{"id":82605,"date":"2026-02-10T08:51:46","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T22:51:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=82605"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:29:32","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:29:32","slug":"ranking-afl-premiership-contenders-by-list-talent-part-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2026\/02\/ranking-afl-premiership-contenders-by-list-talent-part-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Ranking AFL Premiership Contenders by List Talent (Part 1)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As we get closer to the season, it\u2019s useful to remind myself who the good players are and where they play. This exercise does that. It\u2019s like watching one of those 15-minute Severance recaps before season two, only to realise you didn\u2019t need it because the show spent most of the season sniffing its own farts instead of advancing the plot.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, what is the exercise?  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve gone through every list and picked out just the high-end talent. I have identified the superstars, stars, and the potential stars and given each tier of player a certain number of points.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

From there, I\u2019ve stacked teams by total points to tier premiership contenders heading into the 2026 season based on list talent alone, not taking into account balance, coaching or anything else. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve defined a superstar as the kind of player that you build a list around. These are the types of players that make 50\/50 situations into 70\/30s in their team\u2019s favour. This is a Marcus Bontempelli or Nick Daicos level of player. In my rankings system, they are worth five points.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A star is defined as a player that a club would look at and be happy that he is in the role that he\u2019s in, with the capacity to elevate to a superstar in a given situation. Someone like Josh Dunkley is the perfect star. He\u2019s a genuine asset when he\u2019s around the ball, but he\u2019s not a moment-to-moment game wrecker. They are worth two points. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A potential star is defined as someone born in or after 2002 who have shown the capacity to elevate to a star or even superstar level. This means there are no first year players included because we just haven\u2019t seen it yet. They are worth one point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I find this exercise to be particularly useful because, as we saw in last year\u2019s Grand Final systems win seasons, but players win finals. You\u2019d be hard pressed to find anyone that likes Brisbane\u2019s one size fits all opponents\u2019 system more than Geelong\u2019s more chameleonic ability, but that wasn\u2019t the point in that game. In the end the best players won it. Lachie Neale came in and cleaned a game that Geelong dirtied, driving Brisbane to a second flag in two years.<\/a>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember as you read that this exercise isn\u2019t predictive, and it isn\u2019t holistic. It\u2019s a blunt instrument designed to answer one question only: who has the most top-end talent heading into 2026? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tier 5: Big Club Massacres (and Port)<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

West Coast ($251.00)<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Superstar: N\/A <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Star: Jake Waterman, Liam Baker, Reuben Ginbey, Harley Reid (8) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possible star: Archer Reid, Elijah Hewett (2) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total<\/strong>: 10 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Richmond ($251.00)<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Superstar: N\/A <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Star: Nick Vlastuin, Tim Taranto, Toby Nankervis (6) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possible star: Josh Gibcus, Sam Lalor, Taj Hotton, Luke Trainor, Harry Armstrong, Rhyan Mansell, Sam Banks, Seth Campbell (8) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total<\/strong>: 14 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carlton ($41.00)<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Superstar: Patrick Cripps, Jacob Weitering (10) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Star: Harry McKay, Sam Walsh (4) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possible star: Harry O\u2019Farrell (1) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total<\/strong>: 15 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Port Adelaide ($67.00)<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Superstar: Zak Butters (5) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Star: Miles Bergman, Jason Horne-Francis, Mitch Georgiades, Allir Allir, Connor Rozee (10) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possible star: Jase Burgoyne (1) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total<\/strong>: 16 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essendon ($101.00)<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Superstar: Zach Merrett (5) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Star: Kyle Langford, Jordan Ridley, Mason Redman, Nic Martin (note: injured for year)<\/a> (8\/6) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possible star: Isaac Kako, Archie Roberts, Nate Caddy, Sam Durham, Jye Caldwell (5) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total<\/strong>: 18\/16 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Collingwood ($15.00)<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Superstar: Nick Daicos (5) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Star: Isaac Quaynor, Jamie Elliott, Josh Daicos, Jack Crisp, Darcy Moore, Steele Sidebottom, Darcy Cameron (14) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possible star: N\/A <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total<\/strong>: 19 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Melbourne ($81.00)<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Superstar:  Max Gawn, Kysiah Pickett (10) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Star: Jake Lever, Trent Rivers, Jake Bowey (6) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possible star: Caleb Windsor, Koltyn Tholstrup, Harvey Langford, Xavier Lindsay (4) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total<\/strong>: 20 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the 2025 membership numbers, the four biggest clubs in the AFL figure to be pretty bad this year.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carlton, Richmond, and West Coast I expected. All of them are either starting, or in the midst of, tearing it down to the studs level rebuilds.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I truly did not expect Collingwood to be this low, however. But where do you argue? Does anyone feel good about Dan Houston? Is he a star?  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve not seen a single \u201cJordan De Goey went to Brazil to learn how to exercise consistently\u201d article this offseason so his likely season is him fatly waddling around for 8 games. Is that a star? Scott Pendlebury had his worst year since 2012 by player ratings. Is that going to get better at 38? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Collingwood this year is like Dakota Johnson. Famous name, but are we sure they\u2019re good? I just watched Materialists <\/em>and I\u2019m pretty confident the answer is no for both. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AFL might need to prepare for a smaller ticket finals series. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tier 4: Just strange\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

North Melbourne ($101.00)<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Superstar: Paul Curtis, Tristan Xerri (10) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Star: Harry Sheezel, George Wardlaw, Luke Davies Uniacke, Nick Larkey, Cam Zurhaar (10) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possible star: Colby McKercher, Finn O\u2019Sullivan (2) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total<\/strong>: 22 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

St Kilda ($21.00)<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Superstar: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Cal Wilkie (10) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Star: Rowan Marshall, Darcy Wilson, Jack Sinclair, Tom De Koning (8) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possible star: Lance Collard, Mitch Owens, Mattaes Phillipou, Alix Tauru, Hugo Garcia, Max Hall, Hugh Boxshall (7) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Total<\/strong>: 25 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

No, this is not a bit about povo clubs.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s also not a commentary on the two clubs that are basically 1:1 for wins: letters from the president to the members apologising for poor on or off field performance.<\/a>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s just that these are two odd teams.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Saints splurged in free agency, adding Jack Silvagni, Liam Ryan, Tom De Koning, and Sam Flanders.<\/a> This was a series of strange decisions and is almost exactly what you\u2019re not meant to do in free agency: pay sticker price for mediocre veterans because of a lack of supply on one end and desperation on the other.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But their list is<\/em> better than it was before free agency and they\u2019ll probably get a one season microwave. This isn\u2019t a resource allocation column, it\u2019s a talent column and at the very least they added one star.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

North Melbourne, on the other hand, can\u2019t even pay overs for players to come to their club, but they have been picking in the top 3 since Joe Biden got elected, so they have some star level players almost by accident.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite these teams having more top end talent than the teams in tier 5 by my calculations, I have almost no idea how it goes for either outfit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strange business. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As we get closer to the season, it\u2019s useful to remind myself who the good players are and where they play. This exercise does that. It\u2019s like watching one of those 15-minute Severance recaps before season two, only to realise you didn\u2019t need it because the show spent most of the season sniffing its own farts instead of advancing the plot.  So, what is the exercise?   I\u2019ve gone through every list and picked out just the high-end talent. I have identified the superstars, stars, and the potential stars and given each tier of player a certain number of points.   From there, I\u2019ve stacked teams by total points to tier premiership…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":82606,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,598],"tags":[8260],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-82605","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-special-interest","tag-guywholikessport"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"10\/02\/2026","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82605","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82605"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82605\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87714,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82605\/revisions\/87714"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82606"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82605"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82605"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82605"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=82605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}