{"id":63644,"date":"2024-05-13T08:59:46","date_gmt":"2024-05-12T22:59:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=63644"},"modified":"2024-05-15T15:12:37","modified_gmt":"2024-05-15T05:12:37","slug":"why-every-team-in-the-eight-cant-win-the-flag","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2024\/05\/why-every-team-in-the-eight-cant-win-the-flag\/","title":{"rendered":"Why EVERY team in the eight can&#8217;t win the flag."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Round 9 was \u201cTop Eight Round\u201d where every team that was in the top eight heading into the week played each other.<\/p>\n<p>After the round we had one change in the eight, with Fremantle falling out and the Pies vaulting back in after beating West Coast, who are, indeed, not back.<\/p>\n<p>Their resurgence was like a virgin\u2019s first time, short-lived.<\/p>\n<p>The participants in the finals series don\u2019t tend to change much after this point in the season, so chances are one the teams that is currently in the eight will win the flag.<\/p>\n<p>While the competition is better this season than it was last, like every year in every sport, nobody\u2019s perfect.<\/p>\n<p>In that spirit, I\u2019ll tell you why every team that\u2019s currently in the top eight unequivocally cannot win the premiership.<\/p>\n<p>Bad luck all! Better luck next season.<\/p>\n<h1>1. Sydney \u2013 History<\/h1>\n<p>I\u2019ve made a huge mistake.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Gob- I&#039;ve Made a Huge Mistake.\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/46Kv4rBJi68?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Seriously what a dumb column idea.<\/p>\n<p>Why start with the team that just demolished GWS and a heartbroken Fremantle, has the best scoring differential, the best score from turnover and score from defensive half differential, and the second-best score from stoppage differential.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s no reason Sydney can\u2019t win the premiership.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">What a way to start the weekend \ud83d\ude0e\ud83e\udd73\ud83d\udd25<\/p>\n<p>Five wins in a row and sitting clear top of the table &#8211; how good is that?! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bloods?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bloods<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/h7rK7D6wPM\">pic.twitter.com\/h7rK7D6wPM<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Sydney Swans (@sydneyswans) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sydneyswans\/status\/1789052795988889836?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 10, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>I would have said defence but they\u2019re giving up the fewest goals per inside 50 and the third fewest scoring shots per inside 50 in the last 5 games, which included their win over GWS and their potent attack.<\/p>\n<p>Even with the rain in that game, they\u2019re unassailable defensive numbers.<\/p>\n<p>So I\u2019m stuck with history, Longmire is 1-3 in Grand Finals.<\/p>\n<p>Maybe they\u2019ll lose again? I don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n<p>Also, the defence.<\/p>\n<p>Other than GWS, in that 5 game stretch they\u2019ve played a grieving Fremantle, Hawthorn, Gold Coast and West Coast.<\/p>\n<p>Whatever. Stupid game.<\/p>\n<h1>2. Geelong \u2013 Need the corridor<\/h1>\n<p>This is better.<\/p>\n<p>Geelong have lost two in a row in remarkably similar ways.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not to say that they\u2019re a poor side, it\u2019s just to say that there\u2019s a way to beat them.<\/p>\n<p>Geelong were so good early in the season when they got access to the corridor and were able to get speed on the game.<\/p>\n<p>Over the last two games both Melbourne and Port Adelaide have totally owned the corridor and forced Geelong into slower ball movement, which they couldn\u2019t abide.<\/p>\n<p>The Cats only took 66 marks against Port and were -54 in uncontested ball.<\/p>\n<p>Melbourne didn\u2019t necessarily attack the game the other way, but Port shut down Geelong\u2019s corridor work and cheated hard the other way.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Tonight&#39;s match report is now live. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/WeAreGeelong?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#WeAreGeelong<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Geelong Cats (@GeelongCats) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GeelongCats\/status\/1788912193884536958?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 10, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Geelong only got back into the game when they got fast and made Port pay for their cheating like they were a scorned wife in a big-money divorce looking to add a beach house.<\/p>\n<p>If Geelong can\u2019t access the corridor, they\u2019ve proven two weeks in a row that they can\u2019t win.<\/p>\n<h1>3. Essendon \u2013 No great players<\/h1>\n<p>Now, this might seem obvious.<\/p>\n<p>You tend to need great players to win premierships.<\/p>\n<p>Good players win you games, but having great players wins you premierships and Essendon have one great player, Zach Merrett.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Kyle Langford heaped the praise on Essendon captain Zach Merrett for how he has carried himself on and off the field so far this season.<\/p>\n<p>FULL CHAT: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4GhSjTdSS0\">https:\/\/t.co\/4GhSjTdSS0<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SlZgLOoRUV\">pic.twitter.com\/SlZgLOoRUV<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Triple M Footy (@triplemfooty) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/triplemfooty\/status\/1789499878093246915?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 12, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>They have a few very good ones like Stringer, McKay, Durham (my favourite), Langford etc.<\/p>\n<p>They have a good system, are very well-coached, and for the first time in living memory seem to be hard to play against.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, over the past 5 games they\u2019re third in metres gained differential and are seventh for opposition metres gained.<\/p>\n<p>Last season they were fifteenth in both metrics.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re hoping to be like a great TV show.<\/p>\n<p>Great TV shows tend not to have stars at the centre of them, at least early in their runs, but instead have pieces who are stars in a great infrastructure like Jon Hamm in Mad Men.<\/p>\n<p>AFL football doesn\u2019t work like that.<\/p>\n<h1>4. Melbourne \u2013 The same reason that they haven\u2019t won for the past 4 years<\/h1>\n<p>The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expected different results.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">One point short. \ud83d\udc94 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/DemonSpirit?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#DemonSpirit<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AFLBluesDees?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#AFLBluesDees<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4aJB3pLeBz\">pic.twitter.com\/4aJB3pLeBz<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Narrm Demons (@melbournefc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/melbournefc\/status\/1788545645491761336?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 9, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Relatedly, Melbourne don\u2019t have any forwards.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re below average in scoring this season, like they always are.<\/p>\n<p>This year, they\u2019re not even generating shots or inside 50s (or clearances), sitting below average in those numbers as well.<\/p>\n<p>They\u2019re matched only by Carmy from The Bear in terms of self-sabotage.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The Bear s2 ep10  - Carmen and Claire Break Up\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nNlKcR1uHPg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Trade for Tom Lynch.<\/p>\n<h1>5. GWS Giants \u2013 No plan B<\/h1>\n<p>When the US invaded Vietnam, they figured the kind of warfare that served them so well in WWII would work in the jungles of Vietnam.<\/p>\n<p>They didn\u2019t research the terrain and were out-thought and outfought by those pesky Viet Cong.<\/p>\n<p>Even as decades went by and they took it upon themselves to improve other countries like Iraq and Afghanistan, the American plan B remained \u201cdo plan A better\u201d.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udcac &quot;I just don&#39;t think we&#39;re playing our best footy and we&#39;ve been beaten by three pretty good teams.&quot;<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; GWS GIANTS (@GWSGIANTS) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GWSGIANTS\/status\/1789528429987328042?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 12, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>GWS is the same. When GWS have their turnover game meshing with the (agent) orange tsunami, they\u2019re irrepressible.<\/p>\n<p>When a team stops their run, they can\u2019t pivot. The last two weeks have borne that out.<\/p>\n<p>Both Essendon and Sydney have made the games ugly and stopped GWS\u2019 run at the source, as a result both teams massively outgained GWS and dominated the territory battles.<\/p>\n<p>If it\u2019s not a perfectly GWS game with their pinpoint kicking, pressure, run, and turnover, they can\u2019t pivot into a contested game or win on the other team\u2019s terms.<\/p>\n<p>At least their exits from unwinnable situations have been more dignified than Saigon.<\/p>\n<h1>6. Port Adelaide \u2013 They\u2019re a good stats bad team, team.<\/h1>\n<p>There are certain players who love nothing more than putting up big stats on bad teams.<\/p>\n<p>Trae Young in basketball, Kirk Cousins in American football, Harry Sheezel in modern footy (this is unfair I know, but I was struggling for a name).<\/p>\n<p>They have gaudy numbers but no real cut-through in terms of winning.<\/p>\n<p>Port is a bit the same, as a whole club.<\/p>\n<p>They lead the league in shot differential and expected score differential, are currently second in inside 50 differential and third in metres gained differential and clearance differential.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Ollie Wines, ladies and gentlemen:<\/p>\n<p>\u27a1\ufe0f 33 disposals<br \/>\u27a1\ufe0f 11 score involvements<br \/>\u27a1\ufe0f Nine clearances <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jELGayWuch\">pic.twitter.com\/jELGayWuch<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Yartapuulti FC (@PAFC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PAFC\/status\/1789075446438502664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 10, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>This is a territory team that plays territory football without necessarily sacrificing much in terms of efficiency, sitting top in shots per inside 50 (granted they miss a lot of those shots).<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">dare we say&#8230; breakout game? <\/p>\n<p>\u2b50 22 disposals (career-high)<br \/>\u2b50 seven tackles (equal career-high)<br \/>\u2b50 86% disposal efficiency <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tZzjanNh5T\">pic.twitter.com\/tZzjanNh5T<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Yartapuulti FC (@PAFC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PAFC\/status\/1789158495109235097?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 11, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Yet I would be astonished if they win the premiership.<\/p>\n<p>Their win against Geelong is their first substantial win of the season.<\/p>\n<p>Port are the quintessential flat track bullies and tracks aren\u2019t flat in the finals.<\/p>\n<h1>7. Carlton \u2013 Their defence is held together by Jacob Weitering and toothpicks<\/h1>\n<p>I wrote about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2024\/05\/the-quandary-of-carlton\/\">Carlton last week<\/a> so I\u2019ll keep this short.<\/p>\n<p>The defence is a problem. Last year this was one of the very best defences in the league, giving up the fewest goals and shots per inside 50.<\/p>\n<p>This season they\u2019re giving up the second most goals per inside 50.<\/p>\n<p>If Jacob Weitering goes down it would only get worse.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Jacob Weitering, thank you for being you:<br \/>#7 Rated Carlton Player<br \/>17 Disposals, 8 Intercepts<br \/>7 Marks, 4 Intercept Marks<br \/>4 Contested, 1 Score Launch<br \/>5 Spoils, 8 One Percenters<br \/>3 Rebound 50s, 209 Metres Gained<\/p>\n<p>If he doesn&#39;t get smothered, that&#39;s just about a perfect game. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ViVJKSdJjz\">pic.twitter.com\/ViVJKSdJjz<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Carlton News &amp; Stats (@UptheBaggers) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/UptheBaggers\/status\/1788558835776737345?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 9, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s like Logan Roy at the end of Succession. If you think it\u2019s bad now, wait until it\u2019s Lewis Young trying to lead the show. It would be even worse.<\/p>\n<p>It would be a tribute band.<\/p>\n<h1>8. Collingwood \u2013 Old<\/h1>\n<p>Collingwood is old.<\/p>\n<p>Their playing list probably watches Bounce on Sunday nights and laughs, they\u2019re that old.<\/p>\n<p>They might even say \u201cspot on, Duck\u201d in a Facebook comment when Wayne Carey says something.<\/p>\n<p>They were the oldest team last year, and they remain the oldest team this year.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Our biggest win of the season and the fewest points we&#39;ve conceded all year!<\/p>\n<p>Hope you enjoyed Mother&#39;s Day at Marvel, Magpie Army \ud83d\udda4\ud83e\ude76 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/UHAOe2KwdR\">pic.twitter.com\/UHAOe2KwdR<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Collingwood FC (@CollingwoodFC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CollingwoodFC\/status\/1789529500860272806?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 12, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Except this year they seem much older.<\/p>\n<p>Steele Sidebottom is done, Jordan De Goey has had his one good season and now seems content to loaf his way to an early-September trip to Bali, Jeremy Howe isn\u2019t the same as he was last year and I could go on.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not that they aren\u2019t trying (except De Goey), and they\u2019re still a smart side with a big heart, but they just aren\u2019t what they were last season.<\/p>\n<p>Their big acquisition of Lachie Schultz was not exactly Richmond adding Tom Lynch.<\/p>\n<p>Collingwood was the worst premier since the 2016 Bulldogs, and I suspect that they\u2019ll have a bit in common with the Bulldogs in a few years\u2019 time.<\/p>\n<p>Nick Daicos will be their Marcus Bontempelli.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><b><i>Like what you read from our hard-hitting columnist?<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><b><i>Follow\u00a0<\/i><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/guywholikesspo1\"><b><i>@Guywholikessport<\/i><\/b><\/a><b><i>\u00a0on Twitter or check out his\u00a0<\/i><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/guywholikessport.wixsite.com\/guywholikessport\"><b><i>FULL BLOG HERE\u00a0<\/i><\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":63646,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8298,344],"tags":[29,8614,3311,1329,8260,3094],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-63644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-guywholikessport","category-sports","tag-afl","tag-afl-2024","tag-aussie-rules","tag-australian-rules","tag-guywholikessport","tag-opinion"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":null,"md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"13\/05\/2024","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63644\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/63646"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63644"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=63644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}