French Open – Men’s Final

Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal, 12:15 am
Nadal to Win $1.67

It’s very rare that you’ll get Rafael Nadal as a $1.67 favourite in a French Open match, yet that’s the situation presented to us here.

I’m tipping Nadal to win this one outright at $1.67, with a little extra on the 3-1 set market at $4.40 for some additional value.

Nadal looks like he hasn’t missed a beat after the long lay-off, winning all 18 of his sets en route to the final.

He looked especially impressive in the semis, taking care of a surging Diego Schwartzman with relative ease.

Although he deserves a ton of credit for making the final, Novak just hasn’t been as convincing during his wins.

He was pushed to a tough 4-setter by Carreno Busta in the quarters and had to go the full 5 sets against Tsitsipas in the semis.

Nadal is a major step up on both of these opponents on clay and I’m not sure the Novak serve can hold up here.

These two have faced off twice in the French Open Final before, with Nadal winning comfortably in 4 on both occasions.

He’s playing as well as he ever has, while Novak just isn’t quite 100%, and I’m expecting the same outcome in their third final here.

French Open – Women’s Final

Iga Swiatek vs Sofia Kenin, 12 am
Over 20.5 Games

While this doesn’t feature the top-end talent, it does shape up as a very competitive final that could go either way.

With that in mind, I’m leaning towards over 20.5 games in what I expect to be a tightly contested affair.

These two have a combined age of just 40, making it one of the youngest grand slam finals in history.

Both have really come into their own of late, with this being Swiatek’s first time past the fourth round and the 2nd time for reining Aus Open champion Kenin.

I think their relative inexperience will show through here, with both players making mistakes that reduce the chance of a blowout.

Swiatek has absolutely dominant en route to this point, while Kenin has played 5 very competitive matches so far.

Swiatek is probably the rightful favourite given the form she’s in, but Kenin’s fighting spirit should keep this close and competitive.

A 3-setter all but guarantees that we hit this over, but we should still get there with a competitive 2-setter.

I can see something like 7-5 6-4 playing out either way given how close they rate out, which would put us in the money.

French Open – Men’s Semi Finals

Rafael Nadal vs Diego Schwartzman, 12:05 am
Nadal 3-0 $1.95

I’m backing Nadal to win in straight sets here, currently on offer at $1.95.

Diego Schwartzman is in incredible form right now, but you’d be a brave man to bet against Nadal here.

He has been absolutely dominant en route to the semis, winning 15 straight sets and only facing one tie-break.

His usually strong return game goes up another level on clay and I’d expect him to really dominate the Schwartzman serve here.

His hold percentage is also incredibly good considering the conditions, having only been broken 4 times all tournament.

This has been a career-best run for Schwartzman, who was only 9-6 at Roland Garros for his carer before this tournament.

He did have a big 5-set win over Dominic Thiem last time out, but I think that’ll leave him fatigued here.

If Nadal can start well here, I think he goes on to win in straights.

Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas, 3:15 am
Djokovic -1.5 Sets

This shapes up as another cracking semi-final, one where I like the look of Novak -1.5 sets.

After all the mess surrounding the US Open, Novak has sauntered to the semis here, dropping only 1 set in the process.

His match against Carreno-Busta was a good warm-up for this one and I’d expect him to start fast here.

Tsitsipas has also been quite impressive in his last couple of matches, taking care of seeds Dimitrov and Rublev in straight sets.

Novak is obviously the more experienced of these two and I’d expect that to play a major role here.

I’ve got no doubt that he wants a shot at another French Open crown and I’m expecting him to come out all guns blazing.

Novak at his best wins this in 4 or less sets, regardless of how well Tsitsipas plays.

French Open – Women’s Semi Finals

Multi: Swiatek/Kvitova
Combined Odds of $1.91

We’ve got the two French Open women’s semi finals overnight and I’m going for the straightforward play of the two favourites together at $1.91.

First up, we’ve got Iga Swiatek, the 19-year-old Pole who is a $1.25 favourite against Nadia Podoroska.

Swiatek has won all 10 of her sets en route to the semis and has not been taken to a tie-break or 7-5 once all tournament.

She managed to beat some competent players along the way, taking care of #15 seed Vondrousova, fan-favourite Bouchard, and #1 seed Halep with relative ease.

There is the potential of nerves in her first senior grand slam semi, but I can’t look past her here on current form.

We’ve then got #7 seed Petra Kvitova, who is a $1.53 favourite over the #4 seed Sofia Kenin.

Petra is another player who has absolutely breezed to this point, yet to drop a set thus far.

She takes on reigning Aus Open champ Sofia Kenin, who has had a relatively tough slog to reach the semis.

While Petra much prefers to play on grass, her serve has held up very well all tournament, which I’d expect to continue here.

On the flipside, Kenin has given up a relatively high break percentage, which I think Petra can exploit here.

Paying essentially the same as a regular handicap line, I’ll take the two favourites combined at $1.91.

French Open – Day 12

Andrey Rublev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas, 1:15 am
Over 39.5 Games

I’m expecting a very competitive match between these two and I lean towards the over, currently set at 39.5 games.

These two actually played on clay last month, with Rublev taking a very close 3-setter 6-4 3-6 7-5.

Both of these men have shown resiliency when down a set or two before and I wouldn’t expect a blowout either way.

Rublev in particular has played some very close sets to this point, with 7 of his 16 sets going to at least 7-5.

Tsitsipas is the rightful favourite on paper, but the conditions should hamper his usually very effective serve.

At the current 39.5 number, we generally need 4 sets and at least 1 tie-break to occur.

Given the track record these two have, I think that’s a relatively good bet at near even money.

Novak Djokovic vs Pablo Carreno-Busta, 4:15 am
Djokovic 3-0 $1.60

This is a pure value play, where I’m going to take Novak winning 3-0 at $1.60 odds.

Considering he is an emphatic $1.05 outright favourite, I think there’s some definite line value in this number.

Rafa Nadal was also a $1.05 favourite just yesterday and his price to win 3-0 was a mere $1.36.

Novak has been in exquisite form through his first four matches, comfortably winning all 12 of his sets thus far.

He hasn’t been taken to a tie-break or even a 7-5 in any set he’s played, including in his demolition of #15 seed Khachanov last time out.

Carreno Busta is still a very capable player and probably the best one Novak has faced this tournament, yet he still can’t match Novak’s level on clay.

He gave up a ton of break points against Bautista Agut in round 3 and I’d expect him to really struggle on serve here.

Should Novak continue to limit opponent break opportunities, a 3-0 win looks likely here.

French Open – Day 11

Multi: Thiem/Nadal 3-0
Combined Odds of $1.95

Relatively slim pickings on today’s card, so I’m opting for a 2-leg multi featuring two of the game’s best.

To start with, we’ve got a cracking match between Dominic Thiem and Diego Schwartzman.

Thiem is currently favoured to win outright at $1.44 and I’m expecting him to get the job done here.

He is in career-best form and has only dropped two sets in 4 matches, despite facing a relatively tough schedule.

Schwartzman has had a very kind run to the quarters and Thiem will be a noticeable step up in opponent quality.

Over the best-of-5 sets, Thiem’s superior all-round game should be enough to get the job done.

The second leg of this multi will be Nadal winning 3-0 against Sinner, currently paying out $1.36.

Nadal has looked in exquisite form throughout this tournament, yet to drop a set or be taken to a tie-break.

He has seemingly mastered the art of serving on clay and is converting his plentiful break opportunities at a great clip.

Sinner doesn’t have a whole lot of professional experience and was only 1-3 in grand slams for his career before this tournament.

While he managed a win over an injured Zverev last time out, Nadal is too much of a step up in quality here.

At $1.95, these two men look like the most reliable options on the board today.

French Open – Day 10

Grigor Dimitrov vs Stefanos Tsitsipas, 10:15 pm
Dimitrov +5.5 Games

This has the makings of a very close and competitive match, one which I’d expect to be tighter than the odds suggest.

I think these two are fairly comparable players and will take Dimitrov at the +5.5-game handicap.

He hasn’t really faced a high level of competition, but he’s looked very good so far and won all 8 of the sets he’s played.

His serve has held up very well in these conditions and he’s creating a ton of break opportunities for himself.

Whilst Tsitsipas has won his last two matches comfortably, he really struggled to win in 5 in round 1.

Clay definitely isn’t his preferred surface and he entered this tournament with a 4-3 record at Roland Garros.

I also consider Dimitrov to be a big game player, someone who really brings it when he faces top opposition.

I’m not sure he claims the outright win, but I think he’s competitive enough to cover the generous +5.5 handicap.

Ons Jabeur vs Danielle Collins, 11:15 pm
Over 20.5 Games

This is similar to last night’s play, where I’m going to take over 20.5 games between these two ladies.

The #30 seed Jabeur has done well to reach the fourth round, but she’s played in some very competitive matches so far.

She’s played in two tense 3-setters and one competitive 2-setter, all of which have easily gone over 20.5 games.

Likewise for Danielle Collins, who has also played two very tense 3-setters, including her upset win of Muguruza last time out.

Both of these players are relatively inconsistent, losing and then regaining momentum at regular intervals.

I think there will be a fair few breaks of serve in this one and we’re unlikely to see any blowout sets.

Jabeur is prone to tie-breaks and I think there’s a good chance we see a 7-5 or 7-6 set here.

If we get 3 sets, this is essentially a lock to go over, but two competitive sets should also see us get there.

French Open – Day 8

Multi: Zverev/Nadal/Schwartzman/Thiem
Combined Odds of $1.74

I’ve decided to combine all 4 ATP favourites today to create a multi paying out $1.74.

The bulk of that price comes from Alex Zverev, who is a $1.50 favourite against Jannik Sinner.

Sinner has shown himself to be effective on clay courts, but the underlying stats suggest that Zverev is still the much better player.

As long as he can keep his composure and not beat himself, he has a good chance here.

Diego Schwartzman is also in there, the $1.13 favourite against surprise package Lorenzo Sonego.

I think Schwartzman is essentially a much better version of the same archetype and should be able to grind out a win here.

I can see it being a competitive match, but Schwartzman will cause a lot of problems on Sonego’s serve, which should be the difference.

Nadal and Thiem are at $1.01 and $1.02 respectively and are essentially just there to pad our multi that little bit extra.

These are arguably the two best clay courters in the world right now and will likely be the semi-final matchup on this side of the draw.

Elina Svitolina vs Caroline Garcia, 1:15 am
Over 20.5 Games

I’m going for a rare WTA play here, taking over 20.5 games in Svitolina vs Garcia early on Monday morning.

WTA Grand Slam matches can be a crapshoot at the best of times, which is why I generally like to go for the overs.

Both of these women have played some relatively tight matches to get to this point, with each of their 6 combined matches going over 20.5.

They both have above average serves for the tour and have held relatively well so far, which could limit break opportunities here.

Svitolina enters this tournament as the #3 seed, but the unseeded Garcia is an excellent clay court player.

I’d expect this to be closer than the rankings would suggest, with either a 3-setter or potentially close 2-setter on the cards.

Should we get that, the over 20.5 games looks very appealing.

French Open – Day 7

Multi: Berrettini/Rublev/Tsitsipas/Dimitrov
Combined Odds of $1.90

I’m going with a decent looking 4-leg multi tonight, currently paying near even money at $1.90.

We start out with Matteo Berrettini, who is a $1.17 favourite against Daniel Altmaier.

Berrettini has established himself as a force on the ATP Tour and should roll comfortably here.

We’re also taking Andrey Rublev, currently $1.20 against Kevin Anderson.

Big Kev isn’t the same player he once was and he’s always struggled on clay, which should play into Rublev’s hands.

Our 3rd leg is Tsitsipas, our shortest priced favourite at $1.13 against Bedene.

This match will definitely be on Tsitsipas’ racket and I expect him to cause Bedene a ton of problems.

Last but not least, we’ve got Dimitrov as a $1.20 favourite over Carballes-Baena.

Dimitrov has looked pretty good so far and I’d expect the conditions to really suit him here.

Overall, we’ve got 4 players at $1.20 or less who should win comfortably here and combine for a nice payout.

Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Pablo Carreno-Busta, 7:15 pm
Over 38.5 Games

I’m expecting an entertaining clash here between the two hyphenated Spaniards.

The oddsmakers can hardly separate these two and I like the look of the over here, currently set at 38.5 games.

Both of these men have a great idea of how the other one plays and you’d be hard-pressed to find a blowout here.

They’ve played each other very closely in the past and have developed somewhat of a competitive friendly rivalry.

This one is expected to go 4 or 5 sets and I’d expect most of them to be very competitive.

We basically need at least one tie-break and 4+ sets to get us towards the over here, which I think is more likely than not.

French Open – Day 6

Casper Ruud vs Dominic Thiem, 7:15 pm
Thiem 3-0

I’m taking Dominic Thiem here to win in straight sets against Casper Ruud.

Thiem has been on an absolute tear lately, winning the US Open and demolishing both Cilic and Sock in straights.

While Ruud is a decent player and is actually seeded in this tournament, he can’t match Thiem in terms of quality.

He barely got past Tommy Paul in 5 sets last time out and I struggle to see him winning a set here.

He gave up a ton of break opportunities last time out, serving only 70% on first serve and allowing 9 break opportunities to Thiem.

Thiem is one of the best returners on the tour on clay and I can see him having a field day on the Ruud serve.

If he keeps on serving as well as he has through 2 matches, this one should be a breeze.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Taylor Fritz, 9:15 pm
Over 38.5 Games

I’m finding it tough to separate these two and it appears the bookies are as well, with Fritz at $1.80 and Sonego at $2.

I think we’ll get a closely contested match here and like the look of over 38.5 games.

Fritz is one of the better servers on tour and I’d expect him to hold relatively comfortably here, even in somewhat tough conditions.

Sonego is probably the worse player on most surfaces, but the court and conditions should really suit him here.

He is definitely at his best on clay and I’d also expect him to enjoy success on his serve against Fritz.

With Fritz being one of the most prominent tie-breakers on tour, I think we get at least a 7-6 or two here.

Since this one is likely to go to 4 or 5 sets, a breaker or two definitely gives us a good chance at the over.