Both players have had very strong runs to reach this point, but I think Zverev is somewhat overrated here at $1.35.
I don’t think there is a huge gap between these two men, and don’t mind PCB outright at $3.10 or +4.5 games at $1.80.
Zverev has had a relatively easy run to the semis, only taking care of two low seeds in Mannarino and Coric.
Carreno-Busta has had the more difficult path of the two, getting a bit of luck against Djokovic and beating Shapovalov as a big underdog.
Despite what Nick Kyrgios said, hard court has actually been PCB’s best grand slam surface, with this being his 2nd US Open semi.
Looking purely at the numbers, these two men have had very similar break/hold percentages on hard court of late.
Zverev can still be prone to making mistakes on the big stage and I think PCB’s experience and veteran savvy is a definite edge here.
I imagine we’re in for a 4 or even 5 setter here and I’m glad to be on the plus side of the number.
It may not feature any of the ‘big 4’ but this has the makings of an absolutely epic grand slam semi.
These have been the two best players in the tournament so far and both appear to be in career-best form.
Thiem’s excellent baseline game has served him well on hard court of late, backing up from his Aus Open Final earlier this year.
Medvedev has one of the best service games on tour right now and has rarely looked in trouble all tournament.
The odds suggest that these two men are very hard to separate and I’m expecting a tight 4 or 5 setter here.
Both men have played their share of tie-breaks in the past and I can see another one or two in this one.
Two relatively safe predictions to make here are that we get at least 4 sets and 1 tie-break.
Should both of those things occur, the over definitely looks more likely than not.