{"id":71704,"date":"2025-02-21T09:52:13","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T23:52:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=71704"},"modified":"2026-07-03T10:30:06","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T00:30:06","slug":"what-if-melbourne-is-good","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2025\/02\/what-if-melbourne-is-good\/","title":{"rendered":"What if Melbourne is Good?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Conventional wisdom can go too far and be far wrong.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">From Galileo to Ben Affleck, history loves a comeback. In the early 2000s, Affleck was written off for flops like <i>Gigli<\/i> and tabloid drama with J.Lo.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">He stepped behind the camera for <i>Gone Baby Gone<\/i>, then made his full return as a leading man in <i>The Town<\/i>.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The Town (2010) - Robbery Scene\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/gtURsfmm5nQ?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Could this season be Melbourne\u2019s The Town?<\/p>\n<p>Even though Simon Goodwin is inflexible, this is still a talented team who haven\u2019t lost what made them good previously.<\/p>\n<p>Like Affleck, they also added some pieces in their fallow period that they can use to their advantage.<\/p>\n<p>For Affleck it\u2019s added grizzliness. For Melbourne, it\u2019s Caleb Windsor.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">In case you missed Caleb Windsor football \u263a\ufe0f<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/DemonSpirit?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#DemonSpirit<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LvLrFme48f\">pic.twitter.com\/LvLrFme48f<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Melbourne Demons (@melbournefc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/melbournefc\/status\/1880506619513172172?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 18, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Even in a year from hell in 2024, Melbourne\u2019s biggest strength remained elite.<\/p>\n<p>Despite Steven May and Jake Lever each missing at least a month, the Dees still allowed the fewest goals, the fewest scoring shots, and third-fewest shots per inside 50.<\/p>\n<p>Even with some slippage from May, particularly when he had to move, he\u2019s still a good player and a beast in 1v1 situations. With Lever just 29 and Harrison Petty playing defence again, this is still a \u201cwhose car we taking\u201d group of henchmen in the back six.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The Town - Who&#039;s car are we gonna take? Best Scene\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/5IefgTWWR2Q?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Now come the problem areas for the Dees in 2024, and where improvement should come in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Between 2021 and 2023, Melbourne was never worse than top-6 in clearances, contested ball, or inside 50s.<\/p>\n<p>Last year, the Dees were tenth in contested ball, 16th in clearances, and 14th in inside 50s.<\/p>\n<p>That feels like exception more than rule.<\/p>\n<p>Max Gawn, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, and Jack Viney are all still there. Then you add Trent Rivers, Caleb Windsor, and sixth overall pick Harvey Langford and I see a good midfield forming now and moving forward.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">HARVEY\u2026. \ud83d\ude24\ud83d\ude24\ud83d\ude24 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YYlevZHvop\">pic.twitter.com\/YYlevZHvop<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Melbourne Demons (@melbournefc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/melbournefc\/status\/1884398228814156255?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 29, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Obviously, there are still question marks \u2013 Petracca and Oliver.<\/p>\n<p>For Petracca, the question is whether he\u2019s done a Dougie and lost the stomach for it.<\/p>\n<p>For Oliver the question is less existential. Did he do another Jordan Belfort impression this offseason?<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">SuperCoach expert <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tim_michell?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@tim_michell<\/a> has overhauled his list of must-have players for 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Is Clayton Oliver locked into your squad?<\/p>\n<p>Full list &gt;&gt; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/x9rK7PmtFv\">https:\/\/t.co\/x9rK7PmtFv<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/SuperCoach?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#SuperCoach<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFL?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFL<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/nmzIrJq2Ij\">pic.twitter.com\/nmzIrJq2Ij<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; SuperCoach AFL (@SuperCoach) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SuperCoach\/status\/1889479534753488984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 12, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The word is that he\u2019s training the house down, but I\u2019m old enough to remember<a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com.au\/afl\/afl-2020-jake-stringer-essendon-best-preseason-ever-bombers-injuries\/news-story\/07ef0938e98ecffe92931905a4a20a05\"> when Jake Stringer did that every year<\/a>, only to rediscover the pie.<\/p>\n<p>Even if they\u2019re down from their usual selves, their lack of output last season should mean that whatever slack they leave is picked up by players who have already experienced live bullets. The big one is Rivers, who looks primed to break out.<\/p>\n<p>This could be a bit of a Tracy Jordan trying to recreate \u201csmooth move Ferguson\u201d type midfield, but there are enough points of difference where they aren\u2019t just reheating their own nachos.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Smooth Move Ferguson - 30 Rock\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/e-aojMqGNnc?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Now for the forward line.<\/p>\n<p>Even in the good times, this was bad.<\/p>\n<p>From 2021-2023, they were seventh, fourteenth and fourteenth for goals inside 50 and still finished top 4.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not a compliment, but it does shows how good Melbourne can be without a functional forward line.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s a relief because the forward line doesn\u2019t figure to be much better this year, with one possible exception.<\/p>\n<p>If Goodwin decides against ruining Jacob van Rooyen by making him the second ruck and lets him play as a key forward, I could see him being their first real avenue to key forward production since the 2021 Ben Brown Event.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">North Melbourne told Ben Brown to explore his options last season.<\/p>\n<p>He&#39;s now a premiership player. \ud83d\ude4f <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/akSVsh33MK\">pic.twitter.com\/akSVsh33MK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; 7AFL (@7AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/7AFL\/status\/1441741276932554769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 25, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>JvR took about two marks per game inside 50 last year and has kicked 1.5 goals a game for his career. Last year he got 2.5 shots per game, which is nothing to sneeze at for a second-year player.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"ht\" dir=\"ltr\">Jacob van Rooyen goal vs Carlton multi-call (ABC\/AFL Nation\/MMM\/3AW) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLDeesBlues?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLDeesBlues<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kexWTGkdth\">pic.twitter.com\/kexWTGkdth<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Lace out (@laceoutofficial) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/laceoutofficial\/status\/1664806529051271168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 3, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>You can\u2019t build the house on the assumption that van Rooyen will kick 100 goals, but with more supply, Kozzie Pickett at his feet, Bayley Fritsch as chief support, there is a middle-of-the-pack unit in the range of outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s particularly true if Petracca spends time as a forward.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Chandler &gt; Fritsch &gt; Petracca &gt; GOAL! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLDeesDogs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLDeesDogs<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iEPYVqixll\">pic.twitter.com\/iEPYVqixll<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Melbourne Footy (@MelbourneFooty) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MelbourneFooty\/status\/1769218643043529140?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 17, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>I still have issues with Simon Goodwin\u2019s inflexibility, particularly going forward. I cannot fathom why he\u2019s as attached to repeated bombs inside 50 to no key forwards as he is.<\/p>\n<p>But even if they don\u2019t improve their entries, which Goodwin has shown no capacity to do, he always has an elite defensive structure and has stars around the ball again.<\/p>\n<p>The forward line will probably still be bad, but the other two lines should be good enough for Melbourne to significantly improve.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re probably not going to win the premiership, but couldn\u2019t they have an L.A. Rams type of season?<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Rams tied an NFL playoff record with 9 sacks against the Vikings \ud83d\ude24 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/r2iucUAv01\">pic.twitter.com\/r2iucUAv01<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; PFF (@PFF) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PFF\/status\/1879021186434338887?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 14, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Couldn\u2019t they finish sixth and be the definition of the team that you don\u2019t want to see in week 1 of the finals?<\/p>\n<p>I could see it.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><b><i>Like what you read from our hard-hitting columnist?<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><b><i>Follow\u00a0<\/i><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/guywholikesspo1\"><b><i>@Guywholikessport<\/i><\/b><\/a><b><i>\u00a0on Twitter or check out his\u00a0<\/i><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/guywholikessport.wixsite.com\/guywholikessport\"><b><i>FULL BLOG HERE\u00a0<\/i><\/b><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Conventional wisdom can go too far and be far wrong. From Galileo to Ben Affleck, history loves a comeback. In the early 2000s, Affleck was written off for flops like Gigli and tabloid drama with J.Lo. He stepped behind the camera for Gone Baby Gone, then made his full return as a leading man in The Town. Could this season be Melbourne\u2019s The Town? Even though Simon Goodwin is inflexible, this is still a talented team who haven\u2019t lost what made them good previously. Like Affleck, they also added some pieces in their fallow period that they can use to&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":71707,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,344],"tags":[29,9778,1329,8260,1206,420,3094],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-71704","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-sports","tag-afl","tag-afl-2025","tag-australian-rules","tag-guywholikessport","tag-melbourne","tag-melbourne-demons","tag-opinion"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":null,"md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"21\/02\/2025","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71704","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71704"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71704\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87801,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71704\/revisions\/87801"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71704"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71704"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71704"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=71704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}