29:28","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:29:28","slug":"who-can-win-the-premiership-as-told-by-the-sopranos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2026\/04\/who-can-win-the-premiership-as-told-by-the-sopranos\/","title":{"rendered":"Who Can Win the Premiership? (As Told By The Sopranos)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This has been, without question, one of the worst fixtured starts to an AFL season in living memory. It feels like it was dreamt up by Amy Brookheimer in the middle of a psychotic break<\/a>, but somehow makes even less sense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But now, finally, as we head into round five every team has played the same amount of games (four, for some reason) and we\u2019re actually going to get a full round of footy for one of just 15 times out of the 24 weeks of the season<\/a>. Meaning, somehow, a third of the rounds are bye compromised, including all but one of the first five rounds of matches. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which is awesome.<\/a>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, now that we head into a real joyful part of the season where everyone is playing for a few weeks in a row, it\u2019s a good time to take stock and check in on who can really win it.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At this point, it isn\u2019t a ruling people in exercise. It\u2019s more about who we can completely rule out. Every tier of teams will get a quote from The Sopranos <\/em>to explain where they\u2019re at in the context of the rest of the league because I\u2019m rewatching it for the hundredth time and I have them rattling around in my head. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI\u2019m the moth********* one who calls the shots\u201d<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sydney <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brisbane <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bulldogs <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These teams are obvious. They are three of the most talented teams that have each played, all told, probably the best footy of the year.<\/a>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of them are perfect and all have potentially fatal flaws – Sydney\u2019s gun key forward only kicks goals against bad teams, Brisbane is heavily reliant on older players, and the Dogs lack winners behind the ball \u2013 but all of them can clearly win the whole thing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHow much more betrayal can\u00a0I<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0take<\/strong>?\u201d<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Coast <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fremantle <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hawthorn  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geelong <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paulie has been through a lot with his mother, his aunt, and now Vito catching, not pitching.<\/a> We\u2019ve been through a similar amount with each of these teams, all of whom have either lost or struggled through games they shouldn\u2019t have lost or struggled through.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Coast were just overrun by Melbourne this week<\/a>, reminding me of the 2015 Clippers with how certain they were that they could just flip a switch despite not accomplishing anything that indicates they can do that.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fremantle got chased down by Geelong in Round 1 after being in a commanding position, and almost did it again against the Crows last week but for some heroics from their superstar captain.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hawthorn was bizarrely beaten by a pretty poor GWS team in opening round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, Geelong is currently eleventh and were absolutely trounced in opening round by Gold Coast.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These teams can all win the premiership, clearly. But they have all betrayed us at least once this season and I don\u2019t know how much more betrayal we can take. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c<\/strong>The best is over<\/strong><\/a>\u201d<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

GWS <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adelaide  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am not willing to write these teams off\u2026yet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it looks like the best might be over for them. Both were finals teams and contenders last year, but both have been cruelled by injury or just down play this season, currently sitting 16th<\/sup> and 13th<\/sup> on the ladder respectively with just two wins between them.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also seem to be behind the teams on how to play footy, and have serious flaws in the list.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matthew Nicks has dragged Adelaide back into their 2024 shell and has them playing overly defensive footy with a really poor midfield brigade outside of Jordan Dawson.<\/a>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adam Kingsley has GWS once again neglecting any semblance of a front half game and has injuries all over the park, some of whom will come back and some won\u2019t.<\/a>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These lists are broadly talented and I\u2019m hesitant to write them off yet, but like Tony entering the mob after its halcyon period, these teams might have entered this season past their peaks.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c11:30. Has to be. Look at the angle of the sun. Maybe even quarter to 12. Okay. Look now. <\/strong><\/a><\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ufffc<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fuck me!\u201d<\/strong><\/a><\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

St Kilda <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Melbourne <\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Melbourne <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like Vito when he had to get back to doing a show job, rather than a no-show job,<\/a> these teams are talking themselves into something that just isn\u2019t there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But they\u2019re still talking themselves into it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

All three of these teams are looking at the sun and have reasons to be optimistic.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Saints and Dees are going against type and are playing genuinely attractive footy while North Melbourne might finally be turning a corner.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

All three have genuine reasons to believe that they can make the wildcard round, and probably be annoying teams to play.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But don\u2019t look at your watch and expect to see premiership contender just yet.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the first group of teams that I am definitively ruling out from the premiership. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou\u2019re weak. You\u2019re out of control. And you\u2019ve become an embarrassment to yourself and everybody else\u201d<\/strong><\/a><\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Collingwood <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Richmond <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essendon <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Port Adelaide  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

West Coast <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carlton <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are six teams in this tier. Five of them were in the top seven for membership numbers in 2025. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are huge clubs (and Port) that have disgraced themselves and their families and they need an intervention. And the most unbelievable thing is, all of them came into the season knowing they\u2019d probably be pretty bad.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I mean, Carlton\u2019s hair is in the toilet water every second half. Disgusting.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only Collingwood could reasonably have deluded themselves into thinking they were a finals contender, but as we saw on Thursday night, they are so reliant on the Daicos brothers that if one of them is out they\u2019re just not good outside of a very strong defensive system. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only team in this list that has had a bright moment is West Coast, when they beat Port in Adelaide last week. They also have probably the best system of all of these teams and are, in my view, the most likely to rise next year.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But no, these teams can\u2019t win. For their size, they\u2019re an embarrassment.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This has been, without question, one of the worst fixtured starts to an AFL season in living memory. It feels like it was dreamt up by Amy Brookheimer in the middle of a psychotic break, but somehow makes even less sense.  But now, finally, as we head into round five every team has played the same amount of games (four, for some reason) and we\u2019re actually going to get a full round of footy for one of just 15 times out of the 24 weeks of the season. Meaning, somehow, a third of the rounds are bye compromised, including all but one of the first…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":84752,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298],"tags":[8260],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-84751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","tag-guywholikessport"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"08\/04\/2026","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84751"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84751\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87697,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84751\/revisions\/87697"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84751"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=84751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}