{"id":75182,"date":"2025-06-24T08:57:41","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T22:57:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=75182"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:29:50","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:29:50","slug":"the-north-melbourne-conundrum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2025\/06\/the-north-melbourne-conundrum\/","title":{"rendered":"The North Melbourne Conundrum"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>North Melbourne already has four wins this season, including two in a row heading into another Tasmanian civil war, this time with Hawthorn rather than over a stadium.<\/p>\n<p>The last time they won four games in a season was 2021, so going by wins and losses, this year is already a success.<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1936293880703414749&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F06%2Fthe-north-melbourne-conundrum%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>But looking under the hood, I have some worries about the way North Melbourne has allocated its resources.<\/p>\n<p>It feels like a list and a game style \u2013 replete with midfielders and contest beasts \u2013 that is not suited for the modern game that prioritises damage, pace, and space.<\/p>\n<p>It feels like what would have happened if <em>The Martian <\/em>had come out last month.<\/p>\n<p><em>The Martian <\/em>is a distinctly Obama-era movie where China, Russia, and America all came together to get Matt Damon out of space.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Crucial Scene Translated from Chinese - Taiyang Shen - The Martian 4k\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/1i4bzg7tlMk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Do you reckon anyone would buy those three working together for the greater good today?<\/p>\n<p>North\u2019s build similarly feels of a different time.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not like Clarkson and the Roos have no plan, however.<\/p>\n<p>Since 2021, North have drafted the following midfield or midfield potential players with top 30 picks: Horne-Francis, Sheezel, Wardlaw, George, McKercher, and O\u2019Sullivan.<\/p>\n<p>Add guys like LDU, Powell, Simpkin, Scott, and Xerri and you can see a clear priority.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re following the Bulldogs model of high-skill, high-volume ball winners blanketing the ground and dominating contest.<\/p>\n<p>If that\u2019s the goal, it\u2019s working.<\/p>\n<p>Over the last five games, North is top-five at getting first possession, total clearances, contested ball, and scores from stoppage.<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1936282870206644304&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F06%2Fthe-north-melbourne-conundrum%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Against Carlton, they were dynamic when it came to getting the ball from inside stoppage to out with inside beasts like LDU feeding the McKercher-types who provided juice and spread to worry the Blues.<\/p>\n<p>But they have robbed Peter to pay the midfield, which is to say they haven\u2019t spent huge capital at either end of the ground.<\/p>\n<p>Since 2021, the only key position talent they have drafted with a top 30 pick are Zane Duursma, Will Dawson, and Matt Whitlock.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s almost the opposite to Richmond\u2019s rebuild. The Tigers drafted just one pure midfielder in Josh Smilie last year, focusing on key position talent and the mid\/forward players that are so crucial to the modern game.<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1900128591150497883&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F06%2Fthe-north-melbourne-conundrum%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Despite that, North\u2019s forward line built around Nick Larkey is relatively strong on a personnel level because of good development rather than investment.<\/p>\n<p>Paul Curtis is pushing for All-Australian while Cam Zurhaar is having a career-best year.<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1936278783826292949&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F06%2Fthe-north-melbourne-conundrum%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Alongside them, Jack Darling has been everything they could have hoped for, and Jacob Konstanty has been a solid pressure forward.<\/p>\n<p>Over the last five games, North has been a relatively efficient forward line, kicking a goal from about 23% of their inside 50s &#8211; seventh in footy.<\/p>\n<p>Though part of that is that the ball doesn\u2019t spend much time inside 50.<\/p>\n<p>Relatedly, they\u2019ve also been a relatively okay territory team.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re 15<sup>th<\/sup> in time in front half over the last five games at 47%.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s bad, but if they retain that for the season, that will be the best they have been at that stat since at least 2021.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re similarly placed near, though not at the bottom for stopping transition.<\/p>\n<p>Again, that is progress.<\/p>\n<p>However, neither seems to be the priority based on the way North sets up.<\/p>\n<p>The backline is a different conversation.<\/p>\n<p>North\u2019s key back posts against Carlton were filled admirably by Toby Pink, who tries hard but isn\u2019t overly talented despite giving Charlie Curnow a bath, and Griffin Logue who is talented but doesn\u2019t try that hard.<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1936404483954880875&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F06%2Fthe-north-melbourne-conundrum%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Man for man, they are much less talented than the forward line. The fact that the defence has held up as well as it has is more a question of structure than coaching, in the inverse way to the forward line.<\/p>\n<p>The bigger issue is the way the ball moves out of their back line.<\/p>\n<p>Again, it feels of a different time.<\/p>\n<p>They are so risk averse leaving their back half.<\/p>\n<p>When the Roos do run, they look dangerous and athletic which should be the goal with a team of midfielders. But they do it all too seldom.<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1936292975643865287&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F06%2Fthe-north-melbourne-conundrum%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>That risk-aversion kills them as the Roos are among the least threatening kicking teams in the AFL by threat rating.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019d be like if Jackson Lamb refused to use his Slow Horses as bait.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re robbing themselves of what should be a strength.<\/p>\n<p>Caleb Daniel is the only Kangaroo with a 007-style licence to take risks and he\u2019s been closer to Johnny English this year, having his worst disposal-to-turnover ratio season since 2019.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Johnny English Strikes Again | Aston Martin \u2013 Exclusive Clip\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nzE-fSh9gVw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Daniel was supposed to be improved transition in a can, but one many can only do so much. Especially with so little overlap run and a general aversion to playing on unless the game is going perfectly.<\/p>\n<p>Even with Daniel, North is still the league\u2019s worst transition team.<\/p>\n<p>So, North has prioritised contest and midfield depth above all else.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s fine, but a decade of stats tells us that, to win at the highest level, those contest numbers aren\u2019t the most important focus areas.<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1934220737478574119&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F06%2Fthe-north-melbourne-conundrum%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The key things are territory, transition, and stopping transition.<\/p>\n<p>Brisbane\u2019s contest and clearance dominance shows that the two don\u2019t have to be mutually exclusive, but you have to be good at territory and transition.<\/p>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1930917546032840987&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2025%2F06%2Fthe-north-melbourne-conundrum%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Maybe North expects footy to go back to the future and become a contest game.<\/p>\n<p>They might even be right, there have been 97 ruck contests per game this year, which would be the most since 2015.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"2015 Toyota AFL Grand Final - Hawthorn v West Coast Highlights - AFL\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/rbWDly9hspc?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>But if you expect the priorities of modern footy to remain substantially the same, North needs to do it like Brisbane is currently doing it.<\/p>\n<p>Maybe they can.<\/p>\n<p>After all Fagan is a Clarkson disciple.<\/p>\n<p>But it\u2019s a hard way to live, especially if Harris Andrews doesn\u2019t walk through the door at Arden Street.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>North Melbourne already has four wins this season, including two in a row heading into another Tasmanian civil war, this time with Hawthorn rather than over a stadium. The last time they won four games in a season was 2021, so going by wins and losses, this year is already a success. But looking under&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":66616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,598,344],"tags":[8260],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-75182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-special-interest","category-sports","tag-guywholikessport"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":null,"md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"24\/06\/2025","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75182","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75182"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75182\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66616"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75182"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75182"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75182"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=75182"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}