{"id":79508,"date":"2025-11-12T14:23:01","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T04:23:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=79508"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:29:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:29:37","slug":"the-recession-the-bills-had-to-have","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2025\/11\/the-recession-the-bills-had-to-have\/","title":{"rendered":"The Recession the Bills had to Have"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In 1990, Paul Keating famously described an incoming recession as \u201cthe recession we had to have\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I bet Brandon Beane and the Buffalo Bills are thinking the same thing, at least offensively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=F7LaFBcpJvM\">Fresh off a drubbing at the hands of the Dolphins<\/a>, the Bills are having the year offensively that they were meant to have last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2024 was meant to be the reset year after running into financial and existential football problems and deciding to let key offensive contributors Mitch Morse, Stefon Diggs, and Gabe Davis walk in the offseason as well as a number of ageing defensive starters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To offset the fact that the Bills lost their spread out passing game weapons, instead the Bills found a power run game and used it to great effect, and were able to stave off the rebuild.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bills were the second best offence in the league last year by EPA\/play because they were the third most efficient running team in the league, getting successful runs on 42% of early downs, fifth in the league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>James Cook, behind a renovated and dominant offensive line, had 1,200 scrimmage yards and 18 total touchdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1968856694760284238&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F11%2Fthe-recession-the-bills-had-to-have%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Because they were so efficient on early downs, they didn\u2019t need winners on the outside because Allen was good enough take advantage of the advantageous situations that Cook and the offensive line put them in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the season, Khalil Shakir had 25 more targets than any other Buffalo Bill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1982521073846665705&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F11%2Fthe-recession-the-bills-had-to-have%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the Bills did want a little extra outside juice as we saw when they traded a third round pick for Amari Cooper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1846258517390348659&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F11%2Fthe-recession-the-bills-had-to-have%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If the Bills offseason said there\u2019s a recession coming, the Cooper trade was a subsidy cheque to stave it off until later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cooper was generally disappointing in Buffalo and they let him walk, but you can see how they got to the point where they felt like they had to make the move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That run game was enough to drive the Bills to 13-4 and the AFC title game where they lost to the Chiefs again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This year, the Bills have leant further in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They are a part of the heavy personnel revolution in the NFL, with teams like the Rams and the Seahawks also using heavy personnel to play offence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bills have been in either 13, 21 or 22 personnel on 29% of their plays, top of the league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Rams and Seahawks are at 18% (the Rams have been in 13 on 40% of plays over the last month, however) and 31% respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1988348627111092261&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F11%2Fthe-recession-the-bills-had-to-have%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But the Rams and Seahawks are the <em>Pulp Fiction <\/em>to the Bills\u2019 <em>Boondock Saints<\/em>: a pale imitation on its face trying to do the same thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the Seahawks get heavy, they\u2019re throwing down the field to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and soon enough Rasheed Shaheed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the Rams get heavy, they can run the ball but also chuck it down the field to Davante Adams and Puca Nacua.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1988367768367022476&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F11%2Fthe-recession-the-bills-had-to-have%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>When the Bills get heavy, they\u2026 run the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whenever they do try and pass out of those heavy looks, their lack of outside winners or any vertical speed is so obvious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The passing game just feels <em>tight<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In large part that\u2019s because of personnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shakir is again their most targeted player, after him it\u2019s Keon Coleman, who was their first swing and miss at fixing their outside receiver problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1988312924730093851&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F11%2Fthe-recession-the-bills-had-to-have%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The only player who\u2019s open less often than Coleman was former New England Patriot N\u2019Keal Harry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then it\u2019s Dalton Kincaid and James Cook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s not a single vertical player in that list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s no reason for safeties to get deep or respect any deep passing game and that compacts the field dramatically, which is part of the reason the Bills had a 25% early down rushing success rate against Miami and were generally up against it against Miami.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It also shows in Allen\u2019s own numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Allen is having the second worst year of his career by air yards per completion, only to last year where they had the same problem but they had the benefit of the element of surprise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s no space for them to play in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While they\u2019re still the sixth best passing game by dropback success rate and EPA\/play, that\u2019s only because of Josh Allen\u2019s unique form of genius.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1987609729296703871&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F11%2Fthe-recession-the-bills-had-to-have%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=0glt2VBlXdw\">This Bills team feels like the scene between Gabby and Silvio in <em>The Sopranos, <\/em>where Gabby is so actively bad that it brings down the whole scene even when we know Stevie Van Zandt is a good actor.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bills tried to stave off the recession again at this trade deadline, apparently pursuing but failing to acquire Jaylen Waddle, knowing that\u2019s the kind of player they need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1987500557884391685&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F11%2Fthe-recession-the-bills-had-to-have%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>They also swung for an outside receiver with Keon Coleman in the 2024 draft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They know what they need, but they just haven\u2019t found it since they let Stefon Diggs walk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Josh Allen is so good that, for most of the season, a lack of outside juice just isn\u2019t going to matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their running game is still elite, and Allen is an elite offence by himself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But there are going to be games, especially for a team with February aspirations, where you are going to feel their obvious shortcomings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The game against Miami was an example of that,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we get deeper into the season, I expect we\u2019re going to see it more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brandon Beane tried to stave off the recession once. Can he succeed this time?<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In 1990, Paul Keating famously described an incoming recession as \u201cthe recession we had to have\u201d. I bet Brandon Beane and the Buffalo Bills are thinking the same thing, at least offensively. Fresh off a drubbing at the hands of the Dolphins, the Bills are having the year offensively that they were meant to have last year. 2024 was meant to be the reset year after running into financial and existential football problems and deciding to let key offensive contributors Mitch Morse, Stefon Diggs, and Gabe Davis walk in the offseason as well as a number of ageing defensive starters.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":79510,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8298,13,598,344],"tags":[8260,47],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-79508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-guywholikessport","category-american-football","category-special-interest","category-sports","tag-guywholikessport","tag-nfl"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"12\/11\/2025","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79508\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79508"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=79508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}