Footy is back! And in classic AFL fashion, it\u2019s starting with a whimper. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
We have a little over half a round, four fifths of which will be played in the northern states to \u201ctake advantage\u201d of the NRL being in Vegas this weekend. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m not quite sure how that works but stick with me! <\/p>\n\n\n\n
There\u2019s also a fifth game, but that\u2019s happening at the MCG because Collingwood has cracked the sads and doesn\u2019t want another interstate trip to add to their three this season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The internal logic of the Fast and Furious <\/em>movies makes more sense than the AFL\u2019s decision making around \u201cOpening Round\u201d.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n By the way, don\u2019t call it Round 1 or Andrew Dillon will send you to hell, which is trying to sell the AFL in Delhi to a bunch of guys who think you\u2019re Steve Smith. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Anyway, despite the AFL refusing to acknowledge how dumb Opening Round is and sticking with it, it is exciting to have some real games back so we can stop pretending that anything out of preseason matters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Here\u2019s one question for each of the five games in Opening Round. <\/p>\n\n\n\n There\u2019s only one question in this game, and it\u2019s about Sydney\u2019s new key forward. While I\u2019m lower on the Curnow addition than most<\/a>, key forwards look good wheeling around and kicking 80m goals in that red and white, and Charlie is no exception.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n But how does he go in a real game? <\/p>\n\n\n\n What we know about Curnow is that he has tended to falter in big games, kicking just three goals across his three career finals. However, Charlie loves to dominate small games. Curnow has kicked more goals in eight games against West Coast \u2013 29 \u2013 than he has against any other team, despite them being his equal tenth most played team.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n So what\u2019s this one? It\u2019s the season curtain-raiser and he\u2019s playing against the team he left as soon as the going got truly tough. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It sounds like a big game to me. <\/p>\n\n\n\n If he\u2019s going to be a success at Sydney, a statement that he\u2019s left Carlton\u2019s culture of failure in big spots would be a good place to start. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Gold Coast was a strong clearance team last year. They were fourth in total clearances, third in first possessions, and second in turning first possessions into clearances. They also had some end product, sitting fourth in expected chain stoppage scores and third in stoppage scoring. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Geelong, on the other hand, was elite at mucking up stoppages last year. They allowed teams to get the third most first possessions, but the fewest of those first possessions turning into clearances. They were also top-6 defending stoppage scores and fewest expected stoppage chain scores by opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n What showed in the finals, however, is that there\u2019s levels to this shit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite Gold Coast\u2019s strong overall numbers, their finals loss to Brisbane and their Round 13 loss tot Geelong were their two worst stoppage scoring games of the season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Tom Atkins and Josh Dunkley locked the door to the bar and told Gold Coast\u2019s midfield brigade \u201cnow youse can\u2019t leave\u201d like Sonny in A Bronx Tale<\/em>.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n They clearly felt like they needed to sharpen the spear, and they brought in Christian Petracca to add an extra explosive element to their stoppage scoring game<\/a>. Even in a down year off injury, Petracca led all mid-forwards in attacking midfield possessions and score involvements while sitting sixth in overall scoreboard impact. <\/p>\n\n\n\n He was brought in to be one of those poison-soaked arrows from Avatar, <\/em>tasked with turning an already dangerous product into a lethal one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n A first game against Geelong is a good place to see how it\u2019s going after preseason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n I enjoyed the GWS behind the scenes documentary. It was good fun in all areas, but especially when Adam Kingsley yelled at the team.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Whilst I do not think Kingsley is anywhere near as good of a coach as his reputation suggests, you can see that he\u2019s good at problem identification. It felt like every time he yelled at the Giants in the doc, it was because they just weren\u2019t getting enough contested ball. <\/p>\n\n\n\n He was clearly right, with GWS in the bottom five for contested ball differential. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s no wonder, then, that they went and took the shot on Clayton Oliver to provide some extra juice to the contested ball game.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n But GWS is feeling a bit like Jerry Seinfeld in the Even Steven episode these days<\/a>, as they brought in one contested bull to help their existing contested bull, only for their existing contested bull \u2013 Tom Green \u2013 to be lost for the season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It feels like with the injury, GWS has the same problem as last year just with a different face. <\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019m not sure what the question is for Brisbane, honestly. I would have said it\u2019s about how Oscar Allen fits into the forward line, but that leads to the next point: if ever there was a team to debut against as a key forward, it\u2019s the Bulldogs.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n One of these teams won the premiership. The other one won the nerd offensive stats premiership while failing to make the finals because they couldn\u2019t stop a blood nose all year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Neither seems very likely to divert from that path. <\/p>\n\n\n\n All of these questions are about some change that was made and how that affects the season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n This one is about the changes that weren\u2019t made and whether anything happens. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Teams have a proud history of winning offseasons and losing actual seasons, as I detailed in a column a few years ago about what I call the trade period industrial complex.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n The crux of the piece is that AFL has built this massive infrastructure around a 10 day period where B+ players get moved from one club to another with the theory being that they will change fortunes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Generally, the outcome is that whoever \u201cwins\u201d the trade period wins nothing on the field, unless they\u2019re adding a superstar like Patty Dangerfield or Tom Lynch. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The best recent example of this was Richmond adding Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto, but the best one of the decade is Essendon\u2019s banner 2018 offseason where they added Jake Stringer, Dylan Shiel, and Devon Smith.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n How\u2019d that go? <\/p>\n\n\n\nSydney v Carlton: How does Charlie go?<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Gold Coast v Geelong: How has Gold Coast\u2019s clearance game changed?<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
GWS v Hawthorn: Can GWS start a contested ball revolution without Tom Green?<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Brisbane v Bulldogs: Has anything changed for either team?<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
St Kilda v Collingwood:<\/strong> How do the Saints new guys look?<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n