{"id":74508,"date":"2025-05-21T13:13:18","date_gmt":"2025-05-21T03:13:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=74508"},"modified":"2025-05-26T15:18:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-26T05:18:09","slug":"2025-afl-round-11-tips-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2025\/05\/2025-afl-round-11-tips-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 AFL Round 11 Tips & Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

No team remains winless after both North Melbourne and West Coast recorded wins in round 10.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It wasn\u2019t the easiest round of football from a betting perspective but my tips still went 4\/8 (1 void) and a $10 bet on each betting play would have returned you $60.30.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Round 11 kicks off at GMHBA Stadium as the Cats host the Dogs and the match of the round takes place at the MCG on Saturday afternoon when Hawthorn (4th) do battle with the defending premiers Brisbane (2nd).<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There are plenty of pivotal games taking place right across the weekend and many opportunities to build a bank.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

My full AFL Round 11 Preview can be found below.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Geelong Cats vs Western Bulldogs<\/div>\n
Oliver Dempsey Anytime Goalkicker @ $1.30<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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Both of these sides have proven themselves genuine contenders through the first ten rounds of football and this clash beckons as a very important four points in the top four aspirations come September.<\/p>\n

After a shootout loss to the Brisbane Lions in round five, the Western Bulldogs have won four of their last five by an average winning margin of 71 points.<\/p>\n

The inclusion of contested possession bull and clearance king Matthew Kennedy to compliment Tom Liberatore has meant captain Marcus Bontempelli can play a more outside mid role and the change has been reaping benefits for them.<\/p>\n

Geelong has proven their best is good enough for another deep run in September, evident by wins over Fremantle by 78 points, Collingwood, the Crows in Adelaide and Hawthorn.<\/p>\n

But for almost every impressive performance they have a poor one.<\/p>\n

The Saints got them in round two, Carlton at the MCG in round seven and they blew a big lead at the Gabba when the defending premiers ran over the top to win by nine in the rescheduled round three clash.<\/p>\n

Their young midfielders continue to develop with each week but they are still reliant on the rejuvenated Brownlow Medalist Patrick Dangerfield who is sidelined with a hamstring injury.<\/p>\n

Only Tom Green (GWS) averages more disposals per game than Bailey Smith in the entire league and all eyes will be on the cheeky Geelong recruit against his former side and he remains a pivotal piece to the Geelong game plan.<\/p>\n

The Dogs have been scoring at will in recent weeks and the Cats can ill afford to have another shoot out like they did against the Giants a couple of weeks ago.<\/p>\n

The market suggests this is a difficult game to predict from a head to head point of view and I agree.<\/p>\n

One market that I don\u2019t think has been corrected is the likelihood of young gun Oliver Dempsey to hit the scoreboard.<\/p>\n

He has kicked two goals in his last six straight games and always finds a way to be in the right spot around goals.<\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Cats v Dogs<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n
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Essendon vs Richmond <\/div>\n
Double Markets – Essendon \/ Under 165.5 Total Points @ $2.50<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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Dreamtime at the \u2018G is one of the most anticipated events on the AFL calendar during the second week of Sir Doug Nichols round on Friday night.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Bombers head into this blockbuster in 10th spot with a record of 5-4 but the third worst percentage of any team in the competition.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite that seemingly poor stat, I view it as a positive!<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

They have corrected themselves from last year and while they aren\u2019t scoring as freely as they have in the past, they have become quite a tough team to score against aside from a rampant Western Bulldogs attacking outfit last week!<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Richmond has defied many people\u2019s expectations in 2025 so far and have recorded three wins thanks in large part to the form of their experienced players.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Having those older players is crucial to a successful rebuild and the younger players certainly stood up in opening round at the MCG when they beat Carlton in front of a huge crowd.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This is simply a must win for Essendon and they can deny Richmond scoring opportunities through their pressure and keeping control of the football.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Bombers v Tigers<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n
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Carlton vs GWS Giants\u00a0<\/div>\n
Tom Green Anytime Goalkicker @ $2.90\u00a0<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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If I had to pick the two most inconsistent teams in the entire AFL it would be GWS and Carlton.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Punting is hard enough but when those two sides match up it makes it almost impossible from a head to head view so let\u2019s stay away from that market!<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Giants are capable of scoring big points when they get things their own way yet have put up some incredibly low scores recently.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Their only win in the last five rounds came in a high scoring affair in Geelong and they managed just 34 points against Adelaide and 61 last week in a bad loss to Fremantle.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Charlie Curnow and Harry Mckay are again forming an issue up front for their opponents but the entry into the forward 50 continues to be a problem for the Blues.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

No one has touched the football more than Tom Green in season 2025 and he has snagged a goal in his last four straight games.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In lieu of any other appealing markets in a drastically difficult and unpredictable game this seems a value play.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Blues v Giants<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n
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Hawthorn vs Brisbane Lions<\/div>\n
Either Team To Win By Less Than 24.5 Points @ $1.83<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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Another blockbuster at the MCG on Saturday afternoon between two genuine premiership contenders who currently sit inside the top four.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Brisbane Lions were cruising along on top of the ladder until a couple of poor performances against North Melbourne (draw) and Melbourne (loss at home).<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hawthorn has had narrow defeats to Geelong and Gold Coast either side of three big wins against bottom eight sides.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Hawks have seven wins so far in season 2025 but only one has been against a current top eight side.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

They have won their last five straight games against the Brisbane Lions by a margin of 1-39 points which is quite impressive considering just how consistently good Brisbane has been in recent years.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In saying that, the Lions have covered the line in their last 10 straight when entering the game as underdogs.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Hawks v Lions<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n
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North Melbourne vs Collingwood\u00a0<\/div>\n
Double Markets – Collingwood \/ Under 175.5 Total Points @ $2.10\u00a0<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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Collingwood sit atop the AFL ladder through 10 rounds of football faltering against only GWS in opening round and Geelong in round eight.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

They continue to be a tough team to score against with their possession style of play and the way they bring the ball forward through the wings and flanks.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In fact they lead the league in points scored against them with just 703.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

North Melbourne banked two points against the defending premier Brisbane two weeks ago and then recorded their second win of the season against Richmond last weekend.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Roos have covered the line in their last four straight games against Collingwood and this is another great test for them against one of the premier teams in the competition.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Roos v Pies<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n
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Fremantle vs Port Adelaide\u00a0<\/div>\n
Fremantle To Win @ $1.35<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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Another clash between two of the most inconsistent teams in the AFL will take place on Saturday night in Perth.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evidence of Fremantle\u2019s at their worst was a 10 point loss to Melbourne in round 6 and a 10 goal defeat to St Kilda in round eight.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But they proved they can match it with the best with a three goal win over Adelaide in round seven and a 34 point victory over GWS last weekend in Sydney.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Port Adelaide come into this challenge having lost their last three in a row and although they have been against some top opponents, it\u2019s the way in which they have lost that is most concerning.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A 90 point loss to the Dogs was followed by a Showdown defeat in Adelaide and they were dismantled by Geelong at home last weekend to the tune of 76 points.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

They have covered the line in their last four games against Fremantle at Optus Stadium but I\u2019m finding it difficult to see them turning their form around quick enough this time.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Dockers v Power<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n
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Adelaide Crows vs West Coast Eagles\u00a0<\/div>\n
Izak Rankine To Kick 2+ Goals @ $2.30<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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The Crows have been the surprise packets of season 2025 so far and are genuine contenders to win the premiership.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A trio of tall forwards in Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe are a headache for any defensive outfit they face but they have been complimented nicely with plenty of attacking options when they go forward.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Eagles secured their first points of the season by beating St Kilda at home last weekend, a nice reward for effort in what has been another difficult season for players and fans alike.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Adelaide head into this game as the biggest favourites of round 10 and I can\u2019t see a way in which they lose this contest.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is a massive line to cover (-50.5) but I do think they will put a big score up here.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Izak Rankine is in fine form and has booted seven goals in his last five games and can join in the action.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Crows v Eagles<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n
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Melbourne vs Sydney Swans\u00a0<\/div>\n
Under 167.5 Total Points @ $1.88\u00a0<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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Many believed that Melbourne would be a threat heading into this season but the Dees lost their first five games putting them a long way behind the eight ball.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Proving it is a long season and that we shouldn\u2019t go early with our opinions, they have now won four of their last five including a rare win at the Gabba against the Lions last Sunday afternoon.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

They face another team that has turned their form around in recent weeks and the Sydney Swans come into this game having won two of their last three.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It was the return of form by their top tier players that saw them skip away from Carlton at home last weekend.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Isaac Heeney was the highest rated player on the ground with 38 disposals and two goals, but Chad Warner also gathered 30 touches and kicked two as well as 19 possessions and 48 hit outs from Brodie Grundy.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Swans have covered the line in seven of their last eight games against Melbourne at the MCG but I\u2019m not convinced of who wins this game from a head to head perspective with little trust just yet in either side.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Demons v Swans<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n
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St Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast Suns\u00a0<\/div>\n
Both Teams To Score 70 Points @ $1.68\u00a0\u00a0<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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The Saints have shown glimpses they are a side that can play finals football this season but they have now lost four of their last five and towering down the AFL ladder to 13th.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Most alarming have been pitiful performances in the last two weeks including a 15 point loss to Carlton and a truly awful response against the previously winless Eagles in Perth last Sunday.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Damien Hardwick has the Gold Coast Suns humming along nicely and they are just one win away from top spot and it should be noted they have a game in hand.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s not the first time the Suns have garnered some early season hype, but many have a feeling that this season may be a little different to previous.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

They\u2019ve beaten two genuine contenders in the last two weeks in the form of the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In seasons past this would loom as a danger game for them having to travel under the roof at Marvel and I\u2019m gun shy in backing them.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I think both teams will have their moments during the contest and both are capable of putting points on the board.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Saints v Suns<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

No team remains winless after both North Melbourne and West Coast recorded wins in round 10.\u00a0 It wasn\u2019t the easiest round of football from a betting perspective but my tips still went 4\/8 (1 void) and a $10 bet on each betting play would have returned you $60.30.\u00a0 Round 11 kicks off at GMHBA Stadium…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":74510,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,344],"tags":[],"hub_post_cat":[8162],"class_list":["post-74508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-sports"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":null,"md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"21\/05\/2025","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74508\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74508"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=74508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}