{"id":74453,"date":"2025-05-20T09:10:56","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T23:10:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=74453"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:29:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:29:54","slug":"diagnosing-the-sydney-swans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2025\/05\/diagnosing-the-sydney-swans\/","title":{"rendered":"Diagnosing the Sydney Swans"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Swans have come to Dr LikesSport.<\/p>\n<p>This time last year, they were 9-1 with a percentage of 155 and had just beaten Carlton by nine goals.<\/p>\n<p>This year, they\u2019re 4-6 with a percentage of 99 and required Isaac Heeney to strap on the cape in the second half to beat a worse Carlton team by 16 points.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Isaac Heeney tonight:<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfc9 38 disposals (career-high)<br \/>\ud83d\udcaa 18 contested possessions (equal career-high)<br \/>\ud83e\uddf9 10 clearances (equal second career-high)<br \/>\ud83d\ude4c 2 goals<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/9WWOS?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#9WWOS<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLSwansBlues?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLSwansBlues<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/6tR2oKhsE1\">pic.twitter.com\/6tR2oKhsE1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Footy on Nine (@FootyonNine) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FootyonNine\/status\/1923353700203958336?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 16, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They know that a win over Carlton in the toughest watch since <em>The Zone of Interest <\/em>is not the cure.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Back in the winner\u2019s circle \ud83e\udd1d <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bloods?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bloods<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/MxyVQCBazf\">pic.twitter.com\/MxyVQCBazf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Sydney Swans (@sydneyswans) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sydneyswans\/status\/1923356638129336675?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 16, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They need a diagnosis.<\/p>\n<p>They have three major issues.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>1. Personnel<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>The personnel issues are twofold and inform their other problems.<\/p>\n<p>Firstly, their extensive injury list.<\/p>\n<p>Heading into Round 10, the following first-choice players were unavailable: Errol Gulden, Logan McDonald, Lewis Melican, Callum Mills, Tom Papley.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Errol Gulden the latest star player injured in a meaningless pre-season game. Awesome. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qACf4JY7gk\">pic.twitter.com\/qACf4JY7gk<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; BRZY (@outbreezyWC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/outbreezyWC\/status\/1895405664857706538?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 28, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Trying to play especially without Papley and Warner for Sydney is like Tony Soprano trying to operate without Silvio.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The Sopranos - Tony And Silvio Talk About Ralph\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/KIjYvfZtFiA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>They might not be the most important players to the side, but they are crucial to its proper functioning.<\/p>\n<p>Papley and Gulden provide forward half ingenuity and back half run.<\/p>\n<p>For a team like Sydney that lacks key position talent on either side of the ball, losing that is losing everything \u2013 that\u2019s the second problem.<\/p>\n<p>Even with Joel Amartey back against Carlton (for the short-term), they have no aerial presence forward of the ball.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Joel Amartey was involved in this incident with Jordan Boyd.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLSwansBlues?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLSwansBlues<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Tx7kzlEiOj\">pic.twitter.com\/Tx7kzlEiOj<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; AFL (@AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFL\/status\/1923354626209833265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 16, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Similarly, their key defensive stocks are so thin that Nick Blakey had to play on Harry McKay for periods, further stifling their run.<\/p>\n<p>Key positions were a problem last year, but everything else was so good they covered it up.<\/p>\n<p>These injuries are rubbing salt into an existing wound.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>2. Loss of Identity<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>What do Sydney do well in 2025?<\/p>\n<p>I don\u2019t know either.<\/p>\n<p>If you asked me that question last year, I could have answered it easily.<\/p>\n<p>They were footy\u2019s best chaos team.<\/p>\n<p>The only way to beat them last year was to take control of a game, and not many teams could do it.<\/p>\n<p>Each time Sydney gave up more than 101 marks they were 0-6.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions Highlights | Grand Final, 2024 | AFL\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/d6tkMo2ToZk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>They were otherwise 19-1.<\/p>\n<p>Teams had to be perfect to get through the chaotic Sydney press, and it\u2019s hard to be perfect.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ylwMWpbv5Fk&amp;ab_channel=FlashbackFM\">The ability to induce chaos like they\u2019re The Joker<\/a> meant that the Swans were the best at stopping opponents going from D50 to a score, and the best at scoring from the forward half.<\/p>\n<p>This year in the same metrics, they\u2019re 12<sup>th<\/sup> and 14<sup>th<\/sup> respectively and opponents no longer have to be perfect to win.<\/p>\n<p>Part of that is not having Papley, but part of it is being less intense than they were last year \u2013 averaging 20 less pressure acts per game.<\/p>\n<p>They still defend high up the field and try to get pressure on the ball as it comes out \u2013 and they did have some success in the second half against Carlton getting goals from the front half \u2013 but in this area, the Swans are a tribute band.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Justin McInerney was involved in this incident with Jack Silvagni.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLSwansBlues?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLSwansBlues<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Kaqnk4IW0N\">pic.twitter.com\/Kaqnk4IW0N<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; AFL (@AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFL\/status\/1923329475472760894?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 16, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The Rolling Clones to last year\u2019s Rolling Stones.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>3. Forward line efficiency<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>This one is more symptom than cause.<\/p>\n<p>Last year, the Swans were so good from the front half and at generating turnovers that they were able to get a plethora of players decent shots despite having subpar actual forwards.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Chad Warner with a piece of individual brilliance to get us on the scoreboard early \ud83e\udd29<\/p>\n<p>Goal of the Week, presented by <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/originenergy?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@originenergy<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qoIky6TYb1\">pic.twitter.com\/qoIky6TYb1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Sydney Swans (@sydneyswans) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sydneyswans\/status\/1768851945983516754?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 16, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They also moved the ball brilliantly from the back half, changing angles and keeping defences guessing.<\/p>\n<p>Their system raised the floor of their scoring ability.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">ERROL GULDEN STEPS UP!<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLSwansPies?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLSwansPies<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Bqdmes763Y\">pic.twitter.com\/Bqdmes763Y<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; AFL (@AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFL\/status\/1821884787998552400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 9, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They were like a show where the script was so good that the actors are kind of irrelevant \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Cy9KkuPmQ_s\">like the first season of <em>Succession<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The Swans were second best at getting a scoring shot when they went inside 50 and at kicking a goal when they went inside 50, no team had more goalscorers per game<\/p>\n<p>This year, because their pressure is down and because they have so many good players not playing, they\u2019re 16<sup>th<\/sup> at both kicking a goal and getting a scoring shot when they go inside 50, eighth at taking the ball from the back half to a score, all while having 1.5 fewer goal scorers every game.<\/p>\n<p>Everything is worse.<\/p>\n<p>It feels like every time they get to 80m out, they\u2019re content with a shallow entry and a prayer that maybe Peter Laddams or Joel Amartey will channel their inner Wayne Carey and take a pack mark. Maybe even kick a goal.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s an impossible way to live.<\/p>\n<p>So, is it terminal?<\/p>\n<p>This year, yes.<\/p>\n<p>While they\u2019d be 6-4 by expected win, part of the reason they\u2019re not converting goals that they should that they don\u2019t have the horses to convert, and it\u2019s difficult to know what you can expect from players like Papley and Gulden after long-term injuries.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Tom Papley at his best \ud83e\udd75 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/luifPUAR0C\">pic.twitter.com\/luifPUAR0C<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Sydney Swans (@sydneyswans) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sydneyswans\/status\/1897938674886525119?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 7, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Going forward, however, those expected score numbers are positive.<\/p>\n<p>They still do a lot right.<\/p>\n<p>While they still have Warner and Heeney playing well, and now that they\u2019ve returned Tom McCartin back to defence, if they can find a key forward somewhere I expect them to come back and be a force again next season.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">And the winner of the Goodes-O\u2019Loughlin Medal is&#8230; Isaac Heeney \ud83c\udfc5<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLSwansBlues?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLSwansBlues<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLDeadly?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLDeadly<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hwTh7KQuec\">pic.twitter.com\/hwTh7KQuec<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; AFL (@AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFL\/status\/1923358399388893588?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 16, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>I hear there\u2019s one in the West that might be looking for a new home?<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has reportedly taken a key step towards reviving his AFL career. <\/p>\n<p>DETAILS \ud83d\udc49 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/QlFT6Vn3gf\">https:\/\/t.co\/QlFT6Vn3gf<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/r4WKd4iDvF\">pic.twitter.com\/r4WKd4iDvF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Fox Footy (@FOXFOOTY) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FOXFOOTY\/status\/1921792832752283937?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 12, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>If they can get him or some other key position help, get their guys healthy again, and get their pressure game back up I see no reason why Sydney can\u2019t threaten again next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Swans have come to Dr LikesSport. This time last year, they were 9-1 with a percentage of 155 and had just beaten Carlton by nine goals. This year, they\u2019re 4-6 with a percentage of 99 and required Isaac Heeney to strap on the cape in the second half to beat a worse Carlton team&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":74454,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,598,344],"tags":[29,8260,957],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-74453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-special-interest","category-sports","tag-afl","tag-guywholikessport","tag-sydney-swans"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":null,"md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"20\/05\/2025","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74453"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74453\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87775,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74453\/revisions\/87775"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74453"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=74453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}