{"id":64370,"date":"2024-05-29T17:56:28","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T07:56:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=64370"},"modified":"2024-05-30T09:58:40","modified_gmt":"2024-05-29T23:58:40","slug":"64370","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2024\/05\/64370\/","title":{"rendered":"Midseason Premiership Metric Superlatives"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We\u2019re now at the midway point of the season and it seems to me that 13 teams realistically can give themselves at least half a chance of winning the whole thing, or at least being a pain in the ass come finals.<\/p>\n<p>Andrew Whelan (the single best follow on footy Twitter with the single best stats website) does a version of Champion Data\u2019s Premiership Standards for those of us who want to watch and talk about football through a prism that goes beyond talking exclusively about Chad Warner\u2019s contract.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83c\udfc6AFL Premiership Metrics after round 11<\/p>\n<p>Details for the last 12 premiers&#39; performance against these metrics in the following post.\ud83d\udc47 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2BRidD2C7Z\">pic.twitter.com\/2BRidD2C7Z<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Andrew Whelan (@andrew_whelan) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/andrew_whelan\/status\/1794983385590612097?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 27, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The premiership metrics are a group of metrics where at least 10 of the last 12 premiers have featured in the top six of each of these numbers.<\/p>\n<p>The last 12 premiers have ranked in the top six in at least 75% of the metrics, and only one (Collingwood in 2023) has ranked in the bottom six of any of them.<\/p>\n<p>All of you Will Huntings out there will be quick to let me know that correlation doesn\u2019t equal causation.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.whatascript.com\/image-files\/good-will-hunting-janitor.jpg\" alt=\"Good Will Hunting - Learn from the Masters (#1)\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I know.<\/p>\n<p>I too finished year 9.<\/p>\n<p>These numbers are just meant to be an interesting snapshot of who is good at the most important stuff halfway through the season.<\/p>\n<p>Because this column threatens to be a very dry collection of numbers, I thought I\u2019d go through the metrics using superlatives.<\/p>\n<h1><em><strong>Most likely to win the premiership \u2013 Sydney<\/strong><\/em><\/h1>\n<p>No prizes for guessing this one.<\/p>\n<p>Sydney are number one in the AFL for total points scored and fewest points conceded, not much more to say.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/I wrote about Sydney earlier this week\">I wrote about Sydney earlier this week<\/a> and I have very little to add to that column.<\/p>\n<p>My only addition is that, actually, James Rowbottom is the Marcellus Wallace of the Swans.<\/p>\n<p>He doesn\u2019t get a lot of plaudits, but his work as the best defensive\/tackling midfielder in footy allows the more expansive players like Gulden, Warner and Heeney the freedom to do what they want.<\/p>\n<p>In the same way, Marcellus Wallace isn\u2019t in a lot of Pulp Fiction, but he does facilitate virtually every conflict in Pulp Fiction, and he\u2019s the one that calls the Wolf.<\/p>\n<h1><em><strong>Most likely to accidentally win the premiership \u2013 Western Bulldogs<\/strong><\/em><\/h1>\n<p>Claudio Ranieri, the ex-soccer coach, was commonly known as The Tinkerman during his days at Chelsea.<\/p>\n<p>He was like Mr Bean.<\/p>\n<p>If something was working perfectly, he\u2019d still try and fix it either with another tactical change or squad rotation.<\/p>\n<p>Luke Beveredge is on his way to the same nickname, but, like Ranieri at Leicester he has tinkered his way to a good side this season.<\/p>\n<p>The metrics say the Bulldogs are the equal second-best team in footy, largely on the basis of strong attacking numbers and good differentials.<\/p>\n<p>His most impactful changes have been the season-long move of Aaron Naughton to a higher half-forward role.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Six goals for Aaron Naughton!<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLSaintsDogs?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLSaintsDogs<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KkDve7jeDk\">pic.twitter.com\/KkDve7jeDk<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; AFL (@AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFL\/status\/1780918724611985813?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 18, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Which has allowed both Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Sam Darcy to play closer to goal and with a bit more space, and the addition of Ed Richards to the midfield.<\/p>\n<p>Richards around the ball has added real juice to what was a one-paced midfield prior to his injection and has made them a far better side.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m workshopping a take that speed is the most important aspect of modern football as the game has opened up, and the Richards&#8217; move lends credence to that.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Ed Richards&#39; first quarter \ud83d\udd25 <\/p>\n<p>11 disposals<br \/>275 metres gained<br \/>5 score involvements<br \/>3 goal assists<br \/>2 clearances<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLDogsSwans?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLDogsSwans<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jHMsNXBH8e\">pic.twitter.com\/jHMsNXBH8e<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; 7AFL (@7AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/7AFL\/status\/1793584804610658396?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 23, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The question will be whether each of Tom Liberatore and Jack Macrae can play in the same side, given their skillset overlap as Jack Macrae\u2019s mobility has gone down.<\/p>\n<p>You\u2019ll note that the two players I named were just injured, but if they can get back quickly these numbers say the Bulldogs are a chance<\/p>\n<h1><em><strong>Most likely to disappoint their fans \u2013 Essendon<\/strong><\/em><\/h1>\n<p>I like Essendon. I like watching them.<\/p>\n<p>I enjoy Kyle Langford\u2019s brand of forward craft and Sam Durham\u2019s everything.<\/p>\n<p>The numbers say they are not serious people.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Succession -  You are not serious people.\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LZTaXjt2Ggk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>They are 13th, ahead of only Hawthorn, St Kilda, West Coast, Richmond and North Melbourne.<\/p>\n<p>The only numbers they\u2019re top six in are opposition inside 50s, turnover differential and opposition clangers.<\/p>\n<p>Their pressure\/defence numbers are good but not much else is.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Seven straight rounds without a loss!<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/essendonfc?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@essendonfc<\/a> coach Brad Scott tonight joins <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFL360?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFL360<\/a> to explain his team&#39;s turnaround since Gather Round.<\/p>\n<p>LIVE from 6.30pm (AEST) <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qgMWNqrMix\">pic.twitter.com\/qgMWNqrMix<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Fox Footy (@FOXFOOTY) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FOXFOOTY\/status\/1794990672065306996?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 27, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>This is not a prototypical 8-2-1 team that\u2019s sitting second on the ladder, and it shows in their percentage of 104.4%, which is also 13th.<\/p>\n<p>This is a \u201cwe\u2019re ahead of schedule season\u201d and those seasons also often dovetail into \u201cwe\u2019re going to lose early in the finals\u201d seasons.<\/p>\n<h1><em><strong>Most likely to make you fall asleep at a party \u2013 Fremantle<\/strong><\/em><\/h1>\n<p>The numbers have Fremantle fourth.<\/p>\n<p>Whatever?<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re like Michael Keaton.<\/p>\n<p>You know they\u2019re good (not great), and they\u2019ll never set your hair on fire with their charisma like Jon Bernthal or Phillip Seymour Hoffman might.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The Wolf Of Wall Street - Jon Bernthal funny scene\" width=\"500\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/VyULkgfafz8?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re top three in five of the six most defensive metrics and nothing else.<\/p>\n<p>They have a dominant midfield, but those numbers aren\u2019t relevant to this particular exercise.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&#39;It would&#39;ve been nice to steal the four points, but we will take the two.&#39;<\/p>\n<p>JOM has started to hit the scoreboard over the past fortnight as he breaks down the draw \ud83d\udcac<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/KalyakoorlWalyalup?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#KalyakoorlWalyalup<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Fremantle Dockers (@freodockers) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/freodockers\/status\/1794178218775429251?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 25, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>This is a boring football team that is good at the boring stuff, and I just don\u2019t think their lack of dynamism can win premierships.<\/p>\n<p>You need some flare and dash to win in the AFL now and Fremantle don\u2019t have it.<\/p>\n<p>This number is only as good at it is because they\u2019re dominant at one thing.<\/p>\n<h1><em><strong>Most even competition \u2013 The AFL<\/strong><\/em><\/h1>\n<p>It would have been funny if I had put Suncorp Super Netball but no, the AFL gets this one.<\/p>\n<p>The top 13 is amazingly even this season.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">How things stand ahead of the byes \ud83e\ude9c <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/nZ1eiavQbs\">pic.twitter.com\/nZ1eiavQbs<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; AFL (@AFL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFL\/status\/1794878056508878936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 26, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s one standout team in Sydney, who have a mean ranking of 3.2 across all of the premiership metrics, which would make them the fifth best premier since 2012.<\/p>\n<p>Other than the Swans, no other team is better than 6.2, but the 12 other teams are between 6.2 and 9.7.<\/p>\n<p>Compare that to last year where the numbers said that Melbourne were the best with a mean ranking of 2.6, but then there were teams in the fours and fives and 11 teams were over a mean ranking of 9.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Final AFL Premiership Metrics for 2023 \ud83c\udfc6<\/p>\n<p>Top 6 ranks (out of 19 metrics):<\/p>\n<p>19 Melbourne (#1 in 4)<br \/>15 Collingwood (#1 in 5)<br \/>13 Carlton<br \/>11 Brisbane (#1 in 4)<br \/>9 St Kilda<br \/>8 Port Adelaide<br \/>7 Sydney<br \/>7 Greater Western Sydney <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xjf6GrpA8p\">pic.twitter.com\/xjf6GrpA8p<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Andrew Whelan (@andrew_whelan) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/andrew_whelan\/status\/1695766329582850441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 27, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The have nots are about as bad as they were last year, with the Tigers adding themselves to the dregs of the league.<\/p>\n<p>But the haves are better and there are more of them.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><b><i>Like what you read from our hard-hitting columnist?<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><b><i>Follow\u00a0<\/i><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/guywholikesspo1\"><b><i>@Guywholikessport<\/i><\/b><\/a><b><i>\u00a0on Twitter or check out his\u00a0<\/i><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/guywholikessport.wixsite.com\/guywholikessport\"><b><i>FULL BLOG HERE\u00a0<\/i><\/b><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":64373,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,344],"tags":[29,8614,3311,1329,8260,3094],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-64370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-sports","tag-afl","tag-afl-2024","tag-aussie-rules","tag-australian-rules","tag-guywholikessport","tag-opinion"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":null,"md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"29\/05\/2024","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64370","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64370"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64370\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64373"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64370"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=64370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}