{"id":79458,"date":"2025-11-10T12:14:05","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T02:14:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=79458"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:29:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:29:37","slug":"the-afl-has-a-plagiarism-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2025\/11\/the-afl-has-a-plagiarism-problem\/","title":{"rendered":"The AFL has a Plagiarism Problem"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=a6lzvWby9UE\">I started the new Vince Gilligan show <em>Pluribus <\/em>last night. The first two episodes are really good and it\u2019s nice to see Kim from <em>Better Call Saul <\/em>back.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The genius of <em>Pluribus <\/em>is that, like with <em>Breaking Bad, <\/em>Gilligan has clearly taken pieces from other shows that he likes and retrofitted them onto the world that he wants to live in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With <em>Pluribus, <\/em>at least early, I see a lot of <em>The Leftovers <\/em>and a bit of <em>Severance, <\/em>but it\u2019s not exactly the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s inspired by rather than copied from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=PKttjlC0LzU&amp;t=146s\">Gilligan did the same with <em>Breaking Bad: <\/em>borrowed the familiar, reshaped it, and made it new.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The AFL has no such genius.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=UCo0hSFAWOc\">the AFL is running the operation like the Michael McIntyre bit about simplifying language for the Americans so that they understand that a side walk is a place where you can walk on the side of the road.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They take an idea, they simplify it and apply it a little bit worse than the original was.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest example of this is the AFL\u2019s truly stupefying decision to bring in a wildcard round to expand the finals series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Clubs have been informed the AFL is introducing Wildcard Weekend for 2026. <br>7th v 10th<br>8th v 9th<br><br>To be played on the weekend of the current pre-finals bye.<br><br>Essentially the finals is expanding to a 10-team structure <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/7NewsMelbourne?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@7NewsMelbourne<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/7AFL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@7AFL<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Mitch Cleary (@cleary_mitch) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cleary_mitch\/status\/1987396206579097740?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The notion of a wildcard is copied exactly from the NBA and the NFL.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NFL has long had a wildcard structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the NFL, there are two conferences with four divisions each, and 32 total teams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their playoff process works so that the winners of each division are guaranteed a top-four playoff seed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From there, the next best three teams by record each get wildcard spots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This works because there will always be years where some divisions are stronger than others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=F4kJDW4aLLQ\">Like last year, the Lions won 15 games to top the NFC North but the Vikings won 14 and still managed to get a playoff spot.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Reasonably, winning 14 games should get you a playoff spot and the Vikings got one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The league that the AFL has copied most closely, however, is the NBA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the NBA, they recently introduced a play-in tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NBA has two conferences and 16 teams in each, with eight making the playoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2020, the league introduced a play-in tournament where the teams that finished between 7<sup>th<\/sup> and 10<sup>th<\/sup> play each other for the right to make the playoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sound familiar?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s the same, except it\u2019s not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the NBA, 7 plays 8 and 9 plays 10 first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The winner of the 7-8 matchup gets into the playoffs while the loser plays the winner of the 9-10 matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The higher seeds that had better regular seasons get a double chance in the NBA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/1116sen\/status\/1987661618734616747\">In the AFL, it\u2019s just going to be the winner of 7-10 gets in and the winner of 8-9 gets in.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The AFL is not like the NBA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You can\u2019t play two games in three days so why are we copying them as if there\u2019s no difference?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They\u2019ve copied it, but just made it a little bit worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=fvmPYhMtxlA\">If Andrew Dillon wrote <em>Pluribus<\/em>, he\u2019d just have written vaguely the same show with the guilty remnant called the guilt-ridden remainers and have had them smoking cigars and wearing black.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This change means you can reasonably ask what\u2019s the point of the season?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If 7 and 10 have the same chance of making the finals, why bother playing the six months leading into the weekend that used to be before finals?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More than that, the AFL already had a meaningless game problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hasn\u2019t this just made it worse? Or made it worse for the good teams at least, while the teams in the middle part of the bottom 8 are going to be alive longer?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You could maybe mount a bad faith argument that actually this rewards excellence because if you get in the top-6 you\u2019re safe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Average record of 10th place in the 18-team AFL (prorated to 23 games):<br><br>11.4 wins<br>11.5 losses<br>105%<br><br>Basically average.<br><br>This primarily punishes 7th\/8th as they have to win an extra game. A little odd when 8th just made a prelim but I don&#39;t hate rewarding 5th\/6th more I suppose. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/to7wYzklsM\">https:\/\/t.co\/to7wYzklsM<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Max Laughton (@maxlaughton) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/maxlaughton\/status\/1987396300393078984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 9, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Balderdash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why should Sydney last year, with their 12 wins and percentage of 97 have the same right to make the finals as Gold Coast with their 15 wins and percentage of 124?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It gets to a larger trend of the AFL justifying its annual trip to the States by generally copying American ideas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I can\u2019t remember the last structural innovation from the AFL that felt original.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=gdsUKphmB3Y\">That goes all the way down to Snoop Dog playing the Grand Final last year, three years after he did the Super Bowl.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You get the sense that if the NFL told the AFL to jump off a bridge, the only thing that would slow the fall is the drag from the erection they get from following American sports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m not telling you that this is going to ruin the AFL, I find it funny and embarrassing more than offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m also not going to tell you this is about money since everything is about money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The AFL exists to make money, and this will probably make it more money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not breaking news that the AFL wants to wring cash out of the product.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, I\u2019m not telling you that I\u2019m not going to watch these wildcard games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I will, and I\u2019ll probably enjoy them because single elimination is great.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All I\u2019m telling you is that I wouldn\u2019t trust the AFL to create a recipe, and they\u2019re lucky that the game is so good that all of their tinkering around the margins hasn\u2019t wrecked the on-field product yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet.<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I started the new Vince Gilligan show Pluribus last night. The first two episodes are really good and it\u2019s nice to see Kim from Better Call Saul back. The genius of Pluribus is that, like with Breaking Bad, Gilligan has clearly taken pieces from other shows that he likes and retrofitted them onto the world that he wants to live in. With Pluribus, at least early, I see a lot of The Leftovers and a bit of Severance, but it\u2019s not exactly the same. It\u2019s inspired by rather than copied from. Gilligan did the same with Breaking Bad: borrowed the&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":79459,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,598,344],"tags":[29,8260],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-79458","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-special-interest","category-sports","tag-afl","tag-guywholikessport"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"10\/11\/2025","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79458","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79458"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79458\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87733,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79458\/revisions\/87733"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79459"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79458"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79458"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79458"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=79458"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}