{"id":21460,"date":"2020-06-29T12:25:13","date_gmt":"2020-06-29T02:25:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/?p=21460"},"modified":"2020-07-02T14:38:20","modified_gmt":"2020-07-02T04:38:20","slug":"the-snapshot-afl-round-4-recap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/2020\/06\/the-snapshot-afl-round-4-recap\/","title":{"rendered":"The Snapshot: AFL Round 4 Recap"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Those not afraid\nto think outside the box likely enjoyed a big week on the punt as Round 4\ncoughed up a handful of upsets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>GWS, St Kilda and Carlton all came through as the underdog, while a few surprises in the form of Charlie Dixon, Dusty Martin and Sam Docherty caught plenty off guard in the Player Performance markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bookies have filled us in on the important numbers and trends, so if you\u2019re looking for an edge heading into Round 5, make sure to read this week\u2019s edition of The Snapshot below. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Power Rankings<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"740\" src=\"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/AFL-Round-5-Power-Rankings-1024x740.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-21472\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/AFL-Round-5-Power-Rankings-1024x740.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/AFL-Round-5-Power-Rankings-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/AFL-Round-5-Power-Rankings-768x555.png 768w, https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/AFL-Round-5-Power-Rankings-730x527.png 730w, https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/AFL-Round-5-Power-Rankings.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Performance\nof the Week <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Hard to go\npast the ladder leaders right now, or more specifically, Charlie Dixon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Port continue to cruise on the Gold Coast after defeating West Coast by 48 on Saturday, while punters lined their pockets in more ways than one thanks to the powerful key forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dixon was paying\n$4.75 for Most Goals and a whopping $23 to kick 5+, a result that leaves him firmly\nin the driver\u2019s seat for the Coleman Medal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also came through at $9.50 in our First Goal Kicker market, before throwing his name in the hat for Mark of the Year with this outstanding hanger. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1276734023742578688&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2020%2F06%2Fthe-snapshot-afl-round-4-recap%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Punter\u2019s\nPals <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Don\u2019t ever be afraid to back Tom Papley. Following Thursday night\u2019s four-goal performance, the big man has now kicked 2+ goals in seven of Sydney\u2019s last eight matches. Not a bad a little fill-up for those that backed him in our \u2018Most Goals\u2019 market @ $4.00.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Bit of a quirky one here, but Toby Greene has been absolute money in night games at GIANTS Stadium. Following Friday\u2019s three-goal game against Collingwood, the little genius has now kicked 2+ goals in each of his last five night matches at home. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1276467758524329984&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2020%2F06%2Fthe-snapshot-afl-round-4-recap%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Pull the trigger on the next underdog to play at Marvel. After St Kilda\u2019s resounding win over the Tigers on Saturday (paying $2.75), the underdog has now covered the line in each of the last seven games. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>So the Under might be the play between Collingwood and Essendon on Friday. Following the Bombers\u2019 narrow loss to the Blues last week, the Total has now gone Under in each of their last eight games at the MCG. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>One to write down for later, but the Suns have now covered the line in each of their last four matches against Fremantle. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Steer clear of the Crows at the line. Following Saturday\u2019s thumping against the Lions at the Gabba, Adelaide has now failed to cover in nine of their last 10 games. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>We\u2019ll touch on Lachie Neale again shortly, but boy does he enjoy playing the Crows. The Brownlow favourite has now recorded 31 disposals or more in each of his last five games against Adelaide \u2013 a handy trend if you backed him @ $2.25 to have 30 or more on Sunday. Bad luck if you had him to kick a goal, though. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/lachieneale\/status\/1277125252632346624\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Can you believe Chad Wingard now sits fifth in the Coleman Medal race? He\u2019s also been kind to punter\u2019s recently, especially if you backed him to kick 2+ goals ($2.30) on Sunday against North. For those keeping counts, Wingard has now kicked two goals or more in four of his last five games against the Roos. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>If You\u2019re\nNot First, You\u2019re Last <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Hugh McCluggage not only got our Lions off to a fast start on Saturday, but he also kicked things off for punter\u2019s paying $19.00 as the First Goal Kicker. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The book\nsuffered two losses on First Goal Kickers last week \u2013 the first being Charlie Dixon\non Saturday against West Coast, and the second being Alex Sexton against\nFremantle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The book\ndid come out big winners on Jeremy Cameron however, a name everyone seemingly\nforgot following a couple of quiet games since the restart. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The\nreigning Coleman Medalist got the Giants on the board first paying $7.00 \u2013\nalthough it was a 15-minute wait in what turned out to be a low-scoring first\nquarter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last but\nnot least, Levi Casboult. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For whatever reason, the Blues big man loves playing night games, because he\u2019s now kicked two goals or more &#8211; including this beautiful banana &#8211; in five of his last six. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1276825074520043520&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2020%2F06%2Fthe-snapshot-afl-round-4-recap%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If you\nbacked him @ $12.00 on Saturday against the Dons, you probably walked away a happy\ncustomer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The\nBaggage Area<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Charlie\nDixon and Tom Papley were the standouts in Round 4, but we have to give some\nlove to Chad Wingard for his three-goal performance against North Melbourne. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After some ups and downs in his first year with the Hawks, Wingard suddenly looks to be the most dangerous player in the Hawthorn forward line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1277183621141368832&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2020%2F06%2Fthe-snapshot-afl-round-4-recap%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>He was\npaying $9.00 for Most Goals on Sunday and he might be worth a look again this\nweek with 15 goals to his name in 10 matches against GWS. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also worth\na mention is Dan Butler, who carved his former Richmond teammates apart on Saturday\nwith three goals paying $6.00.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Butler was\ntraded from Richmond to St Kilda at the end of last season for basically\nnothing, so his big day out had to rub further salt into the wound of Damien\nHardwick. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Disposal\nDemons<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Scott\nPendlebury has been absolute money in Disposal markets this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He might be\na long shot for the Brownlow, but you can\u2019t complain with this 26 disposal\neffort (paying $2.50) during Friday\u2019s losing effort against the Giants. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also no complaints with Sam Docherty, who was enormous on Saturday against Essendon clocking 30+ disposals for the 16<sup>th<\/sup> time in his career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1277028943476989964&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2020%2F06%2Fthe-snapshot-afl-round-4-recap%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Blues\ndefender was perhaps a touch overs in the market paying $4.00 to have 30 disposals,\na good investment for those brave enough. The performance looks even more\nbrilliant when you consider no Essendon player managed over 20. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we touched on earlier, our very own Lachie Neale was again the standout of the round racking up 32 disposals in the Lions\u2019 win over the Crows. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The superstar midfielder was paying $2.25 to have 30 Disposals, while he\u2019s also received a tidy trim in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/sports\/australian-rules\/afl-futures\/afl-brownlow-2020\/260e7b70-cb46-4e4e-b89c-4ae341311172\">Brownlow betting<\/a> firming from $7.00 into $4.00 favouritism. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other notables\ninclude Jack Billings, who had 25 for the Saints, and Shaun Higgins, who\nclocked 30 against Hawthorn paying $5.00. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Mr Irrelevant<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>He\u2019s a\nsuperstar of our game, but it\u2019s time to throw Dusty under the bus. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Richmond was favoured heavily on Saturday with the gun midfielder returning from a rib injury, but unless you had a magnifying glass, he was hard to spot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dusty\nfinished with only 19 disposals and a tackle in the end, a rough result for those\nthat backed him to have 20 Disposals ($1.47) or to kick a goal at Anytime\n($1.40). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be fair, Dusty has been a little off his game since the season restarted, but he might have a chance to bounce-back this week against an equally ordinary-looking West Coast outfit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>One for\nthe Blackbook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>North\nMelbourne looked done and dusted at three-quarter time on Sunday before they\ncame to life late in the fourth term to put a real scare into the Hawks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s no denying Hawthorn\u2019s defenders took their foot off the gas, but a big reason for the Roos\u2019 fightback was 20-year-old forward Curtis Taylor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1277170587836706821&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2020%2F06%2Fthe-snapshot-afl-round-4-recap%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The\nyoungster took two big pack marks and kicked a crucial goal late in the fourth\ntime \u2013 a welcome sign after Ben Brown went missing early on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taylor was\npaying $2.30 as an Anytime Goal Kicker and is already showing us why the Roos\ntraded up in the 2018 draft to select him. He\u2019s a big name to watch going\nforward. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Like a Librarian\n<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There were\na few big tackles on Saturday, but it\u2019s tough to go past Ben Long running down\nTom Lynch from behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1277391139759218690&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2020%2F06%2Fthe-snapshot-afl-round-4-recap%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Long finished with seven tackles to his name, one shy of tying\na career-high. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Specky Magee<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>One word:\nChaz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1277108161996939264&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2020%2F06%2Fthe-snapshot-afl-round-4-recap%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bad\nBeats<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Rough\nold day for Crows supporters, in more ways than one. Adelaide lost to the Lions\nby 37-points, falling half a point shy of covering the +36.5 line set at the\nbounce!<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>From\nOutside Fitty, and Beyond<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Cameron enjoyed a nice little bounce-back on Friday night against Collingwood, capping things off with this beautiful shot between the sticks from outside 50. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1277410142032543744&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2020%2F06%2Fthe-snapshot-afl-round-4-recap%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In terms of\nthe game, this goal completely swung momentum in GWS\u2019 favour, while it likely\nhelped a few people in their multi\u2019s with Jezza paying $1.15 to kick a goal at Anytime.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Don\u2019t\nTell the Misso <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>You\u2019ve\ngot to risk it for the biscuit, but $120k on Collingwood @ $1.85? Just asking\nfor trouble. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bloody Good Bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Sometimes we tip winners, and (hopefully) you back them.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?id=1277147220358213632&#038;dnt=true&#038;lang=en_AU&#038;width=500&#038;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.neds.com.au%2Fblog%2F2020%2F06%2Fthe-snapshot-afl-round-4-recap%2F\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\" loading=\"lazy\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" style=\"border:0;\" title=\"X Post\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":20851,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,344],"tags":[29,30,32,5198,5154,2830,5196,5197,2882,5199,1602,5200],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-21460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-australian-rules","category-sports","tag-afl","tag-afl-betting","tag-afl-odds","tag-afl-power-rankings","tag-afl-premiership-betting","tag-afl-round-4","tag-afl-round-4-betting","tag-afl-round-4-odds","tag-afl-round-5","tag-brownlow-betting","tag-brownlow-medal","tag-brownlow-odds"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":null,"md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"29\/06\/2020","event_country":"Australia"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21460","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21460"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21460\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20851"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21460"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21460"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21460"},{"taxonomy":"hub_post_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neds.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/hub_post_cat?post=21460"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}