{"id":77089,"date":"2025-09-02T11:26:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T01:26:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=77089"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:29:43","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:29:43","slug":"the-premiership-metrics-as-told-by-superbad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2025\/09\/the-premiership-metrics-as-told-by-superbad\/","title":{"rendered":"The Premiership Metrics as told by Superbad"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Well, the season is finally over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After one of the worst seasons in recent memory, where the AFL imitated life and was racked by debilitating inequality, we have the rich guys playing off against each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s Elon v Sam Altman in this great southern land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1891170929398723024&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F09%2Fthe-premiership-metrics-as-told-by-superbad%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It should be pretty good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The nine teams that turned into eight and made the finals felt dramatically better than the nine teams that turned into ten and didn\u2019t make the finals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And now, finally, the good teams have no choice but to play each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To help us make sense of the upcoming finals series, we have the great and powerful Andrew Whelan from WheeloRatings\u2019 premiership metrics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1960943589287993391&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F09%2Fthe-premiership-metrics-as-told-by-superbad%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>To the uninitiated, the premiership metrics are a series of numbers that have been good at predicting premiers for the last 15 years, or four years depending on what numbers were available at a given time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Essentially, if you\u2019re in the top six in the competition in the home-and-away season across this subset of numbers, you are in the mix to win the premiership according to these numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1960943589287993391&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F09%2Fthe-premiership-metrics-as-told-by-superbad%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, all the maths whizzes will note that correlation doth not equal causation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Good for you <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=vk7eA4gVDno\">Rain Man, putting all that together<\/a>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m not saying the opposite, I\u2019m just saying that these numbers are a pretty good indicator of what has mattered recently in the AFL when it comes to winning at a high level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To make these numbers more interesting than they otherwise would be, we\u2019re running through them with quotes from the Jonah Hill and Michael Cera classic, <em>Superbad.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=zJ5I84jQNog&amp;ab_channel=OwenYoung\"><strong>\u201cI\u2019m over here in my unit, isolated and alone, eating my terrible tasting food and I gotta look over at that. It looks like the most fun I\u2019ve ever seen in my life\u201d<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 Geelong, Adelaide<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>These numbers don\u2019t factor in Izak Rankine being out, which probably precludes Adelaide from making the Grand Final.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But that\u2019s not the point of this column.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The point is to look at the numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And based on the numbers, every other team is looking enviously at Evan and his partner making tiramisu while they wash and dry like they\u2019re single mothers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Cats and Crows are the only two teams that have top four units when they both have and don\u2019t have the ball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Geelong is a particular juggernaut with the ball and for territory, sitting no worse than fourth in any of the metrics that matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a>Unsurprising given they have the renowned leader and new All-Australian captain Jeremy Cameron kicking bags for fun!<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1961032274247299245&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F09%2Fthe-premiership-metrics-as-told-by-superbad%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Adelaide\u2019s better unit, however, is surprising. <a>It\u2019s not their star-studded forward line, though that is pretty good sitting fourth in the league<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1961022983600067011&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F09%2Fthe-premiership-metrics-as-told-by-superbad%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, their defence is the second best in footy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That feels insane, given their personnel, but maybe it isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Maybe the All-Australian selectors and I are late to the party on Worrell and Keane being the new Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1961184516153778573&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F09%2Fthe-premiership-metrics-as-told-by-superbad%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In any case, these two teams are clearly the envy of the competition by the numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=pOnQRZNbCXw&amp;ab_channel=BestMovieQuote\"><strong>\u201cUhhhh\u2026it\u2019s 10:33\u201d<\/strong><\/a><strong> \u2013 Hawthorn<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Okay so in the section above, I ignored a personnel concern because that\u2019s not the point of the column.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m ignoring the point of the column here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Like Fogel staring at a whale tail, Hawthorn can\u2019t believe where they are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Every other finals team has at least one top 25 player, Hawthorn doesn\u2019t have a single top 50 player playing this finals series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1952635988515459253&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F09%2Fthe-premiership-metrics-as-told-by-superbad%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And yet, in a true triumph of coaching genius, they are one of the teams that is \u201cin the window\u201d according to the numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They were found out a bit against Brisbane in Round 24, where their lack of an alpha dog midfielder was exposed by Dunkley, McCluggage, and Ashcroft. I suspect they\u2019ll be found out again come finals time, left fumbling for a response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, they could tell us all what time it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=8u5pxZgHnW8&amp;ab_channel=BestMovieQuote\"><strong>\u201cWait you changed your name to McLovin?\u201d<\/strong><\/a><strong> \u2013 Collingwood, Brisbane<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hawaii is a good state to pick. Looks like the license number is right. Wow this really looks legit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All looking good for the boys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then they look and Fogel has picked McLovin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They were so close to being able to buy booze, and yet they were so far!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All because Fogel went with the name of an Irish R&amp;B singer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s Collingwood and Brisbane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both teams have one elite side of the ball and one relatively mediocre side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the Pies, their elite side of the ball is their defence and it proves that science is a liar sometimes as I wrote earlier this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"It&#039;s Always Sunny In Philadelphia | Season 8 Ep. 10: Mac Evolution Highlight | FXX\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/GiJXALBX3KM?start=3&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>While their defensive numbers are the best in the league, their system is fragile and their strong numbers are propped up by a dominant early part of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But again, the point is the numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the Lions, it\u2019s their attack and territory game which are third best in the competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1951582548485947818&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F09%2Fthe-premiership-metrics-as-told-by-superbad%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s a shame about the other side of the ball for both.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=mWZ_RldwVWw&amp;ab_channel=LastCup\"><strong>\u201cEnjoy f**king Jules.\u201d \u201cI WILL.\u201d<\/strong><\/a><strong> \u2013 Gold Coast<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold Coast is pumped to be there for the first time, just like Seth would be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But this is them wanting to lose their virginity before college because you don\u2019t want girls to think you suck d**k at f**king p***y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s a practice run, and they should be overjoyed to be there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But they\u2019ll be better next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By the numbers, this is a mid-team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fifth best with the ball, sixth best without. Nothing elite, nothing awful. Just okay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But with another year in the Hardwick system, with Dan Rioli back, and with the possibility of adding Charlie Curnow, the Suns will almost certainly be better for having had the run this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1947622475678027887&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F09%2Fthe-premiership-metrics-as-told-by-superbad%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=a29X2AdgWNg&amp;ab_channel=MrMhR\"><strong>\u201cYou ever seen a v*****a by itself? Not for me.\u201d<\/strong><\/a><strong> \u2013 GWS, Fremantle<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>They\u2019re in it, they have good players.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On paper, they should be contenders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the numbers say, despite their obvious appeal, not for me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At least not on their own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>GWS\u2019 superpower is scoring from the back half, a number in which they led the league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1934125092004581744&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F09%2Fthe-premiership-metrics-as-told-by-superbad%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>They were the only team in the AFL to score more points from the back half than from the front half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The premiership metrics say that doesn\u2019t matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fremantle\u2019s superpower was killing ball movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They were third at each of stopping scoring from the back half, stopping teams moving the ball from D50 to F50, and stopping teams going from their back half to a score<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Again, the metrics say it doesn\u2019t matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conventional wisdom says these are important things to be good at.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But if that\u2019s all you\u2019re good at?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The premiership metrics say \u201cnot for me.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, the season is finally over. After one of the worst seasons in recent memory, where the AFL imitated life and was racked by debilitating inequality, we have the rich guys playing off against each other. It\u2019s Elon v Sam Altman in this great southern land. \u201cI wish he would just compete by building a better product,\u201d Sam Altman says of Elon Musk.\u201cProbably his whole life is from a position of insecurity, I feel for the guy&#8230; I don&#39;t think he&#39;s, like, a happy person.\u201d pic.twitter.com\/VrW26ZurKL&mdash; unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 16, 2025 It should be pretty good. The nine teams that&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":77090,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,598,344],"tags":[29,8260],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-77089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-special-interest","category-sports","tag-afl","tag-guywholikessport"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"02\/09\/2025","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77089","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77089"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77089\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77090"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77089"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77089"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77089"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=77089"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}