{"id":82062,"date":"2026-01-27T07:41:46","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T21:41:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=82062"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:29:33","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:29:33","slug":"why-carlton-is-less-broken-than-you-think","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2026\/01\/why-carlton-is-less-broken-than-you-think\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Carlton is Less Broken Than You Think"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tactically, Michael Voss is not a brilliant coach. He might not even be a good one.&nbsp;He\u2019s&nbsp;stuck in an era of footy that&nbsp;doesn\u2019t&nbsp;exist anymore.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has pure ruckmen, pure key defenders, pure key forwards.&nbsp;He likes round pegs to fit into round&nbsp;holes&nbsp;and&nbsp;he\u2019s&nbsp;not interested in fashioning different shaped holes for&nbsp;different kinds&nbsp;of players to fit into.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I assume that&nbsp;his whiteboard looks exactly like your school footy coach\u2019s whiteboard and there is no&nbsp;acknowledgement&nbsp;of the new roles that have come to define the game.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Role flexibility is like BDSM&nbsp;to him.&nbsp;It\u2019s&nbsp;just something people on the internet do.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His success as a coach to this point, however modest, has&nbsp;therefore relied&nbsp;almost exclusively&nbsp;on two things:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A real ability to coach effort, and\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"2\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Having superstars across every line.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/sydneyswans\/status\/1978385485073371554\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">This year, Voss lost a superstar when Charlie Curnow forced his way to Sydney.<\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another of his superstars, Patrick Cripps, is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career and is heading into his age 31 season after a career of carrying a gigantic physical toll.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A third of his \u201csuperstars\u201d,&nbsp;Tom De Koning,&nbsp;is barely a star but is off to St Kilda for an exorbitant cost.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, why am I optimistic?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Refer to point 1.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/blueabroadmedia\/status\/1811171346782810585\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Even in a poor year last year, the Blues were top 5 in inside 50 differential, clearance differential, ground ball gets, pressure acts, and tackles.<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Blues had a pretty&nbsp;clear way&nbsp;to&nbsp;play&nbsp;and it relied on a heavily contested midfield and having enough triers in the front half of the ground to&nbsp;consistently win the field position battle.&nbsp;They were a bit like Imagine Dragons. They only do one thing, and the returns are diminishing, but effort was never the issue.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their problems last year were threefold, and were both structure and personnel based:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Curnow and McKay, in their eighth year together, doing a Simmons and Embiid impression and giving each other no space,\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"2\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Small forwards who, while they tried hard,\u00a0are C+ at best players with ball in hand, and\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"3\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A real lack of leg-speed and ball use\u00a0from the back half which demolished their transition game.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>As long as&nbsp;Voss&nbsp;retains&nbsp;the level of buy-in that&nbsp;he\u2019s&nbsp;had through his coaching career thus far, those problems could potentially be solved this year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First of all, Curnow is now a Sydney player.&nbsp;That could make Carlton better, at least partly by freeing up Harry McKay.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CarltonFC\/status\/1920954682006016323\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Whilst McKay hasn\u2019t always been brilliant with Curnow not in the lineup, the best year of his career was 2021 when Curnow played in just four games.<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carlton also brought in modern, flexible players that should all help Harry McKay flourish as a first banana.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Firstly, a player&nbsp;acquired&nbsp;in the Curnow trade: Will Hayward. Hayward is a better player on the lead than McKay and a brilliant overhead mark for his size.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/7AFL\/status\/1839888675301191883\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">He\u2019s also a talented ground-level player inside 50, sitting fifth among general forwards for forward 50 ground ball gets. He brings a much-needed goal sense too, kicking at least 28 goals in each of the last five seasons, including 41 in 2024.<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next key addition was Ben Ainsworth.&nbsp;Ainsworth is not a star&nbsp;and&nbsp;never will be. However, he is the platonic ideal of the hard running, high half forward with good skills.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CarltonFCBlues\/status\/1976494284787548451\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Among general forwards last year, Ainsworth was fifth in kick inside 50 retention&nbsp;rate&nbsp;with 61%.<\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last year, Carlton\u2019s best inside 50 retention rate forward was Jesse&nbsp;Motlop&nbsp;at 43%, 35<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;among 45 qualifying general forwards.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both Ainsworth and especially Hayward are also high effort players and should help with inside 50&nbsp;pressure, which is something that Curnow never did especially when he&nbsp;wasn\u2019t&nbsp;playing well.&nbsp;They also are both going to look like Bill and Ted going&nbsp;back&nbsp;to hang out with Napoleon as modern players in an otherwise&nbsp;fairly outdated&nbsp;team.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Problem 3 still threatens to be an issue for the Blues.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/7AFL\/status\/1700131069138190784\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">This is still a slow team on paper whose fans will probably still be stuck borderline ironically \u201cwoofing\u201d for Adam Saad kicks.<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But,&nbsp;the problem can be&nbsp;helped&nbsp;slightly. Ainsworth will move up and down the ground and provide some general&nbsp;assistance&nbsp;with ball movement. Separate to him,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/7AFL\/status\/1954373343122989480\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Jagga Smith is coming off his ACL injury but, when he was drafted, was meant to be a freaky athlete<\/a>&nbsp;with genuine running power, and Ollie Florent was also added from Sydney.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Like Ainsworth, Florent will never be a&nbsp;star&nbsp;but he is fast enough and a trier.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CarltonFC\/status\/1999031313983222172\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">He also got nine of his 15&nbsp;possessions a game in either defensive 50 or defensive midfield last year&nbsp;even after moving more into the midfield. He also had&nbsp;had 3.8 rebound 50s in each of 2023 and 2024 for over 360 metres gained&nbsp;when he was more of a half back.<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What does it all mean?&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carlton&nbsp;won\u2019t&nbsp;be good this year and&nbsp;shouldn\u2019t&nbsp;be talked about like a premiership contender, but they can be a pest for good teams.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They\u2019ll&nbsp;still try hard and have added more modern players to an overly traditional team to try and fix some of the structural issues that have plagued the Voss years separate to just trying hard.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It also means that the Ewing Theory committee is evaluating the situation at Ikon Park vis-\u00e0-vis Charles Curnow.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tactically, Michael Voss is not a brilliant coach. He might not even be a good one.&nbsp;He\u2019s&nbsp;stuck in an era of footy that&nbsp;doesn\u2019t&nbsp;exist anymore.&nbsp; He has pure ruckmen, pure key defenders, pure key forwards.&nbsp;He likes round pegs to fit into round&nbsp;holes&nbsp;and&nbsp;he\u2019s&nbsp;not interested in fashioning different shaped holes for&nbsp;different kinds&nbsp;of players to fit into.&nbsp; I assume that&nbsp;his whiteboard looks exactly like your school footy coach\u2019s whiteboard and there is no&nbsp;acknowledgement&nbsp;of the new roles that have come to define the game.&nbsp; Role flexibility is like BDSM&nbsp;to him.&nbsp;It\u2019s&nbsp;just something people on the internet do.&nbsp; His success as a coach to this point, however modest,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":82063,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,598],"tags":[8260],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-82062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-special-interest","tag-guywholikessport"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"27\/01\/2026","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82062","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82062"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82062\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87718,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82062\/revisions\/87718"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82063"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82062"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82062"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=82062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}