{"id":74780,"date":"2025-06-02T09:24:56","date_gmt":"2025-06-01T23:24:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=74780"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:29:52","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:29:52","slug":"nitpicking-collingwood","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2025\/06\/nitpicking-collingwood\/","title":{"rendered":"Nitpicking Collingwood"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2024\/07\/nitpicking-the-sydney-swans\/\">I wrote this column about Sydney in Round 16 last year, when they were 13-2<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The fault I identified for Sydney was that, in both of their losses, their opponents took more than 100 marks.<\/p>\n<p>That benchmark indicated that if it wasn\u2019t a Swans game \u2013 chaotic and frenetic \u2013 then they\u2019d lose.<\/p>\n<p>They were 1-6 when a team took more than 100 marks and otherwise 19-1.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions Highlights | Grand Final, 2024 | AFL\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/d6tkMo2ToZk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>This year, to this point in the season, there\u2019s another clear benchmark: Collingwood at 10-2.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re not the best at any one thing, but they\u2019re elite at almost everything.<\/p>\n<p>They have two key strengths that make them footy\u2019s best team.<\/p>\n<p>First, it\u2019s their front half game.<\/p>\n<p>They are second in time in forward half and give up the fewest scoring chains.<\/p>\n<p>Watching teams trying to work their way through the Collingwood press is as painful as watching Ricky Gervais fumble through the prayer group in <em>Extras<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Extras (2005)\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/KTM7L6ZQiCQ?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>By the fifth handball, we\u2019re in \u201ccondoms\u2026do we need them\u201d territory.<\/p>\n<p>Every decision digs the hole deeper.<\/p>\n<p>And if a team just wants to hack the ball out like Hawthorn did, then Moore and Howe just pick it off and launch Daicos or Houston like they\u2019re launching RPGs in <em>Call of Duty<\/em>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Josh Daicos joined us post game as our Tempur Sleep Well Player of the Night. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EQAM9r0aYe\">pic.twitter.com\/EQAM9r0aYe<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; AFL Nation (@AFLNation) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFLNation\/status\/1928445045918634237?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 30, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Then, when they get the turnover, they make teams pay. Over the last five games, they lead footy in scores from turnover and are fourth in forward-half scores.<\/p>\n<p>Off turnover, their service inside 50 is impeccable, raising the level of a forward line with brilliant small to mediums \u2013 Hill, Elliott, Schultz, Hoskin-Elliott, McCreery \u2013 but average key forwards.<\/p>\n<p>Collingwood is first for scoring shots per inside 50 and second in marks inside 50.<\/p>\n<p>Lipinski and Hill have been especially sharp.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re Collingwood\u2019s two most threatening kicks and their top kick retention players, despite being outside their top-10 for expected retention.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;There&#39;s the fly from Bobby Hill!&quot; \u2708\ufe0f<\/p>\n<p>Bobby takes a classic hanger in classic Bobby style! <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9CkaeP6XUX\">pic.twitter.com\/9CkaeP6XUX<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Collingwood FC (@CollingwoodFC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CollingwoodFC\/status\/1928416823730721012?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 30, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re biting off a lot but chewing it easily.<\/p>\n<p>Their other superpower, which I mentioned earlier, is structure more broadly.<\/p>\n<p>Their structure is built on two things.<\/p>\n<p>Firstly, it\u2019s support in aerial contests and getting outnumbers in the back half.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udea8 JEREMY HOWE HANGER \ud83d\udea8<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLPiesDees?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLPiesDees<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bdf5erc19g\">pic.twitter.com\/bdf5erc19g<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; AFL (@AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFL\/status\/1800070044681949480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 10, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Secondly, it\u2019s about corridor denial.<\/p>\n<p>The Pies clog the middle and force teams to go around, which partly explains why they rank 13th in stopping D50 to F50 transition.<\/p>\n<p>Even if they don\u2019t win the ball back, they still limit damage by funnelling opponents into hard shots.<\/p>\n<p>Collingwood\u2019s opponents have been the second most inaccurate in footy this season \u2014 and it\u2019s no accident.<\/p>\n<p>The Pies concede the second-lowest expected score per shot, and the lowest in general play.<\/p>\n<p>When teams do manage to exit their defensive 50 cleanly, if they\u2019re good, they can get the ball forward.<\/p>\n<p>But even then, if they generate a shot, chances are it\u2019ll be a poor one.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=DZ9bht5H2p4&amp;ab_channel=TheFunFlicks\">Collingwood is footy\u2019s <em>Sophie\u2019s Choice<\/em><\/a> team across the board, forcing opponents to make difficult decisions constantly and making them wrong every time.<\/p>\n<p>Despite all that, they have lost twice.<\/p>\n<p>First in Opening Round to GWS and secondly against Geelong in Round 8.<\/p>\n<p>Unlike the Sydney losses last year, the two losses don\u2019t have much in common at first glance.<\/p>\n<p>GWS essentially outran <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/watch\/?v=644756307964959\">Collingwood\u00a0 and prompted now hilarious questions about whether Nick Daicos<\/a> \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=nnIispfXto8&amp;ab_channel=TonyMcMontana\">whom I guarantee is on the Derek from <em>Step Brothers <\/em>diet<\/a> \u2013 had put in the work over the offseason.<\/p>\n<p>Geelong was a bit more surgical with their game, particularly in the first quarter when they tore Collingwood apart, but on balance the Pies comeback probably should have resulted in a win.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Last Two Minutes: Collingwood v Geelong Cats | Round 8, 2025 | AFL\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/vMpkl0LosUE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>There is one link between the two games however.<\/p>\n<p>In Opening Round, Finn Callaghan played what is probably still the best game of his career.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Finn Callaghan:<br \/>33 disposals\ud83d\udd25<br \/>9 contested\ud83d\udd25<br \/>12 score involvements\ud83d\udd25<br \/>2 goals\ud83d\udd25<br \/>170 Supercoach\ud83d\udd25<br \/>GIANTS WIN\ud83d\udd25<\/p>\n<p>N. Daicos:<br \/>21 disposals\ud83d\udca9<br \/>0 contested (equal career high) \ud83d\udca9<br \/>3 score involvements\ud83d\udca9<br \/>0 goals\ud83d\udca9<br \/>65 Supercoach\ud83d\udca9<br \/>COLLINGWOOD LOSE\ud83e\udd2d<\/p>\n<p>Night and Day. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ULNQ21tWoZ\">pic.twitter.com\/ULNQ21tWoZ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Thommo \ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddfa (@BigOlThommo) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BigOlThommo\/status\/1898632277929713833?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 9, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s a powerhouse, linking mid, who\u2019s sheer running power helped GWS to fight fire with fire and burn their defensive press and corridor dominance because he\u2019s a racehorse. Callaghan had 730 metres gained and 19 handball receives.<\/p>\n<p>In Round 8, Bailey Smith, a similar level of power runner had a similar game, also helping Geelong to move between defence and attack through that Collingwood press because, again, he\u2019s a freak athlete.<\/p>\n<p>Smith had 715 metres gained and 17 handball receives.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A goal to go with 32 touches in his first game in the hoops \ud83d\ude3b<\/p>\n<p>Bailey Smith is BACK.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLCatsFreo?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLCatsFreo<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NC3HduGYPW\">pic.twitter.com\/NC3HduGYPW<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; AFL (@AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFL\/status\/1900775516056977408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>What does it mean?<\/p>\n<p>The Pies are an old team that is mostly excellent because of structure and smarts rather than athleticism.<\/p>\n<p>You can\u2019t beat them on that level, it\u2019s a team with at least one footy PhD on every line.<\/p>\n<p>Their two losses show that you can beat them with <em>juice.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=RZAkOfxlW6g&amp;ab_channel=Movieclips\">If Collingwood plays footy like the Hannibal Lecter cart<\/a> &#8211; constraining teams with structure &#8211; these athletes are the Houdinis that can break free by being better movers<\/p>\n<p>So, who has the necessary freak factor?<\/p>\n<p>Obviously, Geelong and GWS.<\/p>\n<p>Smith leads the league in metres gained.<\/p>\n<p>Behind him are Dayne Zorko and Nas Wanganeen-Milera, who are different types of players.<\/p>\n<p>Nobody is averaging 700 metres gained on the season.<\/p>\n<p>Lowering the bar slightly, Ed Richards has five games over 600 metres gained this year \u2014 all with 10+ handball receives \u2013 including their close loss to Collingwood.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">High impact, maximum damage.<\/p>\n<p>Where does Ed Richards sit among the top tier of midfielders this season? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Ypr6LeuALw\">pic.twitter.com\/Ypr6LeuALw<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; 7AFL (@7AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/7AFL\/status\/1927268528744206725?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 27, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s the kind of explosive athlete that could give Collingwood problems.<\/p>\n<p>Among finals contenders are guys like Noah Anderson and Jordan Dawson also fit the bill, but Richards is the one.<\/p>\n<p>Barring injury, I\u2019d pick Collingwood in any Grand Final blindly.<\/p>\n<p>Except maybe the Dogs, who have the requisite freak factor to potentially pull one out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I wrote this column about Sydney in Round 16 last year, when they were 13-2. The fault I identified for Sydney was that, in both of their losses, their opponents took more than 100 marks. That benchmark indicated that if it wasn\u2019t a Swans game \u2013 chaotic and frenetic \u2013 then they\u2019d lose. They were&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":74782,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,598,344],"tags":[8260],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-74780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-special-interest","category-sports","tag-guywholikessport"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":null,"md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"02\/06\/2025","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74780"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74780\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87772,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74780\/revisions\/87772"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74782"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74780"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=74780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}