US Open – Men’s Semi Finals

Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Alex Zverev, 6:15 am
Carreno Busta +4.5 Games

Both players have had very strong runs to reach this point, but I think Zverev is somewhat overrated here at $1.35.

I don’t think there is a huge gap between these two men, and don’t mind PCB outright at $3.10 or +4.5 games at $1.80.

Zverev has had a relatively easy run to the semis, only taking care of two low seeds in Mannarino and Coric.

Carreno-Busta has had the more difficult path of the two, getting a bit of luck against Djokovic and beating Shapovalov as a big underdog.

Despite what Nick Kyrgios said, hard court has actually been PCB’s best grand slam surface, with this being his 2nd US Open semi.

Looking purely at the numbers, these two men have had very similar break/hold percentages on hard court of late.

Zverev can still be prone to making mistakes on the big stage and I think PCB’s experience and veteran savvy is a definite edge here.

I imagine we’re in for a 4 or even 5 setter here and I’m glad to be on the plus side of the number.

Daniil Medvedev vs Dominic Thiem, 9:15 am
Over 40.5 Games

It may not feature any of the ‘big 4’ but this has the makings of an absolutely epic grand slam semi.

These have been the two best players in the tournament so far and both appear to be in career-best form.

Thiem’s excellent baseline game has served him well on hard court of late, backing up from his Aus Open Final earlier this year.

Medvedev has one of the best service games on tour right now and has rarely looked in trouble all tournament.

The odds suggest that these two men are very hard to separate and I’m expecting a tight 4 or 5 setter here.

Both men have played their share of tie-breaks in the past and I can see another one or two in this one.

Two relatively safe predictions to make here are that we get at least 4 sets and 1 tie-break.

Should both of those things occur, the over definitely looks more likely than not.

US Open – Day 11

Jennifer Brady vs Naomi Osaka, 9:15 am
Osaka -3.5 Games

The WTA can be unpredictable at the best of times, but Naomi Osaka has been a real pace-setter throughout this tournament.

She has dropped just 2 sets en route to the semis and I’m banking on her making the final here.

I’d like something with a bigger payout than the $1.44 moneyline, so I’m opting for Osaka -3.5 games at the handicap.

While her opponent Jennifer Brady has also looked great, I’m not sure it’s sustainable against an opponent of Osaka’s quality.

Brady narrowly got in as the #28 seed in a weakened field, meaning she wouldn’t be seeded in most years.

She does have wins over bottom-half seeds in Garcia, Kerber, and Puntintseva, but Osaka is clearly the best player remaining in the tournament.

I don’t see her getting much joy on the Osaka serve, which should put a ton of pressure on her own service games.

This one could still go the distance, but I’m fairly confident Osaka covers this line.

Serena Williams vs Victoria Azarenka, 11:15 am
Williams to Win $1.91

It’s rare that you get Serena Williams as an underdog at the US Open, yet here we are.

Serena is a fortnight away from turning 39, yet she has still advanced to a grand slam semi with relative ease.

She has faced a relatively tough road to get there, beating the likes of Stephens, Sakkari, and Pironkova last time out.

Her form has dropped off a little of late, being taken to 3 sets in each of her last 3 matches.

This could mean that fatigue is a bit of an issue after her match yesterday, but I wouldn’t say a 3-set WTA match is all that gruelling.

I think she’ll be relatively well-rested and hungry to claim what could be her last US Open crown.

Azarenka is mercurial at the best of times, and I think the consistency of Serena’s serve gets her the win here.

US Open – Day 10

Multi: Medvedev/Thiem/Serena
Combined Odds of $1.83

It’s rare to get such a strong multi at this stage of a Grand Slam, yet here we are.

We’re starting off with Medvedev, who is the highest individual price on this multi at $1.29.

He is currently the favourite to win the tournament and I like his matchup with Rublev here.

I think his elite serve and stroke making ultimately get him over the line.

Moving on to Thiem, who finds himself at $1.20 against Aussie De Minaur.

Thiem is essentially a much better version of the same archetype and I don’t see him letting this opportunity slip.

I think he can cause a few problems on the De Minaur serve, which should ultimately prove the difference.

Last but not least, we have Serena, who is still the GOAT in a relatively lacklustre WTA.

She has a great opportunity to make the semis here and should be able to overpower Pironkova in a relatively favourable matchup.

These 3 combine nicely for a near even money play of $1.83.

Victoria Azarenka vs Elise Mertens, 9:15 am
Over 21.5 Games

This looks to be the most competitive singles match of the day and it’s hard to split these two women.

Both have been around the top of the game previously and are still capable of beating anyone on their day.

Given how even this matchup is on paper, I like the look of over 21.5 games.

This is a relatively versatile total that is essentially guaranteed to hit if we get 3 sets, but can also hit in a competitive 2-setter.

Both women enter this match in excellent form, having only dropped a set between them all tournament.

They have done especially well on serve and I’d expect a relatively low number of breaks for a WTA match.

I’d say this one could definitely go the distance, but a very tight 2-setter that goes over is also definitely possible.

US Open – Day 9

Multi: Alex Zverev/Naomi Osaka
Combined Odds of $1.71

I’m opting for something a little bit different here, this time taking a multi featuring an ATP and WTA match.

Multi pickings are generally slim at this time in a grand slam, but I find myself relatively confident in these two.

First up, we’ve got Alexander Zverev, who looks decent at $1.40 odds against Borna Coric.

While he’s a good player, I think Coric is relatively lucky to get to this point. He realistically should’ve lost to Tsitsipas and got a very easy 4th round tie against Aussie Joran Thompson.

Zverev has looked much better in his last two matches and I think his elite serve and groundstroke game earn him the win here.

Moving onto the women’s side, where we’ve got #4 seed Naomi Osaka as a $1.22 favourite against Shelby Rogers.

The match is definitely on her racquet here as she’s got a huge power and shot-making advantage over Rogers.

She looks to be in very good nick so far, especially in a straight sets win over #14 seed Kontaveit last time out.

If she plays close to her level, this should be a comfortable win.

Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Denis Shapovalov, 11:15 am
Carreno-Busta +1.5 Sets

This has the makings of a very competitive clash and I like the look of Carreno-Busta +1.5 sets at $1.75.

I think these two are very similar in terms of quality and was surprised to see Carreno-Busta open as a $2.45 underdog.

Shapovalov isn’t the type of player to blow opponents away, with his return game still fairly questionable.

He has had some solid wins over Taylor Fritz and David Goffin of late, but he’s played a ton of tennis in the process. Throw in the fact that he’s also played 3 double’s matches and fatigue could be a factor here.

Carreno-Busta should enter this one fit and firing, getting a stroke of good fortune last time out against Novak.

I’d expect him to hold serve relatively comfortably against Shapovalov and challenge well for points on his return game.

The conditions will suit hm well here and he hasn’t really put a foot wrong all tournament.

In a match that I think is very even, I’ll gladly take the underdog getting 1.5 sets.

US Open – Day 8

Vasek Pospisil vs Alex De Minaur, 1:15 am
Over 39.5 Games

This matchup looks fairly similar to the Shapovalov vs Goffin match yesterday, which comfortably went over the total.

I’m expecting a relatively similar result here and will look to play over 39.5 games.

De Minaur enters this one as the comfortable $1.55 favourite, but I’d expect a fairly close encounter here.

Pospisil is one of the better servers on tour and I’d expect him to hold the vast majority of service games here.

He isn’t exactly great on the return side of things and I wouldn’t expect too many look-ins on the De Minaur serve.

Neither man is expected to win in straight sets, with De Minaur at $1.10 to win a set and Pospisil at $1.29 in the same market.

Given the advantage both men have on their respective serves, I think a tie-break or two would definitely be possible.

If we can get 4+ sets here, over 39.5 games definitely looks like a +EV play.

Matteo Berrettini vs Andrey Rublev, 6:15 am
Rublev +2.5 Games

I’ve been very impressed with what I’ve seen from Andrey Rublev through the first 3 rounds and will take him +2.5 games here.

The #10 seed Russian is yet to drop a set thus far, having only been taken to one tie-break in the process.

He was especially good against Caruso last time out, winning 2 of the 3 sets to love.

It looks like he used the long break between matches to really improve his overall game and he enters this tournament fit and firing.

He will have suffered barely any fatigue from 3 relatively easy wins and matches up very well with Berrettini here.

He should be able to hold serve with ease here, while also presenting some problems on the Berrettini serve.

His speed advantage could prove decisive here, especially if he can get into some long rallies.

I’d expect him to at least keep this one very close, if not claim an outright upset win.

U.S Open – Day 7

Jennifer Brady vs Angelique Kerber, 1:15 am
Kerber $2.60

I really like the look of Angie Kerber today, paying a fairly generous $2.60 against Jennifer Brady.

Brady enters this as the #28 seed compared to Kerber’s 17, yet finds herself the very commanding favourite here.

I was expecting odds of around $1.90 each here, with potentially a slight edge to Kerber given her pedigree and experience.

The current $2.60 definitely looks over the odds, especially when you consider Brady’s relative lack of success throughout her career.

This is definitely the highest profile match of her career thus far and it wouldn’t be the first time we saw someone falter in that scenario.

Brady does have a relatively good serve, but Kerber is still one of the premier returners on tour.

Brady’s return game has also been relatively spotty so far, missing out on a number of break-point opportunities.

I think the step up in quality will be too much for her here as Kerber’s superior return game wins out.

Denis Shapovalov vs David Goffin, 9:15 am
Over 39.5 Games

This match has the makings of an absolute cracker and is one I’d expect to go relatively long.

My favourite play here is over 39.5 games, which looks like good value at $1.80 considering the matchup.

Shapovalov is one of the best servers on tour and you can rely on him to hold nearly 90% of the time on hard courts.

His return game has been a little lacking so far, which could lead to some missed opportunities against the Goffin serve.

Goffin isn’t the most powerful server per say, yet he still has enough quality to hold over 80% of the times on hard courts.

I think breaks of serve will be hard to come by, with a tie-break or two looking very possible.

The starting odds for this match suggest this will be a very close one, likely going 4 or 5 sets.

Should we get 4+ sets and a tie-break or two, I really like our chances of going over.

US Open – Day 6

Multi: Rublev/Medvedev/Berrettini/Auger Aliassime/Thiem
Combined Odds of $1.85

It looks to be another decent day for an ATP multi and I’m opting for a 5-legger here.

I’m starting out with Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev, both of whom start at < $1.10.

Both have started out well so far and have favourable matchups in conditions that should suit them.

We move on to Matteo Berrettini, who I’m backing against Casper Ruud at $1.13.

The Italian is well-suited to hard courts and shouldn’t have much trouble dispatching of the inconsistent Ruud.

This brings us on to exciting youngster Felix Auger Aliassime, adding some nice value to our multi at $1.20.

I think he’s a significantly better player than opponent Moutet and fully expect a relatively comfortable victory.

Last but not least, we’ve got #2 seed Dom Thiem, paying out a solid $1.20 against regular multi fave Marin Cilic.

Cilic hasn’t been too convincing in his 2 matches thus far and I don’t see Thiem missing this great opportunity to advance to the second week.

These 5 combine nicely for a total of $1.85, with the riskiest legs coming in at $1.20.

Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Vasek Pospisil, 3:15 am
Over 37.5 Games

RBA is usually a staple of these ATP multis, but I’m opting for a different play here.

I’m expecting a very competitive match between these two men and like the look of over 37.5 games.

Pospisil has one of the best serves on tour and surprised everyone with a 4-set win over Raonic last time out.

He is definitely the underdog here, but his serve will keep him competitive and should see him win a set at least.

As one of the toughest fighters on tour, I’d also expect RBA to hold serve consistently and for some tie-breaks to take place.

He has looked good through 2 matches, but Pospisil’s serve is his biggest test thus far.

I’d expect this match to go at least 4 sets, at which point over 37.5 looks fairly likely to occur.

US Open – Day 5

Multi: Carreno-Busta/Zverev/Tsitsipas/Djokovic
Combined Odds of $1.80

After making the cardinal sin of backing a WTA multi yesterday, we’re back on exclusively ATP multis from now on.

Today’s 4-legger starts off with Spanish veteran Pablo Carreno-Busta, who we’ve backed in each of the first two rounds.

He starts as a healthy $1.30 favourite today and I see no reason why he shouldn’t role past Berankis.

Alex Zverev has looked the goods so far and I’d expect him to take care of Mannarino today.

Currently paying $1.17, he adds some nice juice to our closing price.

We move on to Stefanos Tsitsipas, who takes on usual multi-favourite Borna Coric.

He’s a very short $1.13, but has enough matchup advantages that he should win comfortably here.

Rounding us out is Novak Djokovic, who is at typical odds of $1.04.

I’ve been on the Novak train all tournament, and I see no reason to jump off here against Jan-Lennard Struff.

Filip Krajinovic vs Davis Goffin, 3:15 am
Goffin +1.5 Sets

I’m opting with more of a traditional handicap play here, this time taking big Dave Goffin +1.5 sets.

He opened as a surprise $2.40 underdog here, where I was expecting a more even price point.

While the court doesn’t necessarily suit him, he’s still a strong player that is capable on any surface.

Krajinovic has been relatively inconsistent throughout his career and I think he’s relatively lucky to be seeded here.

He’s had an easy road to this point and Goffin is definitely a step up in opponent quality.

Goffin has the ability to break his serve and still regularly holds over 80% of his own serves on hard court.

I think he’s the overall better player and definitely has a decent chance to win this one outright.

If I’m getting an extra set on the handicap, even better.

US Open – Day 4

ATP Multi: Bautista-Agut/Cilic/Rublev/Thiem
Combined Odds of $1.70

After success with some relatively big multis over the past few days, I’m back with another 4-leg ATP multi for tomorrow’s action.

We start off with Roberto Bautista-Agut, who is currently $1.13 against Kecmanovic.

I think RBA is essentially a much better version of the same player archetype and shouldn’t have any trouble here.

Next up is Marin Cilic, who is the highest price in today’s multi at $1.30.

He matches up against Norbert Gombos, who I view as more of a clay-court specialist.

The court and conditions should suit Cilic here and he looks like a nice multi-filler at this price.

We move on to Andrey Rublev, who continues to look like one of the best youngsters in men’s tennis.

He is a $1.10 favourite over Barrere here and I think he likely rolls in straight sets.

To round things out, we’ve got #2 seed Dom Thiem at $1.05 against the great Indian hope Sumit Nagal.

The draw has opened up nicely for Thiem and I just can’t see him blowing this with a costly loss.

WTA Multi: Muguruza/Konta/Williams/Keys/Mertens
Combined Odds of $1.77

I’m usually staunchly against WTA multis, but I can see some value in this 5-legger of heavily favoured veterans.

We start off with Garbine Muguruza, currently priced at $1.18 against Pironkova.

I think Muguruza is one of the best servers on the WTA and has a lower-variance game that should suit these conditions.

Moving on to Johanna Konta at $1.17, who looks to have a strong matchup over veteran Cirstea in these conditions.

Elise Mertens is arguably the best player in the WTA right now and should be looking for a straight sets win against an unheralded opponent.

Serena Williams and Madison Keys round this out at $1.08 and $1.11 respectively.

We know what to expect from these two, who look to have very favourable matchups and will want to make deep runs at their home slam.

These 5 legs combine nicely for a $1.77 price tag, which is similar to what you’d find in a spread.

US Open – Day 3

Cristian Garin vs Mikhail Kukushkin, 2:15 am
Garin $1.70

I’m opting for a rare straight up moneyline play here, taking #13 seed Cristian Garin to beat veteran Mikhail Kukushkin at $1.70.

The 24-year-old Chilean has really come onto the scene of late, entering this US Open with the highest seeding of his career.

He looked somewhat rusty early in round 1, but fired to win 3 straight sets and a spot in the second round.

While he doesn’t have huge grand slam success, his baseline style of game is ideally suited to the Flushing Meadows hard courts.

Kukushkin is a journeyman in every sense of the word, entering this clash with a ranking of #90 and a 1-6 record in 2020.

He had a reasonable straight set win in round 1, but Garin is a different level of opponent.

I’ll take the much more talented player over the best of 5 sets here, available at strong $1.70 odds.

Multi: Goffin/Zverev/Djokovic/Coric/Shapovalov
Combined Odds of $2.03

After success on yesterday’s 4-legger, I’m going one bigger with a 5-leg multi today.

Big Dave Goffin gets us underway early, where he has a matchup advantage over the unheralded Lloyd Harris.

I think Harris is essentially a worse version of the same archetype and Goffin should roll at his $1.15 price point.

Big things are expected of Alex Zverev in this tournament and you’d have to think he gets it done against Brandon Nakashima.

Big favourites tend to do very well in ATP grand slams and his $1.20 price tag is a nice addition to the multi.

Next up we’ve got Novak, who’s essentially just in there to take us over $2.

He is $1.03 in round 2 against Kyle Edmund, a player he’s historically dominated.

We round out the 5-legger with 2 young guns in Borna Coric and Denis Shapovalov, who we were on in round 1.

These two gents are priced at $1.17 and $1.22 respectively and should roll on their preferred surfaces against little-known opponents.

5-leg multis never come easy, but I like the value we’re getting here at plus money.