US Open – Men’s Final

Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Nadal
Nadal -1.5 Sets

Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev has had one of the most impressive seasons on the ATP this year, winning 50 matches and earning a top 5 ranking. He has had a very solid tournament to date, having not being taken to 5 sets even once. His win in the semis over Dimitrov was outstanding, relatively comfortably winning in straight sets. He has faced Nadal just once previously, a loss on the Canadian hardcourts last month.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal has absolutely been the form player of this tournament, dropping just 1 set the whole way. He was easily too good for Berrettini in the semis, taking the 3rd set 6-1. His return game has been on an elite level all tournament, averaging over 5 breaks a game so far. He showed his matchup advantages in a very comfortable 6-3 6-0 win in their only previous meeting.

Prediction: Nadal -1.5 sets

While most of you won’t be attracted to the relatively small moneyline price, Nadal to win in 4 or less is somewhat better value. Although Medvedev has been strong on hardcourts, his loss to Nadal at the Rogers Cup highlighted some of his matchup weaknesses. The narrative is also firmly in Rafa’s favour here, with a chance to claim his 19th grand slam. Ultimately, I think Nadal’s elite return ability makes life very difficult for Daniil here, winning a relatively straightforward match in 4 or less sets.

1st Set Correct Score Nadal 6-4 $4.60

Medvedev has been on a brilliant run all season, particularly showing his quality on the hardcourts. While I don’t think he has enough to beat Rafa, I definitely see him being competitive to start. Nadal has had a 6-4 set in 3 of his matches so far and generally has a pattern of breaking once per set. For a bit of extra value, I think he does just enough to edge Daniil here instead of going to a tie-break.

US Open – Women’s Final

Serena Williams vs Bianca Andreescu
Williams -1.5 Sets $1.85

Serena Williams

The G.O.A.T continues to dominate women’s tennis, putting up a 25-5 record so far in her age 37 season. She has dropped just 1 set in her 6 victories this tournament, with a straight-sets win over Svitolina being particularly impressive. She was dominant all match, winning 86% of points on 1st serve and breaking her opponent 4 times. Williams is 6-3 for her career in US Open finals and will be looking to avenge her shock loss to Osaka last year.

Bianca Andreescu

Regardless of the result, this young Canadian deserves immense credit for the quality she has shown this season. She is 44-4 in WTA singles matches this season, dropping just 2 sets during the US Open so far. Her Semi-Final win was particularly impressive, knocking off Bencic in two relatively tight sets. This is easily the biggest match of her career, having never made it past the 2nd round in a grand slam previously.

Prediction: Williams -1.5 Sets $1.85

Despite Andreescu’s outstanding form this season, I just can’t see Serena letting this incredible opportunity slip. I think she is still the much better player in this matchup and certainly won’t have the same nerves as her opponent. Her win over Svitolina showed she can mix it up with the best and I expect her shot making ability to prove too much. I expect her to win a somewhat close first set before racing away in the second, making -1.5 sets look like excellent value.

Williams 1st set 6-3 $5.50

As a secondary play, I really like the look of Serena winning the first set 6-3. This is one of the more common set scorelines in the WTA, occurring in 4 of Serena’s 6 matches this tournament. Andreescu has a solid but unspectacular serve, one which I think Serena breaks either once or twice in the first set. Assuming Serena’s serve remains as consistent as it has been all tournament, this makes the 6-3 look very plausible at tasty $5.50 odds.

US Open – Men’s Semi Finals

Daniil Medvedev vs Grigor Dimitrov
Medvedev -2.5 Games

Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev has had comfortably the best season of his career so far, earning the #5 seed through some impressive results. He is now 49-16 on the campaign, making deep runs in Cincinnati, Toronto, and Washington before this. He negotiated a seemingly difficult Quarter Final with Wawrinka, grinding him down in a dominant 4th set. He’s faced Dimitrov twice previously, going 1-1 but winning the hardcourt match.

Grigor Dimitrov

Despite falling down the rankings, Dimitrov is in the midst of a very resurgent tournament. He gutted out an epic 5-setter against Federer, coming from behind with some scintillating ground strokes. His win against Alex De Minaur in the match prior was equally impressive, highlighting his ability on hardcourt. He has never reached this stage of the US Open previously, going just 8-8 before this year.

Prediction: Medvedev -2.5 Games

Medvedev was the 4th favourite in pre-tournament betting and his excellent form so far has shown why. He has been killing it on hardcourts all season, with the surface really suited to his power-based game. I also see Dimitrov physically and emotionally fatigued after his match with Federer, giving Medvedev another edge here. With the talent, form, and rest all in his favour, a miniscule 2.5-game handicap looks like good value.

Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal
Nadal 3-0

Matteo Berrettini

Berrettini is another youngster in the midst of an extraordinary campaign. He is now 35-15 in singles matches this year, moving to #25 in the world and dominating on the grass courts. He had another incredibly exciting quarter final, beating Gael Monfils in an epic 5th set tie-break. Apparently caught up in a love triangle that also involves Nick Kyrgios, you have to wonder whether he’s fully focused here.

Rafael Nadal

The epitome of focus and professionalism, Nadal has had a predictably solid fortnight at Flushing Meadows so far. He breezed through the first 3 rounds before beating Croatian vet Marin Cilic in a relatively comfortable 4-setter. Given the form of Diego Schwartzman, his straight sets Quarter Final win was equally impressive. This is his first matchup with Berrettini, meaning there could be an early feeling out process.

Prediction: Nadal 3-0

While Berrettini deserves credit for getting this far, he just hasn’t faced an opponent of Rafa’s quality. Nadal has faced two straight competent opponents in the form of Cilic and Schwartzman, giving him ample preparation for this matchup. I think he has a noticeable speed and athleticism advantage in this one, meaning he should dictate play quite easily. Especially with how much Rafa values rest, I expect him to come out firing here and win in straight sets.

US Open – Women’s Semi Finals

Elina Svitolina vs Serena Williams
Svitolina +4.5 Games

Elina Svitolina

The young Ukrainian has emerged as a force on the WTA tour, entering this tournament as the #5 seed. She has had a stellar 2019 campaign, now going 28-15 and winning over $2.5 million in prize money. Her path to the US Open has been especially impressive, not dropping a set in any of her 5 wins so far. She now has a 16-7 record at Flushing Meadows, indicative of her strong ability on hardcourt.

Serena Williams

With the state of the WTA, it’s not surprising to see an almost 39-year-old Serena Williams make another grand slam semi. She is now 24-5 in relatively limited action this season, showing she can still mix it with the best. She faced a minor scare against McNally in round 2 but hasn’t lost a set otherwise. Her Quarter-Final win was her 100th at the US Open, showing the homecourt advantage she has.

Prediction: Svitolina +4.5 Games

Although Williams has decimated the competition so far, she hasn’t faced an opponent of Svitolina’s quality. I think her speed and athleticism can give Serena some problems and make for a relatively tight affair here. I ultimately see Serena pulling it out, although Svitolina should push her all the way in a very tense affair. A decent middle opportunity is also Serena to win in 3 sets at $4.20.

Belinda Bencic vs Bianca Andreescu
Over 21.5 Games

Belinda Bencic

Even at just 22 years of age, Bencic is already an established force on the WTA tour. She is having another strong year in 2019, going 43-16 in singles matches with 1 title to her name. She has faced some tough competition en route to the quarters, defeating Cornet, Osaka, and Vekic in consecutive matches. As someone who excels on the faster courts, she now boasts a 13-4 singles record at the US Open.

Bianca Andreescu

The 19-year old Canadian has burst onto the scene this year, earning the #15 seed for this tournament. She has gone an astonishing 43-4 in singles matches, winning both the Rogers Cup and Indian Wells in the process. She has defeated several tough opponents en route to the quarters, beating Mertens, Wozniacki, and Flipkens along the way. This is her first appearance at the US Open, let alone a Semi, and the pressure could potentially get to her.

Prediction: Over 21.5 Games

As the odds would suggest, this is a very difficult match to call. These are two of the most consistent ladies on tour this season, both of whom are in career-best form. As such, I expect a very tight affair here, one that likely goes to 3 sets. I don’t mind Bencic as an outright underdog, although over a relatively low number like 21.5 appears better value.

US Open – Day 10

Matteo Berrettini vs Gael Monfils
Over 39.5 Games

Matteo Berrettini

The Italian youngster has had a very strong 2019, entering this tournament as the #25 seed. He has an impressive 29-15 record this year, earning 2 titles in the process. He’s dropped just 3 sets in 4 matches so far, defeating Aussie duo Alex Popyrin and Jordan Thompson along the way. His straight-sets defeat of Andrey Rublev last time out showed his best might be yet to come. He doesn’t have a huge pedigree at Flushing Meadows, losing in his lone match last year.

Gael Monfils

15 years after his debut, the enigmatic Frenchman continues to be a force on tour, now sitting at #13 in the world. He is now 30-11 for the year, earning a title and over $2 million in the process. Aside from an epic 5-setter with Canadian Dennis Shapovalov in Round 3, he has won all of his contests in straight sets, showing some very impressive stroke play. He has succeeded at Flushing Meadows in the past, his strong showing here taking him to a 29-12 career record.

Prediction: Over 39.5 Games

We’ve had some success with the overs of late and I can see that continuing in this tight Quarter Finals clash. Berrettini is playing some of the best tennis of his career and his strong serve should keep him in this one. Monfils is notoriously inconsistent at grand slam events and did struggle against his toughest opponent so far. While the winner of this match is quite hard to call, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say this one goes at least 4 sets. Throw in a tie-break or two and the over 39.5 at near even money looks very tempting.

Diego Schwartzman vs Rafael Nadal
Nadal -7.5 Games

Diego Schwartzman

The diminutive Argentinian is enjoying another strong campaign, entering this tournament as the #20 seed. His form to date has been particularly impressive, winning his first 3 matches in straight sets. His 4-set upset of Alex Zverev last time out was even more impressive, especially considering the size difference. Despite being more of a clay-courter, Diego does now have a very solid 14-5 record at the US Open.

Rafael Nadal

There isn’t much more to say about Rafa, who has looked like the best and most consistent player in this tournament. After breezing through the first 3 rounds, he negotiated a potentially difficult 4-setter with Cilic last time out. His return game has been on another level all tournament, breaking the booming Croatian’s serve 6 times. His first serve has also been especially impressive, winning over 83% of points on it for the tournament.

Prediction: Nadal -7.5 Games

The tournament has really opened up for Nadal and I know he sees a great opportunity to add his 19th career slam here. Schwartzman is almost the ideal opponent for him in this spot as he is essentially a poor man’s Rafa. Nadal has the huge size and power advantage here and I expect a particularly strong service day from him. Instead of him winning in straight sets at $1.50, I like the -7.5 handicap as a better value play.

US Open – Day 9

Stan Wawrinka vs Daniil Medvedev
Over 40.5 Games

Stan Wawrinka

After another decent year on tour, Wawrinka appears to be saving his best for last. He has very comfortably made it through to the Quarters, dropping just 2 sets in the process. He dominated the last two sets against Novak last time out before his early retirement. He’s only faced Medvedev once in the past, a match he lost relatively comfortably.

Daniil Medvedev

An outstanding 48-16 season on tour has seen this Russian young gun claim the #5 seed. He was one of the pre-tournament favourites and has lived up to that billing so far. He has dropped just 3 sets during his 4 matches so far, admittedly against a relatively easy schedule. His record in lead-up tournaments was outstanding, reaching the final in Washington, Toronto, and Cincinnati.

Prediction: Over 40.5 Games

The odds suggest this will be a very close matchup and I’d be inclined to agree. Medvedev has been killing it on hard courts this year, while Wawrinka is playing his best tennis of the season. I can easily see a 4 or 5 set contest here without too many breaks of serve. 40.5 is probably on the low end of what these two are capable of and I think the value on the over is worth a play here.

Roger Federer vs Grigor Dimitrov
Over 33.5 Games

Roger Federer

He might be 38 years of age but the Fed Express still looks like one of the best players on tour. His path to the Quarters has been incredibly comfortable, dropping just 2 sets so far. After initial scares against Nagal and Dzumhur, he has destroyed both Daniel Evans and David Goffin in straight sets. With a combined 16 breaks of serve in his last 6 sets, his return game is looking as lethal as his serve.

Grigor Dimitrov

‘Baby Fed’ appears to have found some form of late and will take on his idol again here. Those who watched his match against de Minaur saw him thoroughly outclass the Aussie in a comfortable 3-set win. He has dropped only 1 set in his matches so far, with his serve looking particularly impressive. These two have matched up 7 times before and Dimitrov has been on the losing end every single time.

Prediction: Over 33.5 Games

Despite his poor record against Fed, I think Dimitrov has looked really strong of late. His serve has been especially consistent and should really keep him in this one. Fed struggled early in his 2 initial prime time matches and I could see an early Dimitrov set win here. With an outright set win or 3 fairly competitive ones, this over occurs the majority of the time.

US Open – Day 8

Alex Zverev vs Diego Schwartzman
Zverev $1.83

Alex Zverev

The young German still looks like one of the future ATP stars, entering this tournament as the #6 seed. He is in the midst of another solid campaign, going 33-17 with 1 title so far. He has faced a relatively difficult road to reach this point, losing 5 combined sets against the trio of Albot, Tiafoe, and Bedene. This is the furthest he’s ever made it at Flushing Meadows, where he now enjoys a 7-4 career record.

Diego Schwartzman

The Argentine vet is one of the more consistent players on tour, entering this tournament as the #20 seed. He also has enjoyed a solid 2019 so far, going 33-18 with a title of his own. His form thus far has been outstanding, having won all 3 of his matches in straight sets. He does have some decent pedigree at the US Open, now going 13-5 for his career.

Prediction: Zverev ML $1.83

Although Schwartzman has been in some great recent form, I think this is overvaluing him in the betting market. At nearly a foot taller than his opponent, I think Zverev’s game is much more suited to hardcourt. I don’t see Schwartzman getting a look on his serve in this one, while Zverev should have no trouble breaking. At near even money, I think the value is definitely on the #6 seed here.

Rafael Nadal vs Marin Cilic
Cilic +6.5 Games

Rafael Nadal

The #2 seed now looks like the favourite to win the tournament after Novak’s injury retirement yesterday. He has had a very cruisy run to this point, winning 2 matches in straight sets and getting a walkover against Kokkinakis. His form in lead-up tournaments was fantastic, dropping just 1 set as he won the prestigious Rogers Cup. Nadal certainly enjoys the conditions at Flushing Meadows, now 61-11 for his career.

Marin Cilic

Although not quite at his peak of a few years ago, Cilic is still a very competent #22 seed. He has negotiated a tough road to make it here, beating both Stebe and Isner in tough 4-setters. His form in the lead-up tournaments was nothing to write home about, with relatively early exits at both Cincinnati and the Rogers Cup. The US Open is still historically his best grand slam, going an impressive 36-9 for his career.

Prediction: Cilic +6.5 Games

While Nadal is rightly favoured in this matchup, the conditions here are really suited to Cilic’s game. He gets a ton of bounce on his serve on hardcourt, making it difficult even for elite returners like Nadal. Rafa also hasn’t faced anyone near Cilic’s quality during this tournament and there could be somewhat of an adjustment period. I just don’t see Cilic’s serve getting broken more than a couple of times here, making me like the generous +6.5 handicap.

US Open – Day 7

Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov
Over 38.5 Games

Alex de Minaur

Despite being unseeded, the #38 ranked Aussie has been very impressive en route to the 4th round. He had two relatively straightforward wins to start off, before an outstanding 4-set win against #7 seed Kei Nishikori. He has been killing it on first serve all tournament, landing 65% and winning 73% of those points. This strong run has taken his career US Open record to 5-2, his best in any grand slam.

Grigor Dimitrov

Dimitrov has also fallen dramatically from his heights, entering this tournament ranked #78 in the world. He has received his fair share of luck, with #12 seed Borna Coric retiring in round 2. His other 2 matches have been straightforward, dropping just 1 combined set in wins over Seppi and Majchrzak. This run comes off the back of some atrocious form, where he won just 1 of his last 7 matches in the lead-up.

Prediction: Over 38.5 Games

Neither of these men would’ve entered this tournament expecting to make the 4th round. Both have some very solid strengths, although neither has been hugely consistent throughout their career. De Minaur is probably the better player right now, although this is a huge pressure moment for him. I think the Aussie ultimately takes it in 4 or 5 sets, although the value is on the over at this number.

Novak Djokovic vs Stan Wawrinka
Novak 3-0 $2

Novak Djokovic

The Djoker is in the midst of another outstanding campaign, going 41-7 overall with 3 titles this season. The #1 seed has had a relatively simple road to round 4, having not dropped a set so far. He has excelled at Flushing Meadows throughout his career, now enjoying a 72-10 record with 3 titles. He has also largely had Wawrinka’s number, compiling a 20-5 record against him and winning 8 of 10 on hardcourt.

Stan Wawrinka

Stan has also had a decent road to the 4th round, dropping 2 sets so far and seeing off a difficult affair against Paolo Lorenzi. While not at the level he once was, his 26-16 record for the season show he still has what it takes. Despite a poor career record against Novak, he did manage an epic upset against him in the 2016 Final here.

Prediction: Djokovic 3-0 $2

Novak looks to be in career best form right now, while Stan has commenced the gradual decline. I think Novak’s defence and athleticism prove too much in this one as Stan’s inconsistencies ultimately prove his downfall. He knows the importance of recovery during a grand slam fortnight and won’t show Stan any mercy here. Novak has proven his ability to $1.17 for the outright win isn’t hugely valuable, although $2 for straight sets looks very tasty.

US Open – Day 6

John Isner vs Marin Cilic
Over 44.5 Games

John Isner

The big-serving American is still going strong, entering this tournament as the #14 seed. He has had a solid 2019 to date, going 25-12 in singles matches with 1 title to his name. He is yet to drop a set all tournament, with two relatively routine wins to start off. Flushing Meadows has been good to him previously, sporting a 28-12 career record before this year.

Marin Cilic

Still a strong force on tour, the Croatian vet enters this tournament as the #23 seed. 2019 hasn’t been his best season, compiling a 15-13 record and claiming under $1 million in prize money. He has also enjoyed 2 comfortable wins so far, dropping just 1 set in the process. He is an outstanding 35-9 for his career at the US Open, claiming his lone grand slam here in 2014.

Prediction: Over 44.5

With two absolutely elite servers, breaks will be at a premium in this match. The oddsmakers can’t really split these two, making me think we’re in for a tight affair here. If we get even 4 sets, I think 1 or 2 tie-breakers should carry us over in this one.

Gael Monfils vs Denis Shapovalov
Monfils -1.5 Games

Monfils

Monfils is another veteran still competing fiercely, enjoying the current #13 ranking. His 2019 to date has been very impressive, compiling a 28-11 record and winning a title. He is yet to drop a set in this tournament, only being taken to a tie-break 1 time. He has a solid record at the US Open for his career, going 25-12 before this year.

Shapovalov

The flashy young Canadian enters this tournament with a ranking of #33. He has had an indifferent 2019 so far, going 20-19 in singles matches with no titles. He’s looked excellent in the first 2 rounds, dispatching of Auger-Aliassime and Laaksonen with ease. The US Open is statistically his best grand slam, now boasting a strong 7-2 record.

Prediction: Monfils -1.5 Games

While these are two flashy and exciting competitors, Monfils is ultimately the more consistent of the two. I think he has the patience and all-around game to trouble Shapovalov here and expect him to win relatively comfortably. Given his ability to win sets comfortably, I particularly like the -1.5 games handicap here.

US Open – Day 5

David Goffin vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Over 36.5 Games

David Goffin

The talented Belgian has had a mixed campaign, although still enters this tournament as the #15 seed. He is 26-19 in singles matches this year, failing to win a title so far. His path to the 3rd round has been relatively straightforward, dropping only a single set. His career record at Flushing Meadows is relatively poor, going just 10-7 in his prior attempts.

Pablo Carreno Busta

The veteran Spaniard continues to hang around on tour, currently ranked #69 in the world. He has had an indifferent 2019, going 15-15 in singles matches with 0 titles. He managed an impressive upset of #18 seed Guido Pella in round 1, taking care of Berankis in 4 hard-fought sets last time out. The US Open is historically his best grand slam, boasting an 11-5 record before this year.

Prediction: Over 36.5 Games

Despite PCB’s recent fall in the rankings, he’s still a very competitive player on tour. Goffin isn’t having his best season and I expect this match to be closer than the oddsmakers. I’m predicting a tough 4-setter in this one, without too many service breaks. Assuming we get a tie-break or two thrown in, over 36.5 looks like a solid play.

Stan Wawrinka vs Paolo Lorenzi
Lorenzi +8.5 Games

Stan Wawrinka

Although at the tail end of his career, the Stanimal still enters this tournament as the #23 seed. His 2019 has been solid but unspectacular, with a 23-16 record and a few decent finishes. He seems to struggle to close out grand slam matches in straights, winning two tough 4-setters to reach this point. He has been excellent at Flushing Meadows for his career, going 40-12 with 1 title win.

Paolo Lorenzi

Now 37 years old, the veteran Italian is still plugging away at a ranking of #135. He has sparsely competed in 2019, going just 4-9 so far. His first two matches were particularly gruelling, both resulting in epic 5-set wins. The US Open is easily his best slam, sporting a 7-7 record in his previous appearances.

Prediction: Lorenzi +8.5

Wawrinka often seems to play down to his competition in a grand slam setting. Lorenzi is as competitive as they come and I expect him to make things difficult on Stan here. Despite being a heavy underdog, I think he has a good shot at winning a set here, or at least coming close. As such, the +8.5 games represents good value for what should be a relatively tight affair.