{"id":67107,"date":"2024-08-22T09:49:14","date_gmt":"2024-08-21T23:49:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=67107"},"modified":"2024-08-22T15:43:49","modified_gmt":"2024-08-22T05:43:49","slug":"who-should-make-the-finals-based-on-justice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2024\/08\/who-should-make-the-finals-based-on-justice\/","title":{"rendered":"Who Should Make The Finals Based on Justice"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s no crying in baseball and there\u2019s no justice in football, we all know that.<\/p>\n<p>But heading into the final week of what has been one of the most even AFL seasons I can ever remember, there are nine teams trying to squeeze into eight spots.<\/p>\n<p>The top five \u2013 Sydney, Port Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, and Brisbane \u2013 are all going to make it in some order so they aren\u2019t interesting to talk about this week.<\/p>\n<p>More interesting battle is between the teams sitting six through nine \u2013 the Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle.<\/p>\n<p>Both Hawthorn and the Bulldogs could either finish in the top-4 or out of the eight entirely, Carlton and Fremantle are currently separated by two points in Carlton\u2019s favour and three percentage points in Fremantle\u2019s favour.<\/p>\n<p>It could not be tighter.<\/p>\n<p>Mathematically the Pies could still make it but given percentage I have a better chance of marrying Sydney Sweeney.<\/p>\n<p>Max Laughton of Fox Footy does a great job analysing the data in this column to outline what needs to happen for each team to make it so that\u2019s not what I\u2019m doing here. I\u2019m going to rank each of the four teams playing for those last three spots based on who deserves to make it.<\/p>\n<p>What are the criteria?<\/p>\n<p>I was thinking about this, and I came up with this:<br \/>\n\u2022 Game style,<br \/>\n\u2022 Recent form, and<br \/>\n\u2022 Chance to actually win the whole thing.<\/p>\n<p>Based on that, this is how I rank the four teams vying for those last three spots.<\/p>\n<h2>1. Hawthorn<\/h2>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"sv\" dir=\"ltr\">ROLL TIDE <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/z4LExUcsQo\">pic.twitter.com\/z4LExUcsQo<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Hawthorn FC (@HawthornFC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HawthornFC\/status\/1825082700786725051?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 18, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>It is not outrageous to say that Hawthorn is currently playing the best footy in the AFL. They have won four out of their last five games. In the wins, their smallest margin of victory was 63 points.<\/p>\n<p>Their only loss came against the also scalding hot GWS by two points, and it only happened because GWS seem to be the charcoal and orange embodiment of Tim Tebow circa 2011.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of game style, there are few teams more visually compelling than Hawthorn.<\/p>\n<p>Their kicking game is elite and expansive. They\u2019re tough. They\u2019re smart.<\/p>\n<p>This is a team that knows they don\u2019t have an elite key forward (yet \u2013 Calsher Dear looks like he\u2019s going be something special), so they have a mosquito fleet with Nick Watson, Jack Ginnivan, Dylan Moore, Blake Hardwick and they play to those strengths.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Check out the highlights from Calsher Dear&#39;s Telstra AFL Rising Star nomination game \ud83c\udf7e\ud83c\udf7f <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HMGNflXB3N\">pic.twitter.com\/HMGNflXB3N<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Hawthorn FC (@HawthornFC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HawthornFC\/status\/1825453902738948142?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 19, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The mosquito fleet has them top of the pops in scores from both turnover and scores from the forward half, while the kicking game has them third in scores from the back half.<\/p>\n<p>Happy Gilmore putts like Tiger Woods.<\/p>\n<p>If Will Day is hurt and misses the finals that\u2019s a possible disaster, but we don\u2019t know enough yet to count Hawthorn out.<\/p>\n<p>Game style? Tick. Recent form? Smouldering. Chance to win the whole damn thing? Real.<\/p>\n<h2>2. Western Bulldogs<\/h2>\n<p>If Hawthorn is the class of this group of teams, then the Bulldogs are a clear number two.<\/p>\n<p>If GWS has the best forward line in the AFL, the Bulldogs are second best.<\/p>\n<p>Every week one of Aaron Naughton, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, or Sam Darcy can take a game and rip it to shreds.<\/p>\n<p>And they\u2019re ably supported by a collection of gun smalls in the form of Rhylee West and Cody Weightman.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Happy Monday \ud83d\udc99 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mKpOmA8TZP\">pic.twitter.com\/mKpOmA8TZP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Western Bulldogs (@westernbulldogs) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/westernbulldogs\/status\/1825310429952045140?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 18, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Take that forward line, and add to it the fact that Marcus Bontempelli and Adam Treloar are having career best years, Ed Richards has emerged, Tom Liberatore is still a gun, and Tim English is playing well and you have a genuine bottom half of the eight contender.<\/p>\n<p>The issue has always been the back line, but since Rory Lobb has moved back there this has been the third best scoring defence in the AFL.<\/p>\n<p>Any chance there\u2019s a method to Bevo\u2019s madness, Kane?<\/p>\n<p>Prior to the loss to Adelaide, the Bulldogs won four straight all against finals contenders (at the time) including wins against Sydney and Geelong.<\/p>\n<p>They did it on the back of a dominant forward half and contested ball game while being the second most efficient team at turning inside 50s into shots.<\/p>\n<p>The numbers also ADORE the Bulldogs.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83c\udfc6AFL Premiership Metrics after round 23<\/p>\n<p>Western Bulldogs, Sydney and Brisbane are the only teams in or close to the &quot;premiership window&quot; with one round to go.<\/p>\n<p>Details for the last 12 premiers&#39; performance against these metrics in the following post. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Jm7pAQtUNn\">pic.twitter.com\/Jm7pAQtUNn<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Andrew Whelan (@andrew_whelan) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/andrew_whelan\/status\/1825459918926946757?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 19, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They have a compelling game style that stacks up, great talent, hot recent form with one minor blip, and a real chance that to win from the bottom half of the eight.<\/p>\n<p>If justice has anything to do with anything the Bulldogs and Hawthorn will make it.<\/p>\n<h2>3. Fremantle<\/h2>\n<p>Obviously, the top two on this list are the two best teams on the list and two of the form teams in the competition.<\/p>\n<p>But Freo, to me, is clearly third.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">It could come down to the final game of the home and away season.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/foreverfreo?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#foreverfreo<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Fremantle Dockers (@freodockers) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/freodockers\/status\/1824724216316342700?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 17, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Even though they\u2019ve lost their last three, they were by a combined 21 points.<\/p>\n<p>The loss to Essendon was catastrophic when they let Zach Merrett waltz out the front of a centre bounce to win the game (though we all appreciate them for getting Essendon fans\u2019 hopes up so they could be disappointed again), but the other two were defensible.<\/p>\n<p>The loss to Geelong at home shouldn\u2019t have happened but sometimes you get Chris Scotted, while the loss to GWS was not a bad loss given how GWS is going.<\/p>\n<p>I think Fremantle is good. I just do.<\/p>\n<p>Despite losing their last three they play attractive footy rebounding from defence, sitting second in handball receives and second in scores from the back half. Given their midfield, it\u2019s also not surprising that they\u2019re second in scores from stoppage.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re a bit like Dakota Johnson, I\u2019m constantly asking, \u201cwhy aren\u2019t you better?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>While their control game has dropped off significantly and probably been the biggest reason for their drop in form as they sit 14th in mark differential over the last five games, this is still an attractive team with a top-2 midfield and a good forward line.<\/p>\n<p>If justice has anything to do with it, Fremantle will beat Port Adelaide in Perth and make it. To me, Freo has Colin Robinson energy.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Colin Robinson, Energy Vampire - What we do in the Shadows - S01E01\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_Dk1YGQjBo8?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>They won\u2019t win it all, but they\u2019ll suck the fight out of whoever they play first.<\/p>\n<h2>4. Carlton<\/h2>\n<p>The only reason I framed the column like I did was so I could put Carlton bottom.<\/p>\n<p>I know they\u2019ll probably make it.<\/p>\n<p>I know.<\/p>\n<p>Carlton gets to play West Coast and St Kilda for the right to play finals while an objectively better team in Fremantle has had to close the season with GWS and Port Adelaide.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">An emphatic win in the West where everyone stood tall \ud83d\udcaa<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/StrongerTogether?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#StrongerTogether<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Carlton FC (@CarltonFC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CarltonFC\/status\/1825114373485924656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 18, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Given Carlton\u2019s draw, if they didn\u2019t make it there\u2019s no telling the scale of the disaster even with their injury list. (By the way, remember the fanfare when their fitness boss Andrew Russell showed up? He was an \u201celite operator\u201d. Now he\u2019s the devil? God I hate Carlton.)<\/p>\n<p>What a disgrace.<\/p>\n<p>Watching Carlton makes me want to gouge my eyes out. No team does less with more than the Blues. They\u2019re the Chet Hanks of football.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Actor Tom Hanks Son Chet , Speaks Jamaican Patois Language\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/1FankRSprOs?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>They have wasted so much opportunity it would be offensive if it wasn\u2019t so embarrassing (and funny).<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re going to make it but they wouldn\u2019t if justice played any part in the world.<\/p>\n<p>Go Saints.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><b><i>Like what you read from our hard-hitting columnist?<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><b><i>Follow\u00a0<\/i><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/guywholikesspo1\"><b><i>@Guywholikessport<\/i><\/b><\/a><b><i>\u00a0on Twitter or check out his\u00a0<\/i><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/guywholikessport.wixsite.com\/guywholikessport\"><b><i>FULL BLOG HERE\u00a0<\/i><\/b><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":67108,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,344],"tags":[29,8614,1329,8260,3094],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-67107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-sports","tag-afl","tag-afl-2024","tag-australian-rules","tag-guywholikessport","tag-opinion"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":null,"md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"22\/08\/2024","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67107","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67107"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67107\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67108"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67107"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67107"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67107"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=67107"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}