{"id":73952,"date":"2025-04-30T09:43:15","date_gmt":"2025-04-29T23:43:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=73952"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:29:57","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:29:57","slug":"afl-fraud-watch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2025\/04\/afl-fraud-watch\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL Fraud Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We\u2019re about two months into the season and the ladder has started to crystallise and equalise, with everyone playing seven games other than Gold Coast and Essendon because of the Opening Round hurricane.<\/p>\n<p>Given that we\u2019re all pretty much equal, it\u2019s a good time to have a look at the ladder and check on three teams that might be frauds when it comes to their premiership chances.<\/p>\n<p>The rules are simple. You have to:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>be in the eight; and<\/li>\n<li>have a fatal flaw that makes you a George Santos level fraudster.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Remember, they\u2019re not just jailing George Santos. <\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re jailing an American hero, a gay pioneer, an academic, a Wall Street financier, a Brazilian drag queen, a varsity athlete, someone called Anthony Devolder, a Broadway producer, an OnlyFans creator &#8211; next could be you<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Jack (@GayLaVie) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GayLaVie\/status\/1915811142347227598?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3><strong>GWS <\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong><em>Fatal flaw: <\/em><\/strong><em>Lack of time in forward half<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Given their list, I can\u2019t believe GWS is here, but they have to be.<\/p>\n<p>When they\u2019re on, they\u2019re Bill Belichick\u2019s girlfriend scary.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;We&#39;re not talking about this.&quot; <\/p>\n<p>Jordon Hudson interrupts Bill Belichick&#39;s CBS Sunday interview when he&#39;s asked how they met \ud83d\ude33 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LvncZ88UVY\">pic.twitter.com\/LvncZ88UVY<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Complex Sports (@ComplexSports) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ComplexSports\/status\/1916550138090189006?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 27, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>But with the amount of pressure they put on their defence and their commitment to the tsunami above all else, it\u2019s hard to be on often enough.<\/p>\n<p>Only North Melbourne, West Coast, and Richmond have less time in forward half than GWS. Those same three clubs and St Kilda are the only teams with a worse inside 50 differential.<\/p>\n<p>The Giants don\u2019t play the volume game well enough.<\/p>\n<p>With speedy, high-pressure players like Harvey Thomas, Darcy Jones, and to a lesser extent Brent Daniels, that\u2019s unforgiveable.<\/p>\n<p>Even though they have Sam Taylor, Jack Buckley and Connor Idun in defence, and their defence is incredibly efficient giving up the fewest goals and scoring shots per inside 50, there\u2019s too much on their plates.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">We can confirm Sam Taylor is now on speaking terms with Jack Buckley following this incident on the weekend. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YoBo0fyJbn\">pic.twitter.com\/YoBo0fyJbn<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; GWS GIANTS (@GWSGIANTS) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GWSGIANTS\/status\/1789843311525552141?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 13, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>At a certain point, weight of numbers will show.<\/p>\n<p>It certainly did against the Bulldogs last week.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Buku Khamis that is glorious \ud83d\ude0d<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLGiantsDogs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLGiantsDogs<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9ZiGxWOBpP\">pic.twitter.com\/9ZiGxWOBpP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; AFL (@AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFL\/status\/1916099098123391037?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They want to live the hard way.<\/p>\n<p>A repeat entry won\u2019t make your biceps smaller, Adam Kingsley.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Adelaide <\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong><em>Fatal flaw: <\/em><\/strong><em>SLOW up forward <\/em><\/p>\n<p>In a sense, the Darcy Fogarty injury may end up being a bit of a blessing in disguise for Adelaide, not that we saw it against Fremantle.<\/p>\n<p>The Crows fatal flaw is that, ahead of the ball, they are SLOW when Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Walker, and Curtin all play.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Riley Thilthorpe&#39;s scans are in! <\/p>\n<p>How many weeks will the Coleman contender miss? <\/p>\n<p>STORY \ud83d\udc49 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/t8QoNTXi1c\">https:\/\/t.co\/t8QoNTXi1c<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aZSxq2dJHQ\">pic.twitter.com\/aZSxq2dJHQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; CODE AFL (@codeaflau) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/codeaflau\/status\/1916392233441591334?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 27, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a bit of a Tom Brady situation where his lunatic approach to football was his greatest strength but also cost him Gisele Bundchen.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"de\" dir=\"ltr\">Tom Brady, Gisele B\u00fcndchen hire divorce lawyers, sources say <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SnEhg7BKig\">https:\/\/t.co\/SnEhg7BKig<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/H6M6seRf7Q\">pic.twitter.com\/H6M6seRf7Q<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Page Six (@PageSix) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PageSix\/status\/1577325674628538371?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 4, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Although honestly, he should have known when she was working on her \u201cjiu jitsu\u201d at 9:30 on a Friday night.<\/p>\n<p>Those talls make them one of the best mark and goal per inside 50 teams, but one of the worst when the ball hits the deck.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re 15<sup>th<\/sup> in forward 50 ground ball gets and 14<sup>th<\/sup> in inside 50 tackles.<\/p>\n<p>Josh Rachele, not a known pressure player, should help the ground ball numbers after coming in for Fogarty, but they can\u2019t win without more juice at the fall of the ball.<\/p>\n<p>In a sense, they\u2019re the inverse GWS.<\/p>\n<p>Adelaide is middle of the pack for time in forward half and inside 50 differential because they set their structure relatively high up the ground, but don\u2019t have the horses to make anything of it while GWS has the horses but not the structure.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Hawthorn <\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><strong><em>Fatal flaw: <\/em><\/strong><em>No superpower<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Regretfully, I have no choice but to conclude that Sam Mitchell is a genius.<\/p>\n<p>To have this group sitting 5-2 and fourth on the ladder is remarkable.<\/p>\n<p>The game that crystallised his genius was, to me, the wind-affected game in Tasmania against GWS in Round 3.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Hawthorn v GWS Giants Highlights | Round 3, 2025 | AFL\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/sH3Bac0P4Zo?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>With the wind, the first two quarters indicated that one end was the scoring end and one end was impossible to score on.<\/p>\n<p>Coming out of half-time, Hawthorn was kicking into the non-scoring end but managed to flip the script.<\/p>\n<p>Hawthorn essentially didn\u2019t kick the ball as they came out of defence in that third quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, they flooded the defence at every opportunity and used those numbers to chain handballs out.<\/p>\n<p>And then, when they got it deep, they sweated on GWS\u2019 run and handball game and kept numbers in the corridor to nullify GWS and Finn Callaghan\u2019s run to force repeat entries and take away GWS\u2019 one and only wood.<\/p>\n<p>It was a bit Oleksandr Usyk-y, who takes the first part of fights to gather information on opponents then, always comes home with a wet sail.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">uysk got robbed from knocking out fury. this is a guaranteed 10-8 so idk how tf a judge can give fury the fight given uysk\u2019s dominance at the start and end of the fight<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/FuryUsyk?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#FuryUsyk<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/maoOjvuQFm\">pic.twitter.com\/maoOjvuQFm<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; vrsaljak\ud83c\udded\ud83c\uddf7 (@vrsaljak) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/vrsaljak\/status\/1791979142541672925?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 18, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>But Usyk has superpowers. His movement and gas tank are impossible for a heavyweight, so is his hand-speed.<\/p>\n<p>Hawthorn doesn\u2019t have that, they lack star-power especially with Will Day out.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">2 minutes 11 seconds of pure Will Day Cinema \ud83e\udd29 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HvlHvOHUnx\">pic.twitter.com\/HvlHvOHUnx<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Hawthorn FC (@HawthornFC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HawthornFC\/status\/1898200247001829825?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 8, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>That was true last year as well, but the Hawks played unsustainably good footy at the end of last year.<\/p>\n<p>This year, they\u2019ve generally been more middle of the pack and are well down on all of their scoring numbers compared to last year.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Turnover Game: Round 7<br \/>&#8211; Warning: sample size<br \/>&#8211; Carlton\u2019s defence<br \/>&#8211; Fremantle making strides <br \/>&#8211; The pack is forming <\/p>\n<p>18 of the last 19 premiers have ranked in the top 3 for net score differential <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3DOjf9vMWn\">pic.twitter.com\/3DOjf9vMWn<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; James Ives (@JamesIves17) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JamesIves17\/status\/1916643861302333636?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 28, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The biggest indicator is forward half-scoring. Last year the Hawks kicked 45 points per game from the forward half.<\/p>\n<p>This year, with a group of small forwards that aren\u2019t playing as well, they\u2019re down to 38 points.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">CALSHER DEAR YOU SUPERSTAR <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rNM2vSmtVh\">pic.twitter.com\/rNM2vSmtVh<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Leonardo Puglisi (@Leo_Puglisi6) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Leo_Puglisi6\/status\/1832017260862660849?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 6, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>This is a team of B+ talent elevated by an A+ coach.<\/p>\n<p>Systems win seasons but players win finals \u2013 ask Hawthorn about Willie Rioli in last year\u2019s semi-final.<\/p>\n<p>Hawthorn doesn\u2019t have the players.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We\u2019re about two months into the season and the ladder has started to crystallise and equalise, with everyone playing seven games other than Gold Coast and Essendon because of the Opening Round hurricane. Given that we\u2019re all pretty much equal, it\u2019s a good time to have a look at the ladder and check on three&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":73954,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,598,344],"tags":[29,8260,36],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-73952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-special-interest","category-sports","tag-afl","tag-guywholikessport","tag-special-interest"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":null,"md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"30\/04\/2025","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73952","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73952"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73952\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87780,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73952\/revisions\/87780"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/73954"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73952"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73952"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73952"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=73952"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}