{"id":79614,"date":"2025-11-18T09:25:22","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T23:25:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=79614"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:29:36","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:29:36","slug":"three-key-takeaways-from-the-2026-afl-fixture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2025\/11\/three-key-takeaways-from-the-2026-afl-fixture\/","title":{"rendered":"Three Key Takeaways from the 2026 AFL Fixture"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The AFL released its fixture in dribs and drabs last week, but now, finally, the full thing is out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Anyone need a trifold <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFL?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFL<\/a> fixture for next year? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wchgDV2lS4\">pic.twitter.com\/wchgDV2lS4<\/a><\/p>&mdash; calculon559 (@calculon559) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/calculon559\/status\/1989248451272712290?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 14, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>After taking some time to mull it over, here are three key takeaways from the 2026 AFL fixture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The AFL is a real estate business<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>My dad\u2019s side of the family came to this country from Greece in the early 70s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All the Greeks that came here worked hard and bought land pretty much as soon as they could.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That, combined with free university education from the Whitlam government, was essentially the greatest downstream wealth creation combination of factors in the recent history of this country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because of that formative experience, my dad gave me one lesson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s the same lesson that Tony Soprano taught AJ, and the same lesson the AFL has learned and continues to lean into: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=55kK29kaduY\">buy land, because God isn\u2019t making any more of it.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we learned with Paramount\u2019s public reasons for buying the UFC, there\u2019s value in just being on TV as much as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Owning time on the TV airwaves, with live games and general coverage, is sporting real estate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Paramount executives tout the importance of the UFC being a year round sport.<br><br>They noticed how many subscribers were lost between the Masters and the start of the NFL season. UFC has no offseason. <br><br>Calls the UFC a &quot;perfect&quot; sport for Paramount<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/UFC?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#UFC<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Damon Martin (@DamonMartin) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DamonMartin\/status\/1988005799927378352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 10, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This year, with this fixture, the AFL went full boomer and bought even more of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trade radio, for instance, is just about real estate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Similarly, drip-feeding fixture information was just about real estate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But then when we get into the season proper, the way the fixture is laid out is plainly to keep the AFL in the news and on the TV as much as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To that end, they\u2019ve kept the Thursday night expansion that everyone hated last season, as well as the other recent \u201cinnovations\u201d that occupy more days with games like Good Friday and Opening Round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their latest addition to the portfolio is \u201cWildcard Weekend\u201d that is not a wildcard it\u2019s just a final 10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The obsession with real estate has led to perverse outcomes like two finals being played in the pre-finals bye or Round 1 being the second weekend of games but why does that matter?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Shaking up the premiership race \ud83c\udfc6<br><br>Two wildcard finals will be played across the traditional pre-finals bye weekend in 2026: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/a8hZjftcgs\">https:\/\/t.co\/a8hZjftcgs<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/E8XbElUcqy\">pic.twitter.com\/E8XbElUcqy<\/a><\/p>&mdash; AFL (@AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFL\/status\/1987694525473808779?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 10, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Does your boomer landlord care that the aircon doesn\u2019t work?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s just about the real estate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The AFL is betting on Charlie Curnow<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>From Opening Round to Round 7, the Swans play in six night games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They play the opening game of the season during the truly dumb Opening Round then play another two Thursday nights and a Friday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This for a team that finished 10<sup>th<\/sup> last year with a percentage of 97, 40% worse than the team that finished ninth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a league betting on the Swans\u2019 newly acquired superstar, Charlie Curnow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">FIXTURE GRADE: C+ \ud83e\udda2<br><br>Lots of prime time love for Charlie Curnow and the Swans in 2026.<br><br>And we&#39;ll get a fair idea early in the season if they&#39;re the legit contender many think they&#39;ll be.<br><br>EVERY CLUB\u2019S \u201826 FIXTURE GRADED &gt;&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Krzu8dhOPD\">https:\/\/t.co\/Krzu8dhOPD<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tqx98OUY6Y\">pic.twitter.com\/tqx98OUY6Y<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Fox Footy (@FOXFOOTY) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FOXFOOTY\/status\/1989936473337163861?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 16, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>That sounds dangerous to me, and there feels like a real risk we\u2019re about to get Essendon\u2019d again (the phenomenon on an average team constantly being on prime time because the league assumed they\u2019d be better).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Curnow was not moving anywhere near the same way last year that he did in years previous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">CHARLIE CURNOW!<br><br>A massive leap before slotting his career-high eighth goal \ud83e\udd29<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLEaglesBlues?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLEaglesBlues<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/MMdc8wUpXr\">pic.twitter.com\/MMdc8wUpXr<\/a><\/p>&mdash; AFL (@AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFL\/status\/1652278045427003393?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 29, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though he\u2019s only going to be 29 when the season starts, this is a man who played 11 games in 2019, none in 2020, and four in 2021 all because of knee injuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a player who is so reliant on movement and explosiveness, I can\u2019t help but feel he might be approaching the cliff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The league, to say nothing of the Swans, have bet on a man who is on Joel Embiid \u201cit\u2019ll be over before we know it\u201d watch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The latest on Joel Embiid <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PHLY_Sports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@PHLY_Sports<\/a> <br><br>(We will update this story as info comes in later this evening, presumably) <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/wKIpor89jq\">https:\/\/t.co\/wKIpor89jq<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sYlexFqdeY\">pic.twitter.com\/sYlexFqdeY<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KyleNeubeck\/status\/1988398937120928171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 12, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The AFL is not interested in an equalised fixture<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s an obvious way to have an equal fixture in the AFL.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Everyone would play everyone once until round 17 and then either you end the season or, because of the first point in this column, you figure out who to play twice based on ladder position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Has been lots of talk about equalising the AFL draft.<br><br>But the biggest equalisation lever to pull is the AFL fixture.<br><br>Every club should play each other once to Round 17 and then the double ups are based on ladder position. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/QAwrfZ6y1t\">pic.twitter.com\/QAwrfZ6y1t<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Rohanc (@rohancct) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rohancct\/status\/1962017404084711850?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 31, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If the AFL did that, they wouldn\u2019t need to keep going with the chicanery they have now where they divide the ladder into three sixes and then come up with the double ups based on that, and then you wouldn\u2019t have to be playing under last year\u2019s mode of operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But they don\u2019t do that because, frankly, the AFL is not that fazed about equalisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=4wdFhDursxw\">They\u2019re Phil Dunphy saying \u201cgotta fix that step\u201d with no real interest in ever fixing the step<\/a> because why would he?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has a very attractive wife, nice family, and a big house. What\u2019s one stupid step?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The AFL thinks basically the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given this game rakes in money every year, it seems to me that structural equalisation is just something to get around to later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At least part of their thinking is that the randomness of the game and the presence of the salary cap will generally even the competition out eventually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Honestly, even with all the unequal parts of the game\u2019s structure, I generally agree with them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Outside of Geelong and North Melbourne, clubs ebb and flow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some years, like in 2024, you\u2019ll get an incredibly close competition, and others like in 2025, you won\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The point is that the game sorts itself out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My suspicion is that this kind of thinking at least partly comes back to Buddy Franklin signing with Sydney when the league stacked the free agency deck so he would pick GWS, and then massively punished Sydney for operating within the rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/abcsport\/status\/1685857980409860096\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Then and there, the AFL learned that the clubs and players are going to do what they\u2019re going to do and over time results will eventually equalise.<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The AFL released its fixture in dribs and drabs last week, but now, finally, the full thing is out. Anyone need a trifold #AFL fixture for next year? pic.twitter.com\/wchgDV2lS4&mdash; calculon559 (@calculon559) November 14, 2025 After taking some time to mull it over, here are three key takeaways from the 2026 AFL fixture. The AFL is a real estate business My dad\u2019s side of the family came to this country from Greece in the early 70s. All the Greeks that came here worked hard and bought land pretty much as soon as they could. That, combined with free university education from&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":79615,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,598,344],"tags":[29,8260],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-79614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-special-interest","category-sports","tag-afl","tag-guywholikessport"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"18\/11\/2025","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79614"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79614\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87731,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79614\/revisions\/87731"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79615"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79614"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=79614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}