It’s very rare that you’ll get Rafael Nadal as a $1.67 favourite in a French Open match, yet that’s the situation presented to us here.
I’m tipping Nadal to win this one outright at $1.67, with a little extra on the 3-1 set market at $4.40 for some additional value.
Nadal looks like he hasn’t missed a beat after the long lay-off, winning all 18 of his sets en route to the final.
He looked especially impressive in the semis, taking care of a surging Diego Schwartzman with relative ease.
Although he deserves a ton of credit for making the final, Novak just hasn’t been as convincing during his wins.
He was pushed to a tough 4-setter by Carreno Busta in the quarters and had to go the full 5 sets against Tsitsipas in the semis.
Nadal is a major step up on both of these opponents on clay and I’m not sure the Novak serve can hold up here.
These two have faced off twice in the French Open Final before, with Nadal winning comfortably in 4 on both occasions.
He’s playing as well as he ever has, while Novak just isn’t quite 100%, and I’m expecting the same outcome in their third final here.