{"id":79508,"date":"2025-11-12T14:23:01","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T04:23:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=79508"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:29:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:29:37","slug":"the-recession-the-bills-had-to-have","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2025\/11\/the-recession-the-bills-had-to-have\/","title":{"rendered":"The Recession the Bills had to Have"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In 1990, Paul Keating famously described an incoming recession as \u201cthe recession we had to have\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I bet Brandon Beane and the Buffalo Bills are thinking the same thing, at least offensively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=F7LaFBcpJvM\">Fresh off a drubbing at the hands of the Dolphins<\/a>, the Bills are having the year offensively that they were meant to have last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2024 was meant to be the reset year after running into financial and existential football problems and deciding to let key offensive contributors Mitch Morse, Stefon Diggs, and Gabe Davis walk in the offseason as well as a number of ageing defensive starters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To offset the fact that the Bills lost their spread out passing game weapons, instead the Bills found a power run game and used it to great effect, and were able to stave off the rebuild.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bills were the second best offence in the league last year by EPA\/play because they were the third most efficient running team in the league, getting successful runs on 42% of early downs, fifth in the league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>James Cook, behind a renovated and dominant offensive line, had 1,200 scrimmage yards and 18 total touchdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">James Cook is inevitable. His 20th rushing TD since the start of the 2024 season \u2014 the most of anyone in the NFL<br><br>Man got paid and now he\u2019s showing out<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bills?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bills<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BillsMafia?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#BillsMafia<\/a>  <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IAdwN8u7r5\">pic.twitter.com\/IAdwN8u7r5<\/a><\/p>&mdash; alex brasky (@alexbrasky) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/alexbrasky\/status\/1968856694760284238?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 19, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Because they were so efficient on early downs, they didn\u2019t need winners on the outside because Allen was good enough take advantage of the advantageous situations that Cook and the offensive line put them in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the season, Khalil Shakir had 25 more targets than any other Buffalo Bill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Whenever fans say the Bills have no receivers, my simple response is they need to involve Khalil Shakir way more!<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OGvLyvjdSU\">pic.twitter.com\/OGvLyvjdSU<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Mike Bundt (@Mike_Bundt) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Mike_Bundt\/status\/1982521073846665705?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 26, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the Bills did want a little extra outside juice as we saw when they traded a third round pick for Amari Cooper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">We&#39;ve agreed to trade for WR Amari Cooper\u203c\ufe0f<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Ilbmxum2sf\">https:\/\/t.co\/Ilbmxum2sf<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BillsMafia?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#BillsMafia<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HUdMM3SaUM\">pic.twitter.com\/HUdMM3SaUM<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BuffaloBills\/status\/1846258517390348659?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 15, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If the Bills offseason said there\u2019s a recession coming, the Cooper trade was a subsidy cheque to stave it off until later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cooper was generally disappointing in Buffalo and they let him walk, but you can see how they got to the point where they felt like they had to make the move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That run game was enough to drive the Bills to 13-4 and the AFC title game where they lost to the Chiefs again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This year, the Bills have leant further in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They are a part of the heavy personnel revolution in the NFL, with teams like the Rams and the Seahawks also using heavy personnel to play offence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bills have been in either 13, 21 or 22 personnel on 29% of their plays, top of the league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Rams and Seahawks are at 18% (the Rams have been in 13 on 40% of plays over the last month, however) and 31% respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Personnel percentage through the entire season for those interested <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/6GoA1LCSs3\">pic.twitter.com\/6GoA1LCSs3<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Josh (@JoshiosTweets) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JoshiosTweets\/status\/1988348627111092261?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 11, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>But the Rams and Seahawks are the <em>Pulp Fiction <\/em>to the Bills\u2019 <em>Boondock Saints<\/em>: a pale imitation on its face trying to do the same thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the Seahawks get heavy, they\u2019re throwing down the field to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and soon enough Rasheed Shaheed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the Rams get heavy, they can run the ball but also chuck it down the field to Davante Adams and Puca Nacua.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Rams 13 personnel in 3 play sequence.<br><br>PA wheel route to  Ferguson w\/ great protection (including a double team by the TEs).<br><br>A true naked w\/ motion at the snap and routes working back (look at the 49ers LBs).<br><br>Zone run against two-high (that formation vs. that front) for a TD. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/R6ztQwBlkG\">pic.twitter.com\/R6ztQwBlkG<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Nate_Tice\/status\/1988367768367022476?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 11, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>When the Bills get heavy, they\u2026 run the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whenever they do try and pass out of those heavy looks, their lack of outside winners or any vertical speed is so obvious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The passing game just feels <em>tight<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In large part that\u2019s because of personnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shakir is again their most targeted player, after him it\u2019s Keon Coleman, who was their first swing and miss at fixing their outside receiver problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Charting which WRs earn target share by getting open<br><br>Keon Coleman has the highest tgt share with less than 1yd of separation<br><br>DJ Moore is getting criminally under utilized for how open he&#39;s been <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/W4dvVT84bV\">pic.twitter.com\/W4dvVT84bV<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Football Stats Guy (@StickToTheModel) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/StickToTheModel\/status\/1988312924730093851?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 11, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The only player who\u2019s open less often than Coleman was former New England Patriot N\u2019Keal Harry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then it\u2019s Dalton Kincaid and James Cook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s not a single vertical player in that list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s no reason for safeties to get deep or respect any deep passing game and that compacts the field dramatically, which is part of the reason the Bills had a 25% early down rushing success rate against Miami and were generally up against it against Miami.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It also shows in Allen\u2019s own numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Allen is having the second worst year of his career by air yards per completion, only to last year where they had the same problem but they had the benefit of the element of surprise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s no space for them to play in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While they\u2019re still the sixth best passing game by dropback success rate and EPA\/play, that\u2019s only because of Josh Allen\u2019s unique form of genius.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Josh Allen running in circles and then throwing for a first down because why not \ud83d\ude2d<br><br>(via <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NFL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@NFL<\/a>)<br><br> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/TnkfP9yXbN\">pic.twitter.com\/TnkfP9yXbN<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BleacherReport\/status\/1987609729296703871?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=0glt2VBlXdw\">This Bills team feels like the scene between Gabby and Silvio in <em>The Sopranos, <\/em>where Gabby is so actively bad that it brings down the whole scene even when we know Stevie Van Zandt is a good actor.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bills tried to stave off the recession again at this trade deadline, apparently pursuing but failing to acquire Jaylen Waddle, knowing that\u2019s the kind of player they need.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Bills were the high bidder for Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle and also tried to acquire then-Jets DL Quinnen Williams before Tuesday\u2019s trade deadline, per sources.<br><br>In both cases, their AFC East rivals ultimately gave Buffalo no help in its push for a 6th straight division title. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/GQrnJxm6dV\">pic.twitter.com\/GQrnJxm6dV<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TomPelissero\/status\/1987500557884391685?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>They also swung for an outside receiver with Keon Coleman in the 2024 draft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They know what they need, but they just haven\u2019t found it since they let Stefon Diggs walk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Josh Allen is so good that, for most of the season, a lack of outside juice just isn\u2019t going to matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their running game is still elite, and Allen is an elite offence by himself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But there are going to be games, especially for a team with February aspirations, where you are going to feel their obvious shortcomings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The game against Miami was an example of that,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we get deeper into the season, I expect we\u2019re going to see it more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brandon Beane tried to stave off the recession once. Can he succeed this time?<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In 1990, Paul Keating famously described an incoming recession as \u201cthe recession we had to have\u201d. I bet Brandon Beane and the Buffalo Bills are thinking the same thing, at least offensively. Fresh off a drubbing at the hands of the Dolphins, the Bills are having the year offensively that they were meant to have last year. 2024 was meant to be the reset year after running into financial and existential football problems and deciding to let key offensive contributors Mitch Morse, Stefon Diggs, and Gabe Davis walk in the offseason as well as a number of ageing defensive starters.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":79510,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8298,13,598,344],"tags":[8260,47],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-79508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-guywholikessport","category-american-football","category-special-interest","category-sports","tag-guywholikessport","tag-nfl"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"12\/11\/2025","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79508"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79508\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87732,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79508\/revisions\/87732"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79508"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=79508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}