{"id":75410,"date":"2025-07-04T11:20:26","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T01:20:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=75410"},"modified":"2025-07-04T11:20:26","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T01:20:26","slug":"2025-state-of-origin-game-3-tips-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2025\/07\/2025-state-of-origin-game-3-tips-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 State Of Origin Game 3 Tips & Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

State of Origin is always at its best when there is a decider and that is what we have in 2025 with Accor Stadium in Sydney the venue to <\/span>determine<\/span> this year\u2019s winner. Laurie Daley\u2019s Blues go in big favourites to make it two straight series wins but Queensland will take plenty of confidence into the match not only on the back of their win in Perth but in the return to the Origin stage of Queensland legend Josh Papalii.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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New South Wales Blues v Queensland Maroons (Wednesday, 8:05pm)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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Origin heads to a decider for the second straight year despite New South Wales\u2019 domination in all key stats. A 10-2 penalty count and some other key calls certainly put the Maroons in a position to claim the second game in Perth and they held on grimly for the W.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While the Blues were certainly unfortunate to be on the receiving end of such a big penalty count, they can take plenty of blame for being wasteful. They had 55% of possession and ran for 158 metres and 111 post-contact metres more yet could not overcome Queensland. The Maroons certainly broke more tackles and missed fewer than in the first game and got the edge in play-the-ball quickness but it must be said poor goalkicking and general panic at the end caused by some poor personnel decisions killed New South Wales.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And as is always the case with Laurie Daley, he has refused to make any changes. After the lazy penalty from Stefano Utoikamanu, it is astonishing he kept his spot.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There is absolutely no doubt that the Blues have more talent. If it pulls together, they should win. But talent is only part of the equation and the Maroons took plenty from Perth and have made two hugely positive changes with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow shifting to fullback and Josh Papalii returns from representative retirement in a coup that will boost Queensland morale no end.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The numbers certainly push for the Maroons to cover. Queensland love a decider with seven wins in the last nine. The Maroons have won four of the six deciders at Accor over the last decade.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This has all the hallmarks of a close game so the plus is the play.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the better bets this Origin is the under with the total set at a very high 43.5. Three of the last five have hit 48 points but this total in a decider is big. The decider last year managed just 18 points while four of the last five deciders have tallied 34 or fewer. Seven of the last nine Game 3s have finished on 34 or fewer. The under can be bet with confidence.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow plays his 10th Origin but his first at his preferred fullback position. He has thrived on the Origin stage and has been in scintillating form for the Dolphins. If the Maroons are to win, it will likely be in a low scoring affair highlighted by moments of individual brilliance. The Hammer has just that. With 11 tries in nine Origins and with more touches incoming, he is a tremendous tryscoring bet.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Brian To\u2019o has eaten of late with six tries in his last four Origins including a hat-trick in defeat in Perth. He has also scored four tries in seven games for Penrith this season. The Blues are comfortable going both ways but To\u2019o has featured plenty of New South Wales and typically finds in big games.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n